King George VI Chase 2014 Ante Post Preview

Fill Your Boots - Ma Filleule is the value call in the King George

One of the tropes of the festive season is that after weeks of build-up and anticipation the big moment comes and goes in a matter of minutes, and much like that dawn start on Christmas morning for an excitable child the King George will be over in a flash on a Boxing Day but it will hopefully leave us with that warm wintery glow if we can find the winner.

The world of ante-post betting is rapidly becoming a thing of the past sadly, with most firms pushing favoured horses out to prices greater than they’ve been in the build-up to the race come race day morning.

Current market leaders, and the most likely winners, Silviniaco Conti and Champagne Fever will both almost certainly be available at a similar price or bigger come the day of the race so for the purposes of this preview will be passed over.

The Willie Mullins grey is actually the horse I think will take all the beating in this year’s renewal of the Boxing Day spectacular, but unless you managed to grab some of the fancy prices available about him before his seasonal reappearance or in the immediate aftermath of that victory he’s now surely short enough in the betting at a general 7/2.

If the ground was to come up very testing then the 11/4 on last year’s winner Silviniaco Conti could look a late Christmas gift, however given the forecast that seems unlikely at this stage and Conti now looks like an out and out stayer.

Betfair Chase Preview 2014

Taq To The Future - Taquin Du Seuil can announce arrival in the big leagues in the Betfair Chase

The first Grade 1 race of the national hunt season will be upon is this Saturday as the Betfair Chase takes place at Haydock.

Responsible for some fabulous races since its inception a little under a decade ago, this year’s renewal looks set to be one of the most informative in a while given how open the staying chase division looks this season.

Won last year by Cue Card in tremendous style, the reigning champ and the two placed horses from last year look set to lock horns again in 2014 with all three currently heading the betting.

It’s the new kid on the block that I like this year though and much like Silviniaco Conti two years ago, the time looks right for a pretender to grab a table with the big boys.

Breeders' Cup Preview

Believe in Belief - Shared Belief can win the Breeders' Cup Classic

With the loss of some big names, this year’s Breeders’ Cup has encountered similar problems to Ascot’s own Champions’ Day, however much like with that event we still look set for an incredible weekend of racing.

Time has conspired against me somewhat this week preventing me from going quite as in depth as I would like on every race – I did however get Mile and Juvenile previews up last week which you can view by clicking the respective links – so I’ll simply have to put up my fancies for the weekend and try to explain why I’ve backed them.

Starting on the Friday, and first up we have the Dirt Mile and Goldencents. Last year’s winner is my idea of the weekend’s banker and providing he can get out and get on to the lead from his draw in one then he should take some stopping once again.

His form this season might not look all that on paper but that doesn’t tell the whole story and he’s been running some mighty figures in defeat with legitimate excuses when coming up short.

Forget the controversy surrounding his trainer, it is essentially just a name change and nothing else, Goldencents can become yet another horse to back up at the Breeders’ Cup, and though not all out disastrous it will be a disappointing start to the weekend if he’s beaten.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Preview

Better The Devil You Know - Daredevil is fancied to land the Juvenile

The Juvenile is one of my favourite races at the Breeders’ Cup meeting and this year’s race looks like being a classic with two very highly rated colts squaring off.

Bob Baffert’s American Pharaoh and Todd Pletcher’s Daredevil both look destined for big things and their showdown at Santa Anita will definitely be one to savour.

It’s the Pletcher colt I’m siding with though on the back of his effortless Champagne Stakes win at the beginning of the month at Belmont. The Champagne has become a really great guide to the Juvenile with, in the previous four years alone, Uncle Mo, Union Rags, Shanghai Bobby and Havana all winning the Champagne prior to then either winning or placing in the Juvenile.

Pletcher and Baffert both have good records in the Juvenile but at the prices Daredevil makes more appeal, even though his Champagne win came on a sloppy track, which obviously barring some freak weather he won’t get in California and of course Santa Anita is American Pharaoh’s own back yard.

Breeders’ Cup Mile Preview

Seek The Value - Seek Again has drifted to an enticing price in the UK

With the mighty Wise Dan out this year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile the race and the meeting itself has lost a bit of its magic.

However the Mile now looks ripe to try and exploit some value from, and after a bizarre and frankly ludicrous drift in the last few days the horse to do that with is Bill Mott’s Seek Again.

Generally around the 6/1 mark for a number of weeks, Seek Again has been inexplicably pushed out to 12/1 and bigger in places in the last 48 hours with several UK firms. There appears to be no real reason for this as he’s been working well on the east coast as he preps for the penultimate race on the Breeders’ Cup card, so now confirmed as an intended runner, and as arguably the leading hope for the home team, now seems a good time to back him as he will be half that price come the day.

Beaten in a photo in May on the Kentucky Derby undercard by Wise Dan, who prior to being ruled out was a 6/4 shot for the race, there seems little justification for Seek Again being eight times that price.

National Hunt Ten To Follow 2014-2015

The Don - Festival winner Don Poli looks set for another big season.

As the 2014 flat turf season enters its twilight thought naturally is turning more and more towards the start of the national hunt season proper.

The coming jumps season has more hype around it than I can ever remember for a national hunt campaign and it might not be misplaced given the plethora of exciting jumpers we have to look forward to this year.

Once again I’m going to try and pick out ten horses that could be in for a big year over obstacles without throwing in the completely obvious ones, because we all know Faugheen’s going to win the Champion Hurdle right?

We’re not in totally under the radar dark horse territory here but in my national hunt ten to follow for 2014-2015 you’ll find ten horses that could be about to enjoy a fruitful season and keep us on the edge of our seat this winter in the process.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2014 Ante-Post Preview

Certain-ty? - Can Avenir Certain remain unbeaten in this year's Arc?

It’s been a while since I posted one of my dodgy tips, but after a busy few months with getting hitched and what not I’m back for an autumn campaign with an eye on Europe’s premier flat race.

For the second year in a row I will be lucky enough to be at Longchamp for this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and as a result there’s rarely been a day I haven’t been checking the market for this year’s race.

With Arc Trials day coming up this Sunday and with the market having once again been shaken up following Sea The Moon’s pretty emphatic defeat at Baden-Baden at the weekend, now seemed a good time to highlight two horses I have already backed for the Arc but still remain worthy of a bet at their current prices given their current profile.

Rather than go through in great detail why the horses at the top of the market can’t win in my opinion, given this is an ante-post piece I’ll just give you my logic for the selections and a quick summary of the other main contenders…

Belmont Stakes Preview

California Dreamin' - California Chrome can end a 36 year wait for a Triple Crown winner

The Triple Crown dream is well and truly still alive in the US after California Chrome’s fairytale story continued with victory in the Preakness on Saturday.

With two legs of American racing’s Holy Grail under his belt, California Chrome has now arrived in New York ahead of the third and final leg – the Belmont Stakes – on 7th June.

Art Sherman’s charge has history and some pretty damning stats to overcome if he’s to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 but he is head and shoulders above the other three-year-olds in the US this season and hasn’t exactly had hard races in Kentucky or Baltimore.

In the immediate aftermath of the Preakness Ladbrokes went 2/1 that he lifts the Triple Crown which looked generous, they’ve subsequently clipped that to 6/4 but with news that Danza, Kentucky Derby third and to my eye California Chrome’s main danger in the Belmont, will miss the race that 6/4 still looks pretty tasty given many other books have him closer to even money.

The Derby 2014 - Ante-Post

Take Cover - Bunker (background, right [in grey]) could be a live Derby contender

My ante-post punting over the last twelve months is the main reason I’m not showing a healthier profit on here than I am. However in spite of the pitfalls and frustrations that come along with long range bets, there’s just something about it I can’t resist.

Sitting on a ticket at a massive price when everybody else is on at a fraction of your odds allows you to feel smug and superior, until the horse gets absolutely stuffed of course (Dawn Approach in last year’s Derby for example).

I will not be deterred after last year’s Derby debacle though and I’m back for further punishment with a speculative bet on a horse I’ve been a big fan of for some time now.

He was my idea of a banker on Arc day when I was there last October but didn’t make the cross-Channel trip and with his form having stood up, he more than likely would have won.

With not holding an initial entry in the Derby there was some consternation over whether he would actually line up, but he features among the second entries for the race recently announced and having already bagged an Arc you can bet connections will be keen to have a go if they have a live chance in the race.

Grand National 2014 Tips and Preview

Eye Of The Tiger - Rocky Creek can win the Grand National for Paul Nicholls

The time is almost upon us again when the eyes of the general public descend on our fair sport for one afternoon of the year.

For better or worse, the Grand National remains a typically British tradition and, though controversial, a wonderful occasion for the whole family to enjoy.

As always my main hope for the race is that all forty horses and jockeys come back safe and sound, but if you’re having a bet in the race – which if you’re reading this you more than likely are – I have again compiled my annual runner-by-runner guide to hopefully allow you to place a bet on the people’s race using greater information than simply name or the colour of the jockey’s silks.

Though given what a lottery (ironically the name of the first ever winner of the race) the Grand National can be, you could do worse than betting based purely on name!

Since the changes to the race over the last few years the line-up has become stronger and stronger and more than ever you now need a proven top class horse. Below you will find the forty horses set to jump thirty fences and travel just under four and a half miles round Aintree along with their credentials for the world’s greatest steeplechase.

Dubai World Cup Night Preview

Bold Showing - Giovanni Boldini can win the UAE Derby

The flat is definitely back in a big way this weekend and while the Lincoln will take centre stage on the domestic front at Doncaster on Saturday, internationally all eyes will be on Dubai for World Cup night at Meydan.

I don’t have a strong opinion this year on the world’s richest horse race, other than that I think last year’s Derby winner, and current favourite for the race Ruler Of The World looks vulnerable and that last year’s fourth Side Glance, the rank outsider of them all, could again outrun his price amidst reports of impressive work out on the course earlier today.

I do however have some stronger opinions on some of the races on the undercard.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Preview - Festival Focus

Liquid Dreams - The Liquidator has already won at Cheltenham and looks a big price for the Supreme

The Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser is always a highlight of the week, from the ‘roar’ that greets the dropping of the tape to the often surprising results the race can throw up, suffice to say the opener is never dull.

Prior to Champagne Fever last year the previous four years had all seen winners priced in double figures and even the mighty Willie Mullins managed to win it with a 40/1 shot in 2007.

In fact there hasn’t been a winning favourite in the race since Brave Inca emerged victorious in 2004. The list of horses beaten in this race reads like a who’s who of National Hunt racing over the last few seasons as well: Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card, Binocular, Oscar Whisky, Somersby, even dual Royal Ascot winner Simenon trailed in last in 2012.

That all doesn’t bode particularly well for current favourite Irving, but the way in which he won the Dovecote last weekend suggests that he is more than up to the challenge of ending the losing streak of favourites in this race.

He’s unbeaten over hurdles and represents a trainer that has won this race before having taken it with Al Ferof in 2011. Paul Nicholls has been careful with this potential superstar and though I, like many people, think he would have won the Betfair Hurdle had he run, if he can land the Supreme his trainer’s caution will be more than justified.

JLT Novices' Chase Preview - Festival Focus

Yong Gun - Felix Yonger is the selection in the JLT

This race sprung a little bit of a surprise last year as Benefficient ensured Irish dominance of the race continued with a 20/1 victory.

Now sponsored by JLT the race formerly known as the Jewson will enjoy Grade 1 status this year for the first time but though some things change I expect others to stay very much the same and for Ireland to once again emerge victorious.

Willie Mullins has already taken this race once – with Sir Des Champs in 2012 – and he looks poised to land the spoils again this year with Felix Yonger.

The son of Oscar was one of several horses under the ownership of the Wylies that joined Willie Mullins after the Howard Johnson shenanigans.

He’d been a decent Bumper performer for Johnson, albeit trailing in almost last in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in 2011.

Albert Bartlett Preview - Festival Focus

Running Up That Hill - last year's Bumper winner Briar Hill can follow up in the Albert Bartlett

With it currently 10/1 bar the top two it’s not hard to argue that there could be some serious value lurking in this year’s Albert Bartlett.

That said, it is one of the top two I fancy for the novice staying hurdle event, and a previous festival winner at that.

Willie Mullins once again has an exceptional pack of novice hurdlers and it’s taken some shuffling to get each horse in the right place. You’d be a brave person to suggest that the final plans were anywhere near concrete just yet but thankfully now Bet365 have gone Non Runner No Bet on every festival race it allows us to wager ante-post with a lot less trepidation.

Time and time again at Cheltenham you see horses that have run well at the festival before replicate that form, and in recent years the number of horses that have won a race and then come back and won again the following year has been rather startling.

The Champion Bumper in particular is a race in which victorious horses, and even placed horses, almost always come back in latter years and run well again.

Just in the last six years we’ve had Dunguib finish in the money in the Supreme twelve months on from a runaway Bumper success, Cue Card come back and run well in the Supreme before a placed effort in the Arkle and a dominant Ryanair win and most recently Champagne Fever win the Supreme one year removed from taking the Bumper.

Last year’s Bumper winner Briar Hill also hails from the Willie Mullins yard and comes in to this year’s festival with a perfect record.

Triumph Hurdle Preview - Festival Focus

Ell of a Chance - Tiger Roll can go close in the Triumph for Gordon Elliot

The Triumph was one of the first Cheltenham races I took an ante-post view in this year and after a rather lacklustre effort at Doncaster last time out it looked as though the 16/1 I took about Royal Irish Hussar hadn’t been as shrewd as I thought at the time.

Guitar Pete’s subsequent exploits though have resurrected some shred of hope that Nicky Henderson’s former Ballydoyle inmate can still factor in the final reckoning of Friday’s opening race.

It wasn’t so much the horses that beat him that day that was so off-putting, as Broughton currently sits fourth in the betting for the festival juvenile contest and was an above average flat performer for Mark Johnston while winner Fox Norton also looks a decent sort, but the visual of Royal Irish Hussar’s effort.

He looked all at sea on the run-in and there really weren’t any excuses to be made. You have to just forgive and forget that run, if like me, you’ve already backed him for the Triumph and thankfully Guitar Pete has significantly boosted both his, and in the process, Broughton’s form.

Ryanair Preview - Festival Focus

Wishing For a Star - Wishfull Thinking is one of two fragile but talented Ryanair selections

If there’s one Cheltenham race for which the current market nowhere near accurately represents the likely field then it has to be the Ryanair Chase.

As things stand the race won by the likes of Imperial Commander, Albertas Run, Riverside Theatre and Cue Card has several horses at the head of the market that are unlikely to run.

Aside from current ante-post favourite Benefficient (winner of the novice equivalent of this race last year) the first seven in the betting all look unlikely to run here with the majority – Cue Card, Al Ferof, First Lieutenant and Dynaste – all looking like heading for the Gold Cup.

Obviously if any of these top class performers did line up here they would be feared and more than likely be a rather short-priced favourite come the off.

For the purposes of this piece though we’re going to assume that none of the aforementioned horses take the soft option and come to the Ryanair in spite of its Grade 1 status, rather electing to go for glory in the Gold Cup.

Neptune Preview - Festival Focus

Elementary - Red Sherlock is fancied to land the Neptune

The Neptune has produced some great winners over the years – Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and in recent years First Lieutenant, Peddlers Cross, Simonsig and The New One.

This year’s race looks set to unearth yet another superstar as a talented list of entries remain in the novice contest but with a hot ante-post favourite from Willie Mullins, the horse that appeals to me as the most likely winner still sits at a decent price in spite of his recent contraction.

My original ante-post pick Clondaw Court is not dead in the water yet and I do hope he runs here but with the favourite Faugheen in the same ownership it looks unlikely, and if a Cheltenham run is in Clondaw Court’s future it is more than likely going to be in the Albert Bartlett.

Therefore the unbeaten Red Sherlock is now my selection for the race as things stand, his recent battling win at Cheltenham in which he and Rathvinden (not far off being one of Mullins’ best novice hurdlers) pulled well clear of a decent field cementing that sentiment.

World Hurdle Preview - Festival Focus

I've Got The Power - Annie Power can beat the boys in the World Hurdle

I had thought about delving in to the World Hurdle before the weekend when there was inevitably going to be some fluctuation in the market with four of the main contenders for festival Thursday’s showpiece locking horns.

Alas time got the better of me but my thoughts haven’t really changed in the aftermath of the Cleeve and Annie Power’s run at Doncaster – if Annie Power takes her chance in the World Hurdle she can win it.

With her going over two miles at Doncaster many were convinced that was an indication that she will run in the Champion Hurdle rather than its longer companion. However Willie Mullins already has two for that race (including the favourite) and though Annie Power is with different owners I can’t imagine they’d make Ruby Walsh get off her – which he surely will if it’s a choice between her and Hurricane Fly.

He’s also unlikely to abandon Quevega in her bid for further Cheltenham history in the Mares race which really only leaves one option and with Boston Bob running an absolute shocker in the Cleeve that leaves Mullins with no real contender for the World Hurdle too, so step forward Annie Power.

Champion Chase Preview - Festival Focus

Super Sprint - The defending champ can make it back to back wins if he arrives healthy 

Like last year the Champion Chase preview is undoubtedly going to be the briefest of my Festival Focus pieces because simply put if a healthy Sprinter Sacre turns up he wins doing handstands.

Obviously he’s not the sure thing he was last year having only raced once this year and lost his unbeaten record over fences, however there were of course mitigating circumstances.

Pulled up after only a handful of fences by Barry Geraghty the man who knows him like the back of his hand due to having not jumped with his usual exuberance, Sprinter Sacre was found after the race to be suffering from an irregular heartbeat, similar to what ailed the mighty Denman a few years back.

His future participation in any race was immediately called in to doubt but he was quite quickly announced to be healthy again and has been building up towards a tilt at retaining his Queen Mother crown ever since.

Champion Hurdle Preview - Festival Focus

Let's Make a Rendezvous - Melodic Rendezvous is the value call in the Champion Hurdle

This year’s Champion Hurdle looks a truly vintage renewal and has long looked like being the best race of the festival this year.

The problem with that though is that there is very little value left in the market for a race that has been prominent in everyone’s thoughts since last year’s festival drew to a close.

There was a strong changing of the guard vibe around the champion hurdling division at the start of this season but reigning two-time champion Hurricane Fly has shown he is not going to hand over his crown without a fight by beating his two main challengers from his base in Ireland already this season.

The Fly has never really received the recognition he deserves in my opinion and people will undoubtedly still underestimate him until he is eventually packed off in to retirement.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview - Festival Focus

Two Bob - Namesakes Boston Bob and last year's winner Bobs Worth are my two for the Gold Cup this year

It’s that time again, with just over eight weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival my Festival Focus posts are back, tackling each of the Graded races in the build-up to the greatest show on turf.

This year rather than going through the races in order I’m going to tackle them as and when I solidify my thoughts on a certain race, so with that in mind first up for 2014 is the big one – the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

My ante-post punting has been somewhat of a disaster in the last twelve months but with many firms now going Non Runner No Bet on the main races at the festival you can now bet with the reassurance that should your horse not line up you will at least get your stake back.