The Derby 2013 Preview

Battle of the Bolge - Can Jim Bolger & Dawn Approach repel the Coolmore ranks in the Derby?

It’s the most prestigious classic of the season on Saturday as Epsom plays host to The Derby.

With fifteen horses still in the reckoning to tackle the downs’ demanding camber and undulations as of this morning, the time seemed right to run the rule over the contenders, not all of whom are guaranteed to run as things stand.

So here in ascending order based on current price (starting with the favourite) is my runner-by-runner guide to this year’s Epsom Derby:

Dawn Approach – Unbeaten 2000 Guineas winner and heavy favourite. Has won seven from seven including three Group 1s and Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Unraced beyond 1m but sire won the Derby and looks like he should stay and handle unique demands of Epsom. Champion European two-year-old in 2012 and seems to improve with every run, dominant in 2000 Guineas and trained by a genius – the one to beat.

Temple Stakes 2013 Preview

Reck-ing Crew - Unbeaten Reckless Abandon returns in Saturday's Temple Stakes

The big Saturday races keep on coming now for the foreseeable future and with Group racing on both sides of the Irish Sea this Saturday we look set for another fantastic weekend of equine action.

It is domestically that we stay for this preview though, and the 5f contest that is the Temple Stakes at Haydock, part of the British Champions Series.

Won impressively last year by Bated Breath and one for the real speed merchants out there this year’s renewal has a couple of interesting angles to it but doesn’t exactly look a vintage running.

That said I’m particularly excited for this year’s Temple Stakes as it looks set to be the three-year-old debut of one of my favourite juveniles from last season Reckless Abandon.

Lockinge Stakes 2013 Preview

What Is It Good For? - Declaration Of War is taken to land the Lockinge

Last year’s Lockinge was won by the brilliant Frankel as the first port of call in a season for the ages. The chance of us seeing a horse put up a performance of that sort of standard twelve months on is slim to none, but the 2013 renewal of the JLT Lockinge Stakes still looks an intriguing race.

Given that Frankel has already been mentioned only a paragraph in, it seems right that we would start with a horse that twice chased home Sir Henry Cecil’s wonder-colt last season.

Godolphin’s Farhh enjoyed a great season in 2012 in spite of only landing the Thirsk Hunt Cup. He was a runaway winner of that race but then developed a serious case of seconditis as the season wore on.

He was unlucky at Royal Ascot getting no run in the Prince of Wales’s eventually finishing third behind So You Think and Carlton House and then it was seconds all the way.

He narrowly went down to Nathaniel in the Eclipse, then dropped back to a mile to chase Frankel home in the Sussex, it was back up to 1m2f to again play for places behind Frankel in the Juddmonte before he was again narrowly beaten in France by Moonlight Cloud over a mile.

Every single one of the aforementioned efforts since the Hunt Cup were at Group 1 level and you’d be hard pressed to find a more consistent horse in training. Many people think he can finally land the big one on Saturday and he is one of the more versatile horses out there, but I have my reservations.

Top Ten Performances of the Jumps Season 2012 - 2013

Sol Power - Solwhit and Paul Carberry winning the Liverpool Hurdle in April.

Now may seem like somewhat of a strange time to be discussing the jumps season just gone given that we have now already had our first classics of the season but in order to properly cap off my coverage of the 2012-2013 national hunt season I need to put my top ten performances of the season out there.

We definitely enjoyed a vintage jumps season in 2012-2013 and many of the horses and jockeys that made it such an incredible six months feature in this countdown.

The majority of the entries are big race wins at the highest level but there are also a couple of performances from handicaps that could scarcely be believed as well as some visually stunning performances that may not have carried as much weight as some others form-wise.

Jockeyship also plays a factor in the ranking of some of these as we also saw some rides for the ages this season just gone in addition to all the equine talent that lit up the winter.

At the end of the day horse racing has always been, and always will be, a game of opinions and this list merely offers my opinion on just what the top ten performances of the 2012-2013 jumps season were.

2000 Guineas 2014 - Saburo - Ante-post

Sab-uro Star - Jim Bolger could win back to back Guineas

I’ve gone a little Jim Bolger crazy with my long range bets in recent weeks and it may just be me getting swept up in my Dawn Approach success but I’m going to continue that trend here with a purely speculative bet for next year’s first classic.

Bolger enjoyed a fantastic opening day to the Irish flat season again this year racking up a four-timer and of those winners his two-year-old Saburo was arguably the most impressive.

Winning the same race won by stable mate and this year’s brilliant 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach, the Sheikh Mohammed owned colt looked a nice prospect, and his genius-like trainer has already mapped a similar course for his two-year-old campaign as his illustrious stable mate had last year.

Currently available at 25/1 for next year’s Guineas (probably to attract suckers like me suffering with Bolger fever at the minute) which in fairness looks on the short side given what he’s actually done thus far, Saburo will only shorten up as the year wears on if he manages to keep on winning.

The chances of him developing in to a superstar like Dawn Approach are slim but not entirely beyond the realms of possibility and as such he is worthy of a small stakes bet to give Jim Bolger back to back 2000 Guineas wins.

Recommendation:

0.5pt win Saburo @ 25/1 (Bet Victor)

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2013 - Dawn Approach - Ante-post

Quick as a Flash - The copper flash can land the Arc as well as the Derby

I’m beginning to sound like a broken record here but on the back of his explosive 2000 Guineas win at the weekend and the confirmation today that he will indeed head to the Epsom Derby over 1m4f the time seems right to back Dawn Approach at what looks a big price in another market.

We’re already sitting pretty with a 12/1 slip for him in the Derby (now best priced 7/4) and if he goes on to Epsom in just under four weeks and wins then his price for what will surely then be his end of season target – the Arc – will contract massively.

A Coventry winner we know he’ll handle the large Arc field and he’s now proven he’ll go on any sort of ground, so whatever the unpredictable early October weather throws up I’d be confident he’ll handle it.

His trainer Jim Bolger is nothing short of a genius and if he elects to send this horse to Longchamp then you’d have to think that it was for good reason.

Kentucky Derby 2013 Preview

Optical Illusion - Orb can flash past his rivals in Saturday's Kentucky Derby

The 139th running of “the greatest two minutes in sport” has lost a bit of its interest for me this year as the two horses I picked out a while back for the race now won’t run due to injury.

So with both Shanghai Bobby and Violence “off the Derby trail” as they like to say in the US, it’s been back to the drawing board in recent weeks for me.

I would love to see Aidan O’Brien’s Lines Of Battle win but he looks to face a stiff task if he is to do so, but he won well in the UAE Derby at Meydan on World Cup night, although the form of that race is yet to really be tested, and with Ryan Moore missing Saturday’s racing at Newmarket to take the ride you’d have to give him a chance, if only an outside one.

My idea of the winner though is a horse called Orb; a horse that has coincidentally beaten my original two picks in two of his prep races. He narrowly accounted for Violence in the Fountain of Youth and then won the Florida Derby impressively with champion 2yo Shanghai Bobby well beaten down the field.