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| New Dawn - The unbeaten Dawn Approach is one to follow in 2013 |
Last year I put up five horses from the classic generation to follow and I managed to unoriginally offer a 2000 Guineas and Derby winner and a Belmont winner across the pond.
Due to the popularity of my Ten To Follow preview for the jumps season though I decided to go down that route for the 2013 flat turf season too.
Again there’s no points for originality here but these are ten horses that look set to have a great 2013 on the flat, so, in no particular order, my Ten To Follow for the 2013 flat season are as follows:-
1. Dawn Approach – Where else can you start than with the unbeaten European Champion Two Year Old? From the first crop of New Approach colts Dawn Approach was seen out quite early last season, winning on the first day of the Irish turf season at The Curragh.
From then on it was win after win for the son of the Derby winner, the offspring of whom enjoyed a great season in general. After three facile wins Jim Bolger’s colt crossed the Irish Sea for Royal Ascot and notched an impressive battling performance in the Coventry Stakes on the first day of the Royal meeting (which I was lucky enough to be in attendance for).
The form of that race now looks even stronger with Olympic Glory (more on him later) going on to such great things later in the year. Following his Coventry win Dawn Approach was snapped up by Godolphin, obviously with future worth at stud on their mind. In a wise move though they left him with Bolger and on his next start, now in that famous royal blue, Dawn Approach landed his first Group 1.
He rounded out 2012 with a typically unflashy but ultimately easy win in the Dewhurst, with all roads now leading back to Newmarket for the Guineas on the first weekend in May. Jim Bolger recently described Dawn Approach as being in “awesome” shape following the winter and the chestnut could be our best hope of another unbeaten colt to rally behind following the retirement of Frankel.
Dawn Approach looks set to go off favourite for the 2000 Guineas and will probably be a lot shorter than the 7/2 still available now on the day. After that I personally would love to see him upped in trip for the Derby but although he’s second favourite for that race at present it seems unlikely at this point.
Either way he looks set for 2013 to be as fantastic, if not better than 2012 and although the 2000 Guineas looks like being a vintage renewal this year I still think he’ll take all the beating.
Selected Early Prices: 2000 Guineas (7/2), Derby (12/1)
2. Mars – It’s not uncommon for horses to be catapulted to the head of the ante-post betting for the following season’s classics as two-year-olds on the back of just one performance; however it is a little rarer to see it happen on the back of a maiden win at Dundalk on a Monday afternoon.
Such was the manner in which Aidan O’Brien’s Mars recorded his first victory on his only run last season though that he was instantly hotshotted to the forefront of the betting for this year’s Derby.
What Mars actually beat in that 7f contest is debatable and with only one race day start to his name it’s hard to know exactly what to make of him, but the Galileo colt is clearly highly regarded and although he could be disputing many of his races next season with his impressive stable mate Kingsbarns (more on him in a second) Mars still looks set to be a talking horse for 2013.
Selected Early Prices: 2000 Guineas (20/1), Derby (12/1)
3. Kingsbarns – Aidan O’Brien’s other great white hope for 2013 won the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in emphatic style on his final start of 2012, the same race that stable mate Camelot took in 2011 on his way to Guineas and Derby glory last season.
Prior to his Doncaster win Kingsbarns had just the one start to his name – an easy Navan maiden victory earlier in the month. For anyone struggling to pick the winner of the Racing Post Trophy O’Brien practically did the work for you by pulling out all his other well-fancied runners and supplementing Kingsbarns for the race.
His next big star duly obliged, taking the Group 1 contest and inserting himself as favourite for this year’s Derby in the process. Whether he and stable mate Mars will be kept apart this season, as Imperial Monarch and Camelot were last year, remains to be seen but if Ballydoyle do pull the trigger on both horses going for classics on both sides of the Irish Sea we could be in for some epic encounters this summer.
Selected Early Prices: 2000 Guineas (8/1), Derby (5/1)
4. Shanghai Bobby – Last year’s American Champion Two-year-old like Dawn Approach finished 2012 unbeaten; however unlike Dawn Approach (as yet) that record went in his first start of 2013.
In spite of that defeat in which his conqueror had to break the track record to see him off Shanghai Bobby, who is now part owned by Coolmore – tantalisingly teasing, though unlikely, the prospect of him maybe gracing our shores one day – still looks set to have another great year in 2013.
He won three times in New York last season including the Gr1 Hopeful Stakes before landing another Graded race with an emphatic victory in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont under record-breaking jockey Rosie Napravnik.
At the Breeders’ Cup Shanghai Bobby was forced to dig deep to battle back to land the $1million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile narrowly gaining the decision from He’s Had Enough after idling in front on the run in. He finished 2012 unbeaten though and had showed himself to not just be class but to have heart as well.
His first start of this year was the Gr3 Holy Bull Stakes and although Todd Pletcher’s colt was beaten he lost nothing in defeat down at Gulfstream Park with both he and Itsmyluckyday having pulled some 11l clear of the remainder of the field. It was a messy race and I still retain confidence that he can bounce back and go on and be a real contender in all three US classics this summer – the further distance of the Belmont may just be beyond him but what a story that would be if he were to win in his native New York.
Selected Early Prices: Kentucky Derby (16/1)
5. Certify – Godolphin’s Certify is the leading filly going in to the 2013 classics having finished 2012 unbeaten with four wins to her name after making steady progression from a maiden to a Group 3 to a Group 2 and finally landing a Group 1 when she easily took the Shadwell at Newmarket back in September.
Godolphin will be keen to have a landmark season in 2013 to change the focus from the Frankie Dettori debacle to their horses on the track and whilst they are currently enjoying a typically fruitful Dubai Carnival they’ll be looking to get themselves back amongst the English classics having endured an uncharacteristically lean year last year.
They might have the 2000 Guineas favourite but although Dawn Approach runs in the famous royal blue many still view him as purely a Jim Bolger horse so you can bet your bottom dollar that they’ll want ‘one of their own’ to really prove themselves this year and Certify looks their best chance of that at present.
She quickened away so impressively in the Shadwell any replication of that level of performance must see her go very close in the 1000 Guineas. The further distance of the Oaks may be beyond her but at a mile thus far she’s looked top class.
Selected Early Prices: 1000 Guineas (9/1), Oaks (20/1)
6. Reckless Abandon – Clive Cox’s Reckless Abandon was another two-year-old Royal Ascot winner who enjoyed an unbeaten 2012. As a three-year-old now he looks set to be a major player in sprint contests and possibly the Guineas if taking his chance.
He had looked exceptionally green when hanging badly left at Royal Ascot but whilst still showing signs of being temperamental in his two Group race wins in France he showed an improved attitude and was impressive.
Reckless Abandon then proved himself to be one of last season’s leading two-year-olds with a second Group 1 win on future Champions’ Day when narrowly landing a competitive Middle Park at Newmarket.
With Darley having stumped up cash for an interest in him already this is clearly a horse with a future and 2013 could see him quickly add to his already impressive unbeaten run.
Selected Early Prices: 2000 Guineas (20/1)
7. Olympic Glory – Richard Hannon’s Olympic Glory’s only defeat last year came at the hands of Dawn Approach so you can almost forgive him that one second place finish on his CV to date as he was unbeaten in his four other 2012 starts.
Those four victories included two Group 2s and a Group 1 on Arc day at Longchamp in October. With the Hannon’s somewhat rarely having a potential Derby horse this year in Toronado it looks as though Olympic Glory will be kept at a mile in 2013 and with Canford Cliffs now in retirement he could be the next top class miler for a stable renowned for churning them out.
A little like Dawn Approach in his lack of flash, Olympic Glory’s wins thus far have all, with the exception of his maiden, been by quite narrow margins. He does enough though and battled on well in France when he had looked in trouble.
It’s hard to know what the winter will have brought going in to the Guineas but based on what I’ve seen he looks like the horse that could give Dawn Approach most to worry about in May and the rematch between the two will add another fascinating layer to what looks a truly top class renewal of the first classic of the season.
Selected Early Prices: 2000 Guineas (16/1)
8. Hydrogen – Without doubt set to be the hype horse of the season, Qatar Racing’s Hydrogen made headlines last year when snapped up for a huge £2.5million at the Tattersalls Sales.
By Galileo (who else?) and half brother to Derby winner Authorized, Hydrogen, after an elaborate luncheon to announce who would train the new Qatar Racing horses this season, was put under the care of Peter Chapple-Hyam who had trained Authorized to that Epsom win in 2007.
It’s pretty much all hype at the moment and we won’t know how good he is until he hits the track really but the breeding would suggest he’ll be a good one and the hype machine is certainly working over time on this one.
Whether he turns out to be a flop or a superstar one thing is for sure for Hydrogen in 2013 – his races are going to be watched with great interest.
Selected Early Prices: To win a Gr1 race in 2013 (10/1)
9. Sir Graham Wade – Hugely progressive last season winning 6 out of 10 for Mark Johnston and progressing up the weights at a rapid rate of knots.
A four-year-old now, he’ll be contesting the major Cup races this season according to the trainer. It should be really interesting to see if he can continue his rise through the ranks and become a force to be reckoned with in Group class.
Sir Graham Wade put up some impressive performances last season, not least at Doncaster when he won the Mallard Stakes in a blanket finish having looked beat 3f out. He’s a tough, strapping horse that can carry weight so could still be competitive in handicaps if they elect to go down that route with him, but his Listed win at Nantes in France at the end of last season suggests he might be a bit better than that and there’ll hopefully be more big race success to come for Sir Graham Wade and Mark Johnston in 2013.
Selected Early Prices: Ascot Gold Cup (20/1)
10. Eblouissante – Half sister to the mighty Zenyatta, four-year-old Eblouissante is two out of two now having won on both starts since her debut last year.
Trained by John Shirreffs Zenyatta’s little sister will probably forever be saddled with that moniker, but thus far she’s done her best to establish herself as a star in her own right and I can only see that status improving as her career goes on.
She’s notched two facile victories so far and a Stakes race is surely next on the agenda. The $300,000 Santa Margarita Invitational next weekend had been earmarked as her potential Stakes debut but a bruised foot sustained following her second win last month has put those plans on hold.
Whenever she does finally make her first attempt at Stakes company she looks like being a very tough nut to crack and who’d bet against her starring at the Breeders’ Cup come November like her big sister?
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