Talking Horses

Tuesday 9 October 2012

Ten To Follow - Jumps Season 2012-2013

On The Hunt - The highly progressive Hunt Ball looks one to watch this season.
The flat season is by no means over but the return of the jumps season proper is very nearly upon us.

Following the exploits of Frankel, Camelot et al this summer, the jumps stars have a lot to live up to but with us still in the midst of a golden generation of National Hunt horses there is every chance that they can put up a campaign to rival the fireworks we’ve seen on the flat in 2012.

With the more household names of recent years coming to the twilight of their careers or retired already, a new wave of jumping superstars are ascending to the throne and I’ve decided to highlight ten of them.

These are by no means under the radar horses and aren’t exactly radical or original choices, but they are perhaps not quite as well known as some of their peers yet still look set for a huge 2012-2013 campaign.

So in no particular order let’s take a look at ten to follow for the upcoming jumps season:-

1. Boston Bob – Last season’s Albert Bartlett second Boston Bob is a machine, make no mistake about that. In all honesty he should have won the Albert Bartlett at the festival back in March. I personally wasn’t overly enamoured with the ride Ruby Walsh gave him that day having to come from so far back to try and peg back the sadly no longer with us Brindisi Breeze under a masterful ride from the sadly no longer with us Campbell Gillies; and in the end it was just too big of an ask for him to reel the winner in up the gruelling Cheltenham hill.

Prior to that though he’d looked a beast, winning four in a row, including – most impressively – sluicing up under a penalty in a G2 Leopardstown hurdle. A novice chase career beckons this season and for my money the taller obstacles should bring out further improvement in the lightly-raced seven-year-old. He’s already popular in the betting for the RSA and even now looks a future Gold Cup contender.

Selected Early Odds: RSA 10/1

2. Flemenstar – Flemenstar caught everyone’s attention when running away with the G1 Irish Arkle back in late January; he scored by 19l that day but it could have been as far as he’d liked really. Talk of Cheltenham instantly followed that stunning performance but perhaps wisely given that he’d more than likely have met the incredible Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, the festival was by-passed.

Instead Flemenstar opted to take in a rather modest G3 at Naas the weekend before the Cheltenham festival began, once again trouncing the opposition and more excitingly doing so over 2m4f this time. He was also kept at the interim distance for his most recent success, another wide margin win in the G1 Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse.

Distance seemingly being no obstacle to the seven-year-old means that incredibly he’s close to the head of the market for the Champion Chase, the Ryanair and the Gold Cup at Cheltenham; hopefully we’ll see him make his first foray on to English shores this season, but even if we don’t you can all but guarantee that Flemenstar is only just getting started.

Selected Early Odds: Champion Chase 20/1, Ryanair 7/1, Gold Cup 12/1

3. Last Instalment – Staying in Ireland, we have a horse that’s jumping could be an art form. Last Instalment forms part of one of the strongest hands there is at the moment for Gigginstown Stud, who literally have four or five horses that could feasibly win the Gold Cup this year – including this one.

Last Instalment has lost only twice from 9 career starts and began his career in the most impressive of fashions when scoring by 27l. He is unbeaten over fences and was my idea of the RSA winner last year until he unfortunately picked up an injury that ruled him out of a likely Cheltenham run.

The first time he really caught my attention was when winning a G1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas last year when easily accounting for his owner’s more fancied horse First Lieutenant by 6l after jumping him silly. Given that his foe that day went on to be a 2½l second in the RSA you’d have to think that had Last Instalment been able to take his chance at Cheltenham this year that he’d have been very hard to beat in the RSA.

Sadly though it wasn’t to be and the last time we saw him was when winning the G1 Dr. Moriarty at Leopardstown in February. Providing he’s back to fitness and retains the abundance of ability we saw in him last year Last Instalment could remain unbeaten over fences for some time to come yet.

Selected Early Odds: King George 50/1, Gold Cup 25/1

4. Gevrey Chambertin – Much like Noble Mission will forever be known as “Frankel’s brother” this horse until now has been known mainly as “Grands Crus’ brother”, but Gevrey Chambertin has shown enough in his fledgling career to date to suggest that he might be stepping out of that grey shadow sooner rather than later.

An astounding 30l winner on his debut in a bumper at Ffos Las in the mud, Gevrey Chambertin more than justified the hype surrounding him. In the aftermath of that performance trainer David Pipe talked about putting him away for the season to allow him time to develop and grow in to himself but he was obviously bouncing at home and thus he made his second start in the big bumper at Newbury on the rearranged Super Saturday card in February.

He led most of the away once again over the extended 2 miles but was caught in the last furlong, he probably wouldn’t have won but in getting hampered badly at the death by the eventual winner he ended up fourth.

Still, he lost nothing in defeat and much like his brother a step up in trip this season over hurdles is likely to bring about further improvement. He’s not quoted in the markets for any of the big ante-post races at present but Gevrey Chambertin should certainly be watched for in novice hurdle races at any distance this coming season.

5. Overturn – Probably my favourite horse in training over either discipline, and that’s possibly because he so effortlessly switches between them. ‘The little horse that could’ enjoyed another fine term over obstacles last winter and didn’t fare too badly on the level either this summer.

There’s not much we don’t know about this horse over hurdles and on the flat but the reason he’s one to watch for this coming season is that a novice chase career beckons.

Last seen fading in to eighth in the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot, he’d previously been a game second in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham before posting another gallant bid in the mud in the Chester Cup, also finishing second.

He’s already won some of the biggest races on the flat and over hurdles and reports suggest he’s already schooling fantastically over fences so could soon be adding big chase races to that long list of accolades. One thing is for sure, if he’s able to put up the same sort of front-running displays over the big obstacles that he’s been capable of over hurdles and on the flat then with his never say die attitude he could be extremely difficult to peg back.

Selected Early Odds: Arkle 14/1, Champion Hurdle 40/1

6. Hinterland – Paul Nicholls’ French import looked a novice hurdler to follow last season after a comfortable debut win at Cheltenham, but he then failed to justify long odds on favouritism there when beaten on his second start.

He managed third in a competitive handicap hurdle back at Cheltenham in January before falling in the Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree at the end of the season. In all honesty though his hurdles campaign was a formality as he always looked a chaser and the four-year-old now has the opportunity to strut his stuff over fences.

Nicholls has recently said he may have to start him off over hurdles again this season as he’s not been able to school him quite as much as he’d have liked and having fallen on his last run wouldn’t want to throw him straight out over fences. There have still been some very positive vibes coming out of the yard about Hinterland’s future though and he looks an exciting prospect for the season.

Selected Early Odds: Arkle 16/1, RSA 33/1

7. Simonsig – This one is probably the least original selection on the list but it does feel slightly like in the midst of all the Sprinter Sacre hype that Simonsig has not quite got the attention and recognition he deserves after a near flawless novice season.

Nicky Henderson’s speedy grey would be unbeaten if not for a defeat to the very useful Fingal Bay at Sandown in December, but the manner in which he landed the Neptune at Cheltenham and then destroyed a good field at Aintree more than atoned for that minor blip in what is otherwise a stellar career to date.

There had been talk of him staying hurdling this year – he’s still second favourite for the Champion Hurdle – but at his open day Nicky Henderson seemed to suggest that it would be a novice chase campaign this season over the minimum distance, meaning the Arkle would be his ultimate goal, prompting comparisons with his aforementioned monstrous stable mate and also offering the tantalising thought of a clash between the two of them down the line.

Neither option has been flat out confirmed yet but wherever Simonsig ends up for Cheltenham he looks set to be at the head of the market after what will hopefully have been another impressive season.

Selected Early Odds: Arkle 4/1, Champion Hurdle 15/2, RSA 14/1, World Hurdle 33/1

8. Hunt Ball – No horse enjoyed quite as rapid an ascension through the chasing ranks last year as Hunt Ball did. Going from an official rating of just 68 in November his incredible run saw him finish the season rated 157 after an excellent third in his first attempt at G1 level in the Bowl at Aintree.

His story would be special in any circumstances but eccentric owner Anthony Knott just adds more charm to Hunt Ball’s wonderful tale. After Hunt Ball’s emphatic festival win in the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase, Knott speculated that it could be the Gold Cup in 2013 for his star horse and if he continues to improve as he did last season who’s to say he can’t be a leading contender for the blue ribbon come this season’s festival.

Hunt Ball is likely to start out in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham, for which he is currently challenging for favouritism, and that should give us an idea of where the horse is after a summer break but trainer Kieran Burke has reported the horse to be in good heart coming in to the season which will hopefully mean the great story of Hunt Ball has several more chapters to be written yet.

Selected Early Odds: Paddy Power Gold Cup 7/1, King George 20/1, Ryanair 20/1, Gold Cup 25/1

9. Teaforthree – Last season I nailed my colours to the mast for the Grand National pretty early on with Cappa Bleu and he did me proud running in to fourth on the biggest day of the season. This year it’s still a little early to be picking out a National horse, but one horse that I think looks like a potential National horse in the making is Rebecca Curtis’s Teaforthree.

Tony McCoy does have a link to Rebecca Curtis’s small(ish) yard but the fact that he’s ridden this horse on most of his race course appearances says a great deal about the esteem in which the horse is held.

After a decent enough novice hurdle campaign, the move to the larger obstacles brought even greater improvement out in the eight-year-old last season. He rather fluffed his lines a bit when pulled up in the Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day but bounced right back at the end of the season landing a low key Chepstow handicap before becoming a Cheltenham Festival winner when winning the amateur riders National Hunt Chase.

As a second season chaser, the real staying tests will surely be right up Teaforthree’s street and at this very early stage he’s my idea of a major Grand National player, to hopefully give the race the great story it so desperately needs this year.

Selected Early Odds: Grand National 33/1

10. Weapon’s Amnesty – Where do you start with Weapon’s Amnesty? A dual festival winner seemingly with the world at his feet before a serious injury kept him off the track for the last two seasons.

Now back in training with Charles Byrnes Weapon’s Amnesty is reportedly pleasing the trainer and connections are crossing their fingers that everything remains okay with the horse.

His RSA win in 2010 reads very impressively when you look at the horses he easily beat that day:- Burton Port, Long Run & Diamond Harry among others. He clearly loves Cheltenham having also won the Albert Bartlett in 2009 and should he remain fit and make it to the festival this year he must be a lively contender for the Gold Cup, not that Gigginstown are short on a contender or two for that race at present.

Whether he contests the Gold Cup or not it’ll be great to have back a very talented horse after such a long lay off, and hopefully he’ll have retained the ability he showed when smashing up a future Gold Cup winner two and a half years ago. He may have had a long lay-off but it’s important to remember he’s still only nine which gives him a good couple of years yet at what are usually consider the peak ages for chasers.

Selected Early Odds: Gold Cup 33/1

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