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| Mos Be Love - Gerald Mosse reunites with Reckless Abandon on Saturday |
Over in Ireland there is the Irish Champion Stakes whilst on our own shores Haydock host the Sprint Cup.
On paper the race looks a lay-up for the season’s sprinting star Lethal Force to notch his third Group 1 of the year having already taken the Diamond Jubilee and the July Cup this term.
He did meet defeat last time out in a hotly run race in France but his second to the world class Moonlight Cloud – who has subsequently won arguably the race of the season when smashing the likes of Dawn Approach and Declaration of War in the Jacques Le Marois – is hardly anything to be ashamed of.
Recently bought for a small fortune by Cheveley Park Stud for breeding purposes Lethal Force can enhance his stud value further here by winning yet another Group 1 sprint.
With old rival Society Rock sadly out of the race through injury it could be a horse from his own yard that gives Lethal Force most to think about here though.
Trainer Clive Cox has thus far this season kept his two star sprinters apart, but this time Reckless Abandon lines up against his stable mate and you may get a sense of deja vu here with me tipping Reckless Abandon in a big Haydock sprint, as I fancied him on his seasonal reappearance in the Temple Stakes when he went down a gallant third to Kingsgate Native and a horse that runs in the same colours as Lethal Force Swiss Spirit, both of whom will again take their chances here.
Reckless Abandon was unbeaten at two, and came in to his three-year-old campaign with a lofty reputation and he has run with credit on both starts thus far in 2013.
He has looked a real speed ball this season with both runs coming at 5f, however he was twice a winner at 6f last season and if anything not going quite as fast early would surely aid him as he looked to have a great chance in the King’s Stand but for me looked to have just gone off too quickly before hanging again.
The sectional times from that race back that up with him faltering in the last 2f having been asked to set lightening quick fractions early on, if he can settle – which he has had issues with in the past – we could see a more complete performance here.
No disrespect to Adam Kirby but I think the reuniting of Reckless Abandon with the evergreen Gerald Mosse, riding better than ever of late could be crucial to him bettering his two efforts to date this season.
Mosse piloted Reckless Abandon to victory three times last year, all at Group level, and if anyone can finesse a horse in need of a little finessing to victory then it has to be Mosse.
The break since the Royal meeting will surely have done the horse some good, and if he’s developed further over these last few months he could really put the slight weight for age allowance he’ll get on Saturday to good use.
In closing, the stars seem aligned for a big run from Reckless Abandon on Saturday and though his stable mate will be hard to beat, I’ll be very surprised if Clive Cox isn’t able to get both horses in the frame, possibly even the 1-2.
Of the remainder, Gordon Lord Byron is a proven top class performer at this level but was firmly put in his place by Ballydoyle monster Darwin the time before last before really making a meal of that one’s absence last time out when only just landing a Leopardstown Group 3 at prohibitive odds.
Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking and he was second in this last year so it’d be no surprise to see him run well but on his last two runs he isn’t for me.
Beyond that it does look quite a weak renewal, hence the confidence on the selection placing at the very least.
It would be great to see old favourites such as Hoof It and Hawekeyethenoo run well but on this season’s form it is stretching the imagination somewhat to see that happening.
The old boy Kingsgate Native hasn’t really gone on from his victory here earlier in the season, Slade Power is too hit and miss for my liking, though clearly talented and Stewards’ Cup winner Rex Imperator will no doubt appreciate the return to a sounder surface but will need to improve again drastically to get competitive with the likes of Lethal Force.
While the remaining three-year-olds both have question marks over them, Cristoforo Colombo hasn’t been seen since finishing fifth in the Guineas which is form that would put him with a shout, but he’s not won since his debut and hasn’t exactly looked a sprinter to date while Garswood’s win in the Lennox Stakes is another strong piece of form but there is a very real suspicion this will unfold much too quickly for him.
Clive Cox therefore looks to hold all the aces ahead of Saturday’s Sprint Cup and though his star performer Lethal Force will be hard to beat in his quest for a third Group 1 of the summer, it is his stable mate Reckless Abandon that rates the better value in my opinion as he bids to get back to the winning ways he enjoyed exclusively through his juvenile campaign.
Sprint Cup 2013 – Best Odds:
Lethal Force 9/4
Reckless Abandon 6/1
Gordon Lord Byron 8/1
Slade Power 8/1
Swiss Spirit 12/1
Cristoforo Colombo 14/1
Garswood 14/1
Kingsgate Native 16/1
Heeraat 20/1
Rex Imperator 20/1
Hamza 25/1
Viztoria 25/1
Kavanagh 28/1
Hoof It 33/1
Hawkeyethenoo 40/1
Soul 40/1
Tiddliwinks 66/1
Intense Pink 100/1
Recommendation:
Reckless Abandon 0.5pt each-way @ 6/1 (Bet365, Betfred, Sky Bet)
I'm American, what's the best way to handicap non American races? Your forms provide so little information and turf racing is very tricky.
ReplyDeleteIt's much easier to handicap on dirt in the US.
Perhaps you can shed some light on that. I'm told the British spend more time reviewing video replays, while we rely on Pace figures at the call markers.
We currently only have sectional timing on the big Group races so it is difficult and somewhat disappointing in this day and age.
ReplyDeleteHopefully that will change soon but it is one of the main reasons I enjoy my US racing so much. It is obviously still possible to form your own opinions on these things using pace maps and the naked eye along with the overall race time but there is no substitute for the cold hard stats.
I tend to use the stats available to try and work out races, trends etc.