King George 2013 Ante-Post

Late Chris-mas Present - 2012 runner-up Captain Chris looks a big price for the King George

With the market for Kempton’s festive showpiece getting Pricewised this week, now is probably a good time to start thinking about the big race which will be upon us now in just three weeks.

The King George is always a fabulous Boxing Day treat and is as much of a Christmas tradition for racing enthusiasts as awful jumpers and family arguments.

More so than getting that one present you really wanted finding the winner of the three mile contest can really make your Christmas.

In spite of the absence of the great Kauto Star last year’s renewal still delivered a cracker as Long Run and Captain Chris fought out an extremely narrow finish.

The latter horse has run creditably in defeat in this race two years in a row now and as the market currently stands he looks the value bet in the race to me as he aims to go one better than last year.

Hennessy Gold Cup 2013 Preview

You Can't Stop The Rock - Rocky Creek is a strong Hennessy fancy

This Saturday sees the staging of probably my favourite national hunt race of the season, the steeped in tradition Hennessy Gold Cup.

The Newbury race has been won by some greats of the jumping game over the years, Mandarin, Arkle and the mighty Denman all won the race twice while Mill House, Burrough Hill Lad and One Man also feature on the roll of honour.

Over the last decade the race has consistently been a vital piece of form for the remainder of the season, producing multiple Grade 1 winners, whilst also setting the pulse racing with thrilling narratives throughout the race.

Denman’s three runs in the race (his two post-Gold Cup win especially) were some of the most emotionally charged races I’ve ever witnessed and Bobs Worth’s win in the race last year was another pulsating afternoon of sport.

This year’s renewal might not quite have that sort of star power, but in a typically competitive running we could potentially have an array of stars emerge from the race when it’s all said and done.

Cheltenham 2014 Ante-Post – Triumph Hurdle

What's All The Huss About? - Royal Irish Hussar looks a good bet for the Triumph

My regular Festival Focus pieces for all the big races at the Cheltenham Festival will begin in the New Year, but between now and then if any decent looking bets appeal to me I’m keen to get them up and on.

It’s one of the most difficult weeks of the year to find a winner (Sprinter Sacre aside) so the stronger your ante-post portfolio is finding just one winner might be enough to nearly cover your week.

The Triumph Hurdle is a notoriously difficult race to take a long range view in with many of the likely participants not even appearing on a race course until the weeks leading up to the festival – last season Our Conor whilst having run earlier in the season didn’t really announce his arrival on the juvenile hurdling scene until 9th February.

That said, we’re not even in to December yet but I think I may have found one that will certainly go close in the Triumph this year if not take all the beating.

Nicky Henderson’s ex-Aidan O’Brien inmate Royal Irish Hussar is unbeaten over timber and couldn’t really have been more impressive in notching the last two of those three wins.

The latter victory was in the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham and he has already proven he can come up the hill strongly albeit in a lesser race.

He can currently be backed at 16/1 with one bookie, with others having him in at 8/1 which obviously is good value. The concern is it is Ladbrokes that have him at the big price and they famously have an ear to Coolmore which would seem to suggest that for whatever they aren’t convinced by this son of Galileo, yet.

I am though and on Timeform figures he’s already put up a rating good enough to have made the frame in last year’s Triumph.

Another strong effort in his next run and you’d think Royal Irish Hussar would be single figures across the board, so now is the time to back him before the magic sign follow suit and cut him for the final day opener.

Recommendation:

0.5pt e/w Royal Irish Hussar @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

Betfair Chase 2013 Preview

Pipe Dynaste-y - The Pond House form can continue in the Betfair Chase

It often seems like it takes forever for the national hunt season to really get going but then once it does there’s no time to catch your breath.

This Saturday truly is another day worthy of the ‘super’ tag so often haphazardly thrown around these days and the feature race of the day looks set to be an absolute humdinger.

Many are dubbing it a mini Gold Cup and they wouldn’t be far wrong with a mostly high class field of ten currently standing firm.

Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth makes his seasonal reappearance, as does last year’s winner of this race Silviniaco Conti and last year’s leading novice chaser Dynaste also makes his first start of the campaign as we get to see just how good he actually is.

Throw in former Gold Cup winner Long Run, the highly-rated Cue Card and the enigmatic veteran Tidal Bay and you have the ingredients for (forgive me) a mouth-watering Lancashire hotpot.

Top Ten Performances of the Flat Season 2013

There may have been a rather large Frankel-shaped hole in the 2013 flat season but you can’t live in the past and thankfully new equine stars emerged, stepped up and thrilled with their performances over the past season.

Across the globe we were witness to some incredible displays that will live long in the memory and contributed to another fantastic season of flat racing.

As is now customary, my countdown of the ten performances that stood out most to me over the past season follow and as always my selections are based on a tried and tested method of form, visual impression and most importantly: bias.

The idea of the list if to highlight individual brilliance and horses that single-handedly stole the show so many of the pulsating Toronado-Dawn Approach clashes and a lot of the Breeders’ Cup action doesn’t make it in given that a lot of those races’ magic was down to more than one horse.

Breeders' Cup 2013 Preview

Verry Good - Verrazano can land the Dirt Mile to start Breeders' Cup weekend with a bang

This weekend the 29th Breeders’ Cup world championships will take place at beautiful Santa Anita in California.

It’s a weekend of the year that I always truly look forward to and this year is no different, with numerous other countries and courses trying to emulate the model the meeting has been somewhat diluted in recent years, at least on these shores, but for me it is still the original and the best and no one but no one does this sort of thing better than the Americans.

There’s been some incredible races over the weekend in recent years and we could be set to usher some more great memories in to the annuls of history this coming Friday and Saturday.

With fourteen races over the two days there’s a lot to study going in to the weekend so for the purposes of this preview I’m going to stick to the races in which I have a strong ante-post conviction, however I will still take them in their running order over the two days.

Champions' Day 2013 Preview

Dexter's Fab - Jack Dexter is a major player in the Sprint on Champions' Day

This Saturday is British Champions’ Day at Ascot as the 2013 flat turf season draws to a close.

Twelve months on from the mighty Frankel’s last race the card doesn’t have quite the same excitement around it as a year ago but an incredible day’s racing still looks in prospect in spite of a potential mud bath.

Rather than focus on just the one race in great detail here, given the strength in depth on the card, it seemed right to offer a more succinct take on each of the Group races on the card and to try and pick out my idea of the winner or a horse that offers some each-way value.

The card will begin at 1.45pm with the stayers in the Long Distance Cup (Group 3) and the focal point of the race will rightly be the Queen’s Gold Cup heroine Estimate (9/4).

I tried to get her beat at Royal Ascot and looked a fool for it so I won’t be doing that again here. She looks far and away the most likely winner with the best form to her name, previous course and distance wins in her locker and form on soft ground.

Dewhurst Stakes 2013 Preview

Stars and Strips - Outstrip can shine in the Dewhurst on Future Champions' Day

This Saturday its Future Champions’ Day at Newmarket, featuring a plethora of Group races including the Group 1 Middle Park and the Group 1 Dewhurst, won last year by the brilliant Dawn Approach.

Last year’s Dewhurst saw Dawn Approach go off at a very short-price indeed and though this year’s Coventry winner War Command looks set to be the hot favourite for the race, he faces a field of five other horses including Godolphin’s talented Outstrip.

War Command turned in arguably the most visually impressive victory of the meeting at Royal Ascot when running away with the Coventry and immediately shot to the head of the betting for next year’s classics. The form of the Coventry hasn’t exactly worked out fantastically though and War Command himself gave it another knock when beaten at Group 1 level in the Phoenix Stakes in August.

The son of War Front soon bounced back to winning ways when landing the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh though and leads the way here on ratings. Trainer Aidan O’Brien could have run any number here and the fact that he relies chiefly on War Command (with Friendship likely to make the running) suggests a big run is expected and thus he remains the one to beat.

At the prices though, there’s no need to make too much of a case to side with Outstrip however.

Ten To Follow - National Hunt 2013 - 2014

As the last horse crossed the line in the St. Leger – the horse that I backed incidentally – winter inched one step closer, and we are now only a matter of weeks away from the national hunt season kicking in to high gear.

Thus it is time for my now bi-annual look at ten to follow from the upcoming season.

Last year’s ten horses did us proud over the course of the season, with many running well at the highest level on multiple occasions. I’ve tried to be a bit more creative with this jumps season’s ten to follow whilst still not going too left of centre. By that I mean sticking to horses that have the potential to make it to the top of the tree over whatever obstacle it is they end up lining up against in 2013-2014, but trying to avoid the glaringly obvious.

So without further ado, here are my ten horse to follow for the 2013-2014 National Hunt season:-

St. Leger 2013 Preview

Feather in the Cap - Cap O'Rushes looks the value in the St. Leger

The 2013 classic season is rounded out on Saturday by the oldest classic of them all the Ladbrokes St. Leger.

The stamina test run over an extended 1m6f at Doncaster’s Town Moor course will pit the best of this season’s three-year-old colts and fillies against each other; and the St. Leger is the one classic that is renowned for throwing up a surprise or two, as evidenced last year when Godolphin ‘outsider’ Encke ruined the Camelot Triple Crown dream.

The Leger has arguably become the forgotten classic in recent years and without the Camelot story going in to this year’s race, the 2013 renewal hasn’t really received the hype and coverage that 2012’s race did. Without a truly stand-out star from this year’s classic generation in the line-up as well the race doesn’t quite have the excitement and anticipation built around it this year that it has in the past. That said what we do have is an extremely competitive looking race and one that looks wide open in terms of potential winners.

The Oaks winner and the Derby second and third all line-up, as well as a host of other potential improvers, creating a really intriguing field for the 2013 St. Leger.

Sprint Cup Preview 2013

Mos Be Love - Gerald Mosse reunites with Reckless Abandon on Saturday

As the flat season enters its final couple of furlongs there is no shortage of top class action this weekend with two huge Group 1 races either side of the Irish Sea this Saturday.

Over in Ireland there is the Irish Champion Stakes whilst on our own shores Haydock host the Sprint Cup.

On paper the race looks a lay-up for the season’s sprinting star Lethal Force to notch his third Group 1 of the year having already taken the Diamond Jubilee and the July Cup this term.

He did meet defeat last time out in a hotly run race in France but his second to the world class Moonlight Cloud – who has subsequently won arguably the race of the season when smashing the likes of Dawn Approach and Declaration of War in the Jacques Le Marois – is hardly anything to be ashamed of.

Recently bought for a small fortune by Cheveley Park Stud for breeding purposes Lethal Force can enhance his stud value further here by winning yet another Group 1 sprint.

With old rival Society Rock sadly out of the race through injury it could be a horse from his own yard that gives Lethal Force most to think about here though.

Trainer Clive Cox has thus far this season kept his two star sprinters apart, but this time Reckless Abandon lines up against his stable mate and you may get a sense of deja vu here with me tipping Reckless Abandon in a big Haydock sprint, as I fancied him on his seasonal reappearance in the Temple Stakes when he went down a gallant third to Kingsgate Native and a horse that runs in the same colours as Lethal Force Swiss Spirit, both of whom will again take their chances here.

Great St. Wilfrid 2013 Preview

Winning Hand - Baccarat can end Richard Fahey's Great St. Wilfrid duck

Ripon is probably my favourite racecourse in the country. It holds great sentimental value as I’ve been going there with my family since I was a child and remains one of the nicest most picturesque courses currently in operation.

It’s not often however that you really get chance to preview a big race from the course, but with Ripon’s showpiece race of the season coming up this Saturday the opportunity has arisen.

The Great St. Wilfrid has a huge £70,000 of prize money on offer this year and as a result has attracted a monster list of entries including some thriving, high class animals.

Photos of past winners of the race adorn the walls of the bar at the course, and trying to pick out who will be joining them is never easy, however this time around a horse is entered that could end up being a lot better than this race in time.

Incredibly, top Yorkshire trainer Richard Fahey has never won Ripon’s feature race of the season but in Baccarat he looks to have an ace up his sleeve.

King George 2013 Preview

What's that coming over the Hill? - Supplemented Hillstar can step up and win the King George

Just before the time of writing this preview the 2013 renewal of the King George lost a lot of its gloss with the terrible career-ending injury to favourite St. Nicholas Abbey.

At the time of writing it is unknown whether the injury will also be life-ending, but hopefully St. Nic can be saved and can go on to the stud career I always expected of him.

This year’s King George was already just missing something for me and with St. Nic now out too it really does feel a little lackluster. That said, it does look competitive stuff and could end up being a wide open renewal of a race that has provided some real thrills over the last few years.

The race has always had a distinctly international flavour and this year’s renewal is no different, and what better place to start than with the highest rated horse in training in the world Cirrus Des Aigles.

Eclipse Preview

You Can Call Me Al - Al Kazeem can make it 3 straight Group 1s in the Eclipse

Last year’s Coral-Eclipse was won in battling style by John Gosden’s Nathaniel on his first start of the campaign. This year’s renewal won’t feature any returning stars but will however pretty much be a re-run of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes from Royal Ascot two weeks ago.

In that respect there’s not overly much more you can say about the leading protagonists from the Royal meeting’s Wednesday feature that wasn’t said then, because if Al Kazeem turns up in the same form he’s been in so far this season, as he did in the Prince of Wales’s, he’ll be extremely hard to get the better of; at a track he’s already recorded a victory at this season when landing the Gordon Richards Stakes.

The presence of Mars does add a little more intrigue to proceedings with him representing the classic generation and having run well all season pitched in at the highest level, and with a favourable weight for age allowance here over what could potentially be his optimum trip he could be set to maybe spring a little bit of an upset.

Irish Derby Preview

Another Approach? - Libertarian can become the latest New Approach offspring to land a classic

With Royal Ascot only a few days removed it’s great to have classic action again this weekend with the Irish Derby taking place at the Curragh.

Won last year in a mud bath by Camelot, Ballydoyle will be hoping to follow up in the 2013 renewal without it taking as much out of their Epsom hero as it seemed to twelve months ago.

The ground should be nowhere near as horrendous as it was last year and hopefully a few more than the five that went to post twelve months ago will line-up here.

Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore operation have won the race every year since 2006 and they would have to be hopeful that Epsom victor Ruler Of The World will add to that impressive record for them in 2013.

The unbeaten colt became the first horse since Shergar to follow up victory in the Chester Vase with victory in the Epsom classic and the son of Galileo currently heads up the betting looking to make it four wins out of four.

Unraced at two, Ruler Of The World has improved with every outing in 2013 and it’s hard to know still just how good he can be. However given how close the first five all finished to each other at Epsom, it is difficult to make a case on the form book for him being as short in the market as he is at present.

Obviously the Ballydoyle stranglehold on the race is also factored in to that price, but at just under three times the price Epsom second Libertarian looks a better bet from a value perspective.

Royal Ascot Preview - What Culture

I'm previewing all the big Royal Ascot races for 2013 over at What Culture.

You can find my individual race previews and selections in the sport section of the site under the Horse Racing banner or by clicking here or following the link below.

The site are also offering some great sign-up bonuses for new customers who click through and open accounts with Paddy Power and Bet365.

You can still read my Talking Horses Royal Ascot day one preview here but the rest of the week's Royal Ascot races will be exclusively over at What Culture.

Royal Ascot 2013 Previews - What Culture

Royal Ascot 2013 Preview - Day One

Royal Kingdom - American superstar can add a Royal win to his tally at Ascot

The flat racing season season’s premier festival takes place next week as thousands will descend upon Ascot for the glitz and glamour of the Royal meeting.

Last year’s Royal Ascot will be hard to live up to thanks to the exploits of Frankel and Black Caviar but Royal Ascot 2013 looks to have a great chance of proving equally as thrilling and exciting as twelve months ago.

Day one of the meeting is by far the best day in terms of the actual racing, with a staggering three consecutive Group 1 races to kick off the first day of the five day extravaganza followed by the Group 2 Coventry Stakes for two-year-olds.

With a dearth of top class racing, Tuesday definitely gets Royal Ascot off to a flying start, and here is a run down of the four Group races that will launch Royal Ascot 2013.

The Derby 2013 Preview

Battle of the Bolge - Can Jim Bolger & Dawn Approach repel the Coolmore ranks in the Derby?

It’s the most prestigious classic of the season on Saturday as Epsom plays host to The Derby.

With fifteen horses still in the reckoning to tackle the downs’ demanding camber and undulations as of this morning, the time seemed right to run the rule over the contenders, not all of whom are guaranteed to run as things stand.

So here in ascending order based on current price (starting with the favourite) is my runner-by-runner guide to this year’s Epsom Derby:

Dawn Approach – Unbeaten 2000 Guineas winner and heavy favourite. Has won seven from seven including three Group 1s and Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Unraced beyond 1m but sire won the Derby and looks like he should stay and handle unique demands of Epsom. Champion European two-year-old in 2012 and seems to improve with every run, dominant in 2000 Guineas and trained by a genius – the one to beat.

Temple Stakes 2013 Preview

Reck-ing Crew - Unbeaten Reckless Abandon returns in Saturday's Temple Stakes

The big Saturday races keep on coming now for the foreseeable future and with Group racing on both sides of the Irish Sea this Saturday we look set for another fantastic weekend of equine action.

It is domestically that we stay for this preview though, and the 5f contest that is the Temple Stakes at Haydock, part of the British Champions Series.

Won impressively last year by Bated Breath and one for the real speed merchants out there this year’s renewal has a couple of interesting angles to it but doesn’t exactly look a vintage running.

That said I’m particularly excited for this year’s Temple Stakes as it looks set to be the three-year-old debut of one of my favourite juveniles from last season Reckless Abandon.

Lockinge Stakes 2013 Preview

What Is It Good For? - Declaration Of War is taken to land the Lockinge

Last year’s Lockinge was won by the brilliant Frankel as the first port of call in a season for the ages. The chance of us seeing a horse put up a performance of that sort of standard twelve months on is slim to none, but the 2013 renewal of the JLT Lockinge Stakes still looks an intriguing race.

Given that Frankel has already been mentioned only a paragraph in, it seems right that we would start with a horse that twice chased home Sir Henry Cecil’s wonder-colt last season.

Godolphin’s Farhh enjoyed a great season in 2012 in spite of only landing the Thirsk Hunt Cup. He was a runaway winner of that race but then developed a serious case of seconditis as the season wore on.

He was unlucky at Royal Ascot getting no run in the Prince of Wales’s eventually finishing third behind So You Think and Carlton House and then it was seconds all the way.

He narrowly went down to Nathaniel in the Eclipse, then dropped back to a mile to chase Frankel home in the Sussex, it was back up to 1m2f to again play for places behind Frankel in the Juddmonte before he was again narrowly beaten in France by Moonlight Cloud over a mile.

Every single one of the aforementioned efforts since the Hunt Cup were at Group 1 level and you’d be hard pressed to find a more consistent horse in training. Many people think he can finally land the big one on Saturday and he is one of the more versatile horses out there, but I have my reservations.

Top Ten Performances of the Jumps Season 2012 - 2013

Sol Power - Solwhit and Paul Carberry winning the Liverpool Hurdle in April.

Now may seem like somewhat of a strange time to be discussing the jumps season just gone given that we have now already had our first classics of the season but in order to properly cap off my coverage of the 2012-2013 national hunt season I need to put my top ten performances of the season out there.

We definitely enjoyed a vintage jumps season in 2012-2013 and many of the horses and jockeys that made it such an incredible six months feature in this countdown.

The majority of the entries are big race wins at the highest level but there are also a couple of performances from handicaps that could scarcely be believed as well as some visually stunning performances that may not have carried as much weight as some others form-wise.

Jockeyship also plays a factor in the ranking of some of these as we also saw some rides for the ages this season just gone in addition to all the equine talent that lit up the winter.

At the end of the day horse racing has always been, and always will be, a game of opinions and this list merely offers my opinion on just what the top ten performances of the 2012-2013 jumps season were.

2000 Guineas 2014 - Saburo - Ante-post

Sab-uro Star - Jim Bolger could win back to back Guineas

I’ve gone a little Jim Bolger crazy with my long range bets in recent weeks and it may just be me getting swept up in my Dawn Approach success but I’m going to continue that trend here with a purely speculative bet for next year’s first classic.

Bolger enjoyed a fantastic opening day to the Irish flat season again this year racking up a four-timer and of those winners his two-year-old Saburo was arguably the most impressive.

Winning the same race won by stable mate and this year’s brilliant 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach, the Sheikh Mohammed owned colt looked a nice prospect, and his genius-like trainer has already mapped a similar course for his two-year-old campaign as his illustrious stable mate had last year.

Currently available at 25/1 for next year’s Guineas (probably to attract suckers like me suffering with Bolger fever at the minute) which in fairness looks on the short side given what he’s actually done thus far, Saburo will only shorten up as the year wears on if he manages to keep on winning.

The chances of him developing in to a superstar like Dawn Approach are slim but not entirely beyond the realms of possibility and as such he is worthy of a small stakes bet to give Jim Bolger back to back 2000 Guineas wins.

Recommendation:

0.5pt win Saburo @ 25/1 (Bet Victor)

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2013 - Dawn Approach - Ante-post

Quick as a Flash - The copper flash can land the Arc as well as the Derby

I’m beginning to sound like a broken record here but on the back of his explosive 2000 Guineas win at the weekend and the confirmation today that he will indeed head to the Epsom Derby over 1m4f the time seems right to back Dawn Approach at what looks a big price in another market.

We’re already sitting pretty with a 12/1 slip for him in the Derby (now best priced 7/4) and if he goes on to Epsom in just under four weeks and wins then his price for what will surely then be his end of season target – the Arc – will contract massively.

A Coventry winner we know he’ll handle the large Arc field and he’s now proven he’ll go on any sort of ground, so whatever the unpredictable early October weather throws up I’d be confident he’ll handle it.

His trainer Jim Bolger is nothing short of a genius and if he elects to send this horse to Longchamp then you’d have to think that it was for good reason.

Kentucky Derby 2013 Preview

Optical Illusion - Orb can flash past his rivals in Saturday's Kentucky Derby

The 139th running of “the greatest two minutes in sport” has lost a bit of its interest for me this year as the two horses I picked out a while back for the race now won’t run due to injury.

So with both Shanghai Bobby and Violence “off the Derby trail” as they like to say in the US, it’s been back to the drawing board in recent weeks for me.

I would love to see Aidan O’Brien’s Lines Of Battle win but he looks to face a stiff task if he is to do so, but he won well in the UAE Derby at Meydan on World Cup night, although the form of that race is yet to really be tested, and with Ryan Moore missing Saturday’s racing at Newmarket to take the ride you’d have to give him a chance, if only an outside one.

My idea of the winner though is a horse called Orb; a horse that has coincidentally beaten my original two picks in two of his prep races. He narrowly accounted for Violence in the Fountain of Youth and then won the Florida Derby impressively with champion 2yo Shanghai Bobby well beaten down the field.

1000 Guineas - Big Race Preview

Remember The Name - French raider What A Name can take the 1000 Guineas

The fillies’ equivalent of the Guineas is not as straight forward to get to the bottom of as I personally think the colts’ race is, but that being said I still have a pretty confident selection for this Sunday’s race.

The last couple of 1000 Guineas have thrown up some big priced winners in Blue Bunting and Homecoming Queen, perhaps surprisingly given their connections, and although you’d be a fool to say a surprise won’t happen this year’s race does look at the mercy of the horses towards the head of the betting.

The French have taken two of the last five runnings of the 1000 Guineas with Natagora winning in 2008 and Special Duty being awarded the race in 2010 and I think they can make it a 50% strike rate in the last six years in 2013 with the Mikel Delzangles-trained What A Name.

2000 Guineas - Big Race Preview

Dawn Raid - Jim Bolger's Champion two-year-old can win the 2000 Guineas

The first English Classic of the season takes place on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile this Saturday, and as has been the case for the last three renewals of the one mile contest there is a very short priced favourite heading in to the race.

St. Nicholas Abbey failed to record victory at flat racing’s HQ in 2010 at a prohibitive price but Frankel (2011) and Camelot (2012) both landed the spoils at compressed odds.

2013 sees long time ante-post favourite for the 2000 Guineas Dawn Approach head there with a serious rival in the market in the form of Craven winner Toronado for the Richard Hannon team.

Dawn Approach was light years ahead of the two-year-old opposition he faced in 2012 and improved with each of his runs throughout the year; he remains unbeaten and has twice scored at Group 1 level.

I’ve long thought he would be very hard to beat in the Guineas and even with Toronado bursting on to the scene at a late stage that sentiment has not changed.

The Derby 2013 - Ante-post - Dawn Approach

Approach Play - Dawn Approach can step up and win the 2013 Derby like his sire

Jim Bolger showed off his stable star Dawn Approach at a press day yesterday and was reportedly extremely bullish about the three-year-old chestnut’s classic chances this season.

Red hot favourite for the 2000 Guineas there is no value in the colt’s price for the first classic of the season now, especially now he looks to have a very talented opponent to contend with in the Richard Hannon-trained Toronado.

However his price for the Derby – currently best priced 12/1 – looks particularly tempting as on breeding you would think he would get 1m4f; his sire New Approach of course having taken the Epsom spectacular in 2008.

I’ve always believed the step-up in trip could bring about further improvement in Dawn Approach and if that did transpire to be the case he could become one of the all time greats.

Bolger had originally not seemed entirely convinced that beyond a mile would be the way to go with his latest star but he now appears ready to find out.

Breeding as we all know doesn’t always pan out as you expect, so there’s no guarantee Dawn Approach will stay, but that is the peril of ante-post betting. If he wins the Guineas a week on Saturday, as he is widely expected to then you can almost bank on his price for the Derby contracting considerably.

For that reason the time seems right to back him for the Derby.

He’s not looked at the end of his tether in any of his runs to date over shorter trips, as his trainer points out he “switches off” so well and again that breeding does suggest greater trips would be within his wheelhouse. He is also a straight forward enough type that you would think he wouldn’t be too greatly put off by the pageantry of Derby day or the camber of Epsom.

There’s always a degree of banter in Racing in the build-up to big races but when Jim Bolger, a master of his craft, throws words around like “awesome” and describes a horse as the best he’s trained you have to sit up and take notice.

Dawn Approach has kept on winning and now having come out the other side of an atrocious winter in what for all intents and purposes appears to be pretty rude health the racing world, and classic glory, looks at his feet.

Recommendation:

2013 Derby – Dawn Approach 1pt win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Weekend Preview - Newbury

Olympic Legacy - Olympic Glory can cement his reputation in the Greenham

The flat season has really got under way in earnest now and although many eyes will undoubtedly be on Ayr this weekend for the Scottish National, my main interest this weekend is at Newbury for the Greenham meeting.

In the 1.50, formerly the John Porter Stakes, the horse that shall forever be known as Frankel’s brother Noble Mission returns and should take all the beating given the way the Cecil yard have started the season and how consistent he’s been in races at the top level.

Noble Mission won on this card last year and the 1m4f looks to be his optimum trip. Last year’s St. Leger seventh Guarantee could give him most to think about but this looks a good opportunity for Frankel’s full brother to make his first start in 2013 a winning one.

In the 2.55, formerly the Fred Darling, William Haggas’ unbeaten Rosdhu Queen looks the one to be with. She’s got an extra furlong and ground softer than she’s raced on thus far to contend with but she should be good enough to see off the opposition and head to the Guineas still without a loss to her name.

Black Caviar Retired

Hot In Herre - Australia's beloved 'Nelly' has been retired

Unbeaten Aussie super-mare Black Caviar has been retired.

Trainer Peter Moody made the announcement early this morning (UK time) and his star seven-year-old calls it a day with an unblemished perfect record of 25 wins from 25 starts with 15 of those coming at G1 level.

Black Caviar’s last appearance on a race course and her last win came this past Saturday in the TJ Smith Stakes where she was as dominant as ever against a top class field.

Moody is reported as having said that after a long chat with the horse’s owners that they “…decided 25 was a great number to go out on.”

Black Caviar is probably best known to the majority of UK race-goers for her heart-stopping victory at Royal Ascot last summer when she held on by the narrowest of margins as regular jockey Luke Nolen eased up on her close home and nearly got pipped by French star Moonlight Cloud.

Gold Cup & Grand National 2014 – Ante-Post

With the jumps season now almost over for another year, attention will soon turn almost exclusively to the flat, but before that happens we’re polishing off the crystal ball and looking ahead to two of the biggest races of the season next year and with them two ante-post bets that I think look good value at this extremely early stage all things considered.

Gold Cup 2014 – Boston Bob 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

At the time of his RSA fall when leading I thought he looked vulnerable anyway, especially with Lord Windermere finishing with his ears pricked but, having watched the race back I’m now not convinced and think Willie Mullins’ charge looked to have too many gears for those in behind and would have outstayed the remainder up the hill and claimed Cheltenham glory if Paul Townend hadn’t asked him for a big one at the last.

If that had transpired to be the case I dare say he’d be shorter than the 25/1 available in some places at the moment. His price could also shorten up should he run well in the G1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown next week for which he currently holds an entry.

Boston Bob has always appealed to me as a Gold Cup type and although his novice chase campaign was solid if unspectacular and he just failed in the Albert Bartlett just over twelve months ago that sentiment hasn’t changed much.

Bobs Worth amongst others will of course be very hard to beat in twelve months time but I wouldn’t mind betting that there’s more to come from Boston Bob, and granted a little more luck than he’s enjoyed to date on his two trips to Cheltenham thus far he could be a contender in next year’s Gold Cup, and is worth a small bet at this stage at what to me looks a good price.

Grand National 2014 – Saint Are 0.5pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365)

There was a lot to take out of this year’s Grand National and the race will no doubt be analysed for months to come, but in the immediate aftermath of the race once my disappointment that Cappa Bleu came up short yet again subsided Tim Vaughan’s Saint Are was the horse that I had on my mind.

The yard had Beshabar as their big hope this year, and with him cruelly ruled out through injury just before the race Vaughan’s other runner was probably overlooked somewhat as a result.

Yes he was ninth and never threatened the leading group, but he was always held up and stayed on well over the last few fences having jumped round well enough.

I wouldn’t mind betting that this was more of an exploratory run as at only seven at present he’s arguably potentially got another three or four Nationals in him yet at least.

Aintree’s a course that Saint Are has a great record at and he seems to thrive at the National meeting; he will now surely be the yard’s big hope for the race next year and at a more appropriate age for the race next year must surely go well again.

Horses that completed the race the previous season always seem to do well again the following year and having finished in a way that will surely not seem overly punished by the handicapper I think he could be a blinding each-way bet for next year’s race at the 50/1 available at present.

Grand National Preview 2013

It’s almost that time of year again, as the eyes not just of a sport but of a nation fix on Aintree and the people’s race the Grand National.

Forty runners will line-up for the most unique and demanding challenge in horse racing and the world’s most famous steeplechase is arguably the hardest race of the year to find the winner of from a punting perspective.

Hopefully my runner by runner guide will be able to steer you in the right direction though and help you pick out a horse, or several, that will be staying on at the elbow rather than crashing out at the first.

Dubai World Cup - Big Race Preview

Dull To Bring The Pain - US raider Dullahan is fancied for the Dubai World Cup

The Dubai World Cup is a bit of an odd race, it’ the world’s richest horse race yet sometimes there is a distinct lack of strength in depth to the field.

Last year the first two home were horses originally not deemed good enough for the royal blue of Godolphin and both Capponi and Monterosso had spent much of their early careers with Mark Johnston.

Both those two are back again twelve months on, and like last year are pretty much unconsidered for the 2013 running, which could again prove costly to punters.

As always for what is essentially their own race Godolphin have a very strong hand, with the aforementioned two, favourite Hunters Light and African Story they are responsible for almost a third of the field.

America had a great record in this race in the old Nad Al Sheba days when the race was run on the dirt surfaces the American horses are so used to, but they have struggled since the switch to Meydan and the tapeta surface in 2010.

This year they have arguably their strongest hand in a long time though with former Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, dual Breeders’ Cup heroine Royal Delta and the very talented Dullahan forming a three-pronged attack.

Grand National 2013 - Big Race Preview

Cappa-tion Competition - It's deja vu with Cappa Bleu is my Grand National horse

With a little over a week to go and leading protagonists dropping like flies I’ve decided to offer up my take on the Grand National early this year.

The now traditional runner-by-runner guide will be up online once the final field is confirmed but for now with prices changing on a near hourly basis I wanted to crystallise my thoughts and provide an idea of which horses I think will go well in this year’s race.

It’s a really strong looking renewal of the world’s most famous horse race and as always several look to hold live chances. Obviously luck is a massive factor in running but strictly on form and the attributes needed to go well there are many that in my opinion can be overlooked.

Lincoln 2013 - Big Race Preview

Horse Mythology - Nine Realms can land another Lincoln for William Haggas.

Along with the Grand National forming one half of the spring double, the Lincoln traditionally signifies the start of the flat season and the Doncaster feature, like it’s Aintree counterpart, is a notoriously difficult puzzle to solve.

At least with the Grand National you have some sort of form line from the season but given that the Lincoln is the first big race of the flat season it is tricky to know just what sort of form many of the leading protagonists are in with most of the form coming from either the all-weather or last year.

Last year’s winner Brae Hill is back for more but the old adage with this race is to look for the Group performer in a handicap, and I think I may have found just that sort of horse in William Haggas’s Nine Realms.

He’s been well supported at the head of the market for this since the early prices went up and looks to have the right sort of profile for the race.

Ten To Follow - Flat 2013

New Dawn - The unbeaten Dawn Approach is one to follow in 2013

We may be in the midst of Cheltenham and Aintree fever at the minute but it’s now only a few short weeks until the flat season really gets going too.

Last year I put up five horses from the classic generation to follow and I managed to unoriginally offer a 2000 Guineas and Derby winner and a Belmont winner across the pond.

Due to the popularity of my Ten To Follow preview for the jumps season though I decided to go down that route for the 2013 flat turf season too.

Again there’s no points for originality here but these are ten horses that look set to have a great 2013 on the flat, so, in no particular order, my Ten To Follow for the 2013 flat season are as follows:-

1. Dawn Approach – Where else can you start than with the unbeaten European Champion Two Year Old? From the first crop of New Approach colts Dawn Approach was seen out quite early last season, winning on the first day of the Irish turf season at The Curragh.

Festival Focus - The Handicaps

Reporting For Duty - Super Duty looks a major player in the Kim Muir

I falsely claimed at the end of my Gold Cup preview that it would be my last Festival Focus of 2013, however with the release of the handicap weights for the festival this week I’ve been lured in to some ante-post bets on several of the handicap contests throughout the week in spite of vowing not to get involved in them early this year.

My complete run down of the Graded events at the festival can be viewed here but here I plan on having a brief look at my leading fancies in several of the week’s big handicap races.

First up is the JLT Speciality Handicap Chase and having suggested Our Mick as the one to be on in this race at 14/1 in my Gold Cup preview he is now a best priced 8/1 so we’re sitting a little pretty there.