1000 Guineas - Big Race Preview

Remember The Name - French raider What A Name can take the 1000 Guineas

The fillies’ equivalent of the Guineas is not as straight forward to get to the bottom of as I personally think the colts’ race is, but that being said I still have a pretty confident selection for this Sunday’s race.

The last couple of 1000 Guineas have thrown up some big priced winners in Blue Bunting and Homecoming Queen, perhaps surprisingly given their connections, and although you’d be a fool to say a surprise won’t happen this year’s race does look at the mercy of the horses towards the head of the betting.

The French have taken two of the last five runnings of the 1000 Guineas with Natagora winning in 2008 and Special Duty being awarded the race in 2010 and I think they can make it a 50% strike rate in the last six years in 2013 with the Mikel Delzangles-trained What A Name.

2000 Guineas - Big Race Preview

Dawn Raid - Jim Bolger's Champion two-year-old can win the 2000 Guineas

The first English Classic of the season takes place on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile this Saturday, and as has been the case for the last three renewals of the one mile contest there is a very short priced favourite heading in to the race.

St. Nicholas Abbey failed to record victory at flat racing’s HQ in 2010 at a prohibitive price but Frankel (2011) and Camelot (2012) both landed the spoils at compressed odds.

2013 sees long time ante-post favourite for the 2000 Guineas Dawn Approach head there with a serious rival in the market in the form of Craven winner Toronado for the Richard Hannon team.

Dawn Approach was light years ahead of the two-year-old opposition he faced in 2012 and improved with each of his runs throughout the year; he remains unbeaten and has twice scored at Group 1 level.

I’ve long thought he would be very hard to beat in the Guineas and even with Toronado bursting on to the scene at a late stage that sentiment has not changed.

The Derby 2013 - Ante-post - Dawn Approach

Approach Play - Dawn Approach can step up and win the 2013 Derby like his sire

Jim Bolger showed off his stable star Dawn Approach at a press day yesterday and was reportedly extremely bullish about the three-year-old chestnut’s classic chances this season.

Red hot favourite for the 2000 Guineas there is no value in the colt’s price for the first classic of the season now, especially now he looks to have a very talented opponent to contend with in the Richard Hannon-trained Toronado.

However his price for the Derby – currently best priced 12/1 – looks particularly tempting as on breeding you would think he would get 1m4f; his sire New Approach of course having taken the Epsom spectacular in 2008.

I’ve always believed the step-up in trip could bring about further improvement in Dawn Approach and if that did transpire to be the case he could become one of the all time greats.

Bolger had originally not seemed entirely convinced that beyond a mile would be the way to go with his latest star but he now appears ready to find out.

Breeding as we all know doesn’t always pan out as you expect, so there’s no guarantee Dawn Approach will stay, but that is the peril of ante-post betting. If he wins the Guineas a week on Saturday, as he is widely expected to then you can almost bank on his price for the Derby contracting considerably.

For that reason the time seems right to back him for the Derby.

He’s not looked at the end of his tether in any of his runs to date over shorter trips, as his trainer points out he “switches off” so well and again that breeding does suggest greater trips would be within his wheelhouse. He is also a straight forward enough type that you would think he wouldn’t be too greatly put off by the pageantry of Derby day or the camber of Epsom.

There’s always a degree of banter in Racing in the build-up to big races but when Jim Bolger, a master of his craft, throws words around like “awesome” and describes a horse as the best he’s trained you have to sit up and take notice.

Dawn Approach has kept on winning and now having come out the other side of an atrocious winter in what for all intents and purposes appears to be pretty rude health the racing world, and classic glory, looks at his feet.

Recommendation:

2013 Derby – Dawn Approach 1pt win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Weekend Preview - Newbury

Olympic Legacy - Olympic Glory can cement his reputation in the Greenham

The flat season has really got under way in earnest now and although many eyes will undoubtedly be on Ayr this weekend for the Scottish National, my main interest this weekend is at Newbury for the Greenham meeting.

In the 1.50, formerly the John Porter Stakes, the horse that shall forever be known as Frankel’s brother Noble Mission returns and should take all the beating given the way the Cecil yard have started the season and how consistent he’s been in races at the top level.

Noble Mission won on this card last year and the 1m4f looks to be his optimum trip. Last year’s St. Leger seventh Guarantee could give him most to think about but this looks a good opportunity for Frankel’s full brother to make his first start in 2013 a winning one.

In the 2.55, formerly the Fred Darling, William Haggas’ unbeaten Rosdhu Queen looks the one to be with. She’s got an extra furlong and ground softer than she’s raced on thus far to contend with but she should be good enough to see off the opposition and head to the Guineas still without a loss to her name.

Black Caviar Retired

Hot In Herre - Australia's beloved 'Nelly' has been retired

Unbeaten Aussie super-mare Black Caviar has been retired.

Trainer Peter Moody made the announcement early this morning (UK time) and his star seven-year-old calls it a day with an unblemished perfect record of 25 wins from 25 starts with 15 of those coming at G1 level.

Black Caviar’s last appearance on a race course and her last win came this past Saturday in the TJ Smith Stakes where she was as dominant as ever against a top class field.

Moody is reported as having said that after a long chat with the horse’s owners that they “…decided 25 was a great number to go out on.”

Black Caviar is probably best known to the majority of UK race-goers for her heart-stopping victory at Royal Ascot last summer when she held on by the narrowest of margins as regular jockey Luke Nolen eased up on her close home and nearly got pipped by French star Moonlight Cloud.

Gold Cup & Grand National 2014 – Ante-Post

With the jumps season now almost over for another year, attention will soon turn almost exclusively to the flat, but before that happens we’re polishing off the crystal ball and looking ahead to two of the biggest races of the season next year and with them two ante-post bets that I think look good value at this extremely early stage all things considered.

Gold Cup 2014 – Boston Bob 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

At the time of his RSA fall when leading I thought he looked vulnerable anyway, especially with Lord Windermere finishing with his ears pricked but, having watched the race back I’m now not convinced and think Willie Mullins’ charge looked to have too many gears for those in behind and would have outstayed the remainder up the hill and claimed Cheltenham glory if Paul Townend hadn’t asked him for a big one at the last.

If that had transpired to be the case I dare say he’d be shorter than the 25/1 available in some places at the moment. His price could also shorten up should he run well in the G1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown next week for which he currently holds an entry.

Boston Bob has always appealed to me as a Gold Cup type and although his novice chase campaign was solid if unspectacular and he just failed in the Albert Bartlett just over twelve months ago that sentiment hasn’t changed much.

Bobs Worth amongst others will of course be very hard to beat in twelve months time but I wouldn’t mind betting that there’s more to come from Boston Bob, and granted a little more luck than he’s enjoyed to date on his two trips to Cheltenham thus far he could be a contender in next year’s Gold Cup, and is worth a small bet at this stage at what to me looks a good price.

Grand National 2014 – Saint Are 0.5pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365)

There was a lot to take out of this year’s Grand National and the race will no doubt be analysed for months to come, but in the immediate aftermath of the race once my disappointment that Cappa Bleu came up short yet again subsided Tim Vaughan’s Saint Are was the horse that I had on my mind.

The yard had Beshabar as their big hope this year, and with him cruelly ruled out through injury just before the race Vaughan’s other runner was probably overlooked somewhat as a result.

Yes he was ninth and never threatened the leading group, but he was always held up and stayed on well over the last few fences having jumped round well enough.

I wouldn’t mind betting that this was more of an exploratory run as at only seven at present he’s arguably potentially got another three or four Nationals in him yet at least.

Aintree’s a course that Saint Are has a great record at and he seems to thrive at the National meeting; he will now surely be the yard’s big hope for the race next year and at a more appropriate age for the race next year must surely go well again.

Horses that completed the race the previous season always seem to do well again the following year and having finished in a way that will surely not seem overly punished by the handicapper I think he could be a blinding each-way bet for next year’s race at the 50/1 available at present.

Grand National Preview 2013

It’s almost that time of year again, as the eyes not just of a sport but of a nation fix on Aintree and the people’s race the Grand National.

Forty runners will line-up for the most unique and demanding challenge in horse racing and the world’s most famous steeplechase is arguably the hardest race of the year to find the winner of from a punting perspective.

Hopefully my runner by runner guide will be able to steer you in the right direction though and help you pick out a horse, or several, that will be staying on at the elbow rather than crashing out at the first.