As the last horse crossed the line in the St. Leger – the horse that I backed incidentally – winter inched one step closer, and we are now only a matter of weeks away from the national hunt season kicking in to high gear.Thus it is time for my now bi-annual look at ten to follow from the upcoming season.
Last year’s ten horses did us proud over the course of the season, with many running well at the highest level on multiple occasions. I’ve tried to be a bit more creative with this jumps season’s ten to follow whilst still not going too left of centre. By that I mean sticking to horses that have the potential to make it to the top of the tree over whatever obstacle it is they end up lining up against in 2013-2014, but trying to avoid the glaringly obvious.
So without further ado, here are my ten horse to follow for the 2013-2014 National Hunt season:-
1. Don Cossack – Gordon Elliot’s Gigginstown-owned brute went in to last season with a big reputation, but sadly didn’t quite live up to the hype.
However there was a suspicion that perhaps last season was more of a formality than anything else as Don Cossack has always looked a chaser.
You only need look back at some of his novice hurdle runs from last season to see that he leapt those obstacles like they were fences, making a larger than necessary shape over them whilst some of his opponents were extremely economical over their hurdles.
He still ran with credit on all his starts last season with form figures of 1F23 and you need only look back to his bumper campaign from the previous season when he was winning races by 17/18 lengths to see that Don Cossack is clearly a talented animal.
He’s been compared favourably to the mighty Denman by some and at only six hopefully has a long career over fences ahead of him. I’m expecting a big novice chase campaign from him this coming season and it’d be no surprise to see Don Cossack go right to the very top in this sphere.
Selected 2013-2014 Best Odds: RSA 25/1, Jewson 33/1 (Both Bet365)
2. Clondaw Court – The words bumper, Willie and Mullins are pretty much synonymous with each other at this point and the dominant Irish trainer enjoyed another fruitful campaign on the level throughout last winter.
In amongst all the high profile bumper winners for the Mullins yard, it was the winner of a pretty ordinary bumper last November that took my eye and really made a lasting impression.
Clondaw Court had been an impressive point-to-pointer prior to joining Mullins for major patrons the Riccis and he built on that in no uncertain terms on his only start under rules to date, romping home by 27l in very taking fashion.
He was instantly catapulted towards the head of the market for Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper only to then not make another race course appearance last season following a setback.
A novice hurdle campaign beckons this season and he could be another top talent for the owners who enjoyed such a great season in novice hurdles last season.
Selected 2013-2014 Best Odds: Neptune 25/1 (Bet365, Stan James)
3. Pure Science – Another horse that impressed me from the bumper scene last season was Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Pure Science.
The son of Galileo easily landed a Warwick bumper on debut beating a couple of subsequent winners. He then disappointed a little by only finishing fourth at Newbury on his next start, however the horses that beat him that day all look decent sorts especially the winner, Harry Fry’s Oscar Rock; and he also had a next time out winner in behind him that day.
Pure Science was then sent off at 33/1 for Cheltenham’s bumper on the back of his Newbury defeat having been much shorter for the festival race prior to that loss. He was never able to land a blow in the big one though having been given far too much to do, but caught the eye staying on fast and late up the hill from a mile back to grab sixth, and we all know the strength in depth the Champion Bumper normally has.
He was due to contest the Aintree equivalent too, bidding to make it back to back runnings for his trainer who had taken it with The New One the year before, but was a late withdrawal and instead went to Ayr two weeks later and capitulated having been sent off an even money favourite.
You need to forgive that last run, but having been pulled out late at Aintree I’m hoping he just wasn’t right for whatever reason up in Scotland because prior to that he had looked a very promising sort and I have high hopes that he can make the sort of impact in novice hurdles this season that his aforementioned stable mate did last season.
4. Boston Bob – If you’re feeling a sense of deja vu here it is because I also named Boston Bob as one of my ten to follow last national hunt season, and for the most part he did us proud.
He wasn’t exactly impressive when getting off the mark over fences on his first start, but flew home late when looking beaten in the Dr. Moriarty to win in a thrilling finish (subsequent RSA 1-2 Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend back in 3rd and 4th).
I’d long fancied him for the RSA dating back to his novice hurdle campaign and he looked the likely winner of that race before coming down at the last.
At the time I thought he looked a sitting duck for those in behind having gone to the front after the third last, but watching it back he looked to have too many gears for his pursuers and if Paul Townend hadn’t asked him for a big jump at the last my gut feeling is he’d have got over and outstayed them up the hill.
Despite meeting with two of his four defeats to date at the course I still think he is a Cheltenham horse and backed him for this year’s Gold Cup on the back of that RSA run. Naturally I was disappointed to then see him come down again at Punchestown on his latest start, but that really was a bizarre race and I’m sure Paul Townend would admit it wasn’t his finest hour, having held on to Boston Bob so long he was practically detached at half way.
In spite of falling for the second race in a row there was a lot to like about the ground he made up from so far back and he was actually in contention, albeit with a great deal to do, when he eventually fell.
Ruby Walsh may have overlooked him twice last season in the big races but Ruby’s decision to focus first and foremost on the Mullins string this season can only have enhanced Boston Bob’s chances of a big year. I may be deluding myself a little but I could even see Ruby riding him in the Gold Cup if he does in fact line up and that would be a great result all round.
I could just be in danger of following Boston Bob off a cliff but I’ve always thought of him as a future Gold Cup winner and I’m not ready to desert that mindset just yet.
Selected 2013-2014 Best Odds: Gold Cup 25/1 (Bet Victor) [NRFB]
5. Sizing Machine – Showed decent enough novice hurdle form last season, placing in a couple of valuable contests but looked a natural at the chasing game on his first start over fences earlier this summer.
He ran out an easy 14l winner at Kilbeggan that day and was as a result sent off a short-priced favourite to repeat the feat at Killarney just under three weeks later. A mistake five out when leading seemed to knock the stuffing out of him though and although he carried on and finished fifth he was eventually well beaten, albeit by some decent enough horses.
If you can forgive that somewhat disappointing outcome he is still a hugely exciting prospect, before the blunder last time out he was travelling well again and I have high hopes that on his next start he’ll show the same sort of exuberance for the chasing game we saw on his first start over fences.
Either way, there’s no denying that this lightly-raced five-year-old has the potential to be another star in the making for the mighty Sizing Europe’s connections.
6. Coneygree – My idea of the Albert Bartlett winner for most of last season, Coneygree is another novice hurdler that whilst by no means a mug over the smaller obstacles seemed to just be completing the formalities before launching in to his natural destiny, which is that of a staying chaser.
Half brother to Hennessy winner Carruthers, Coneygree was bred to stay and was unbeaten over hurdles until being outpaced over an extended 2m4f at Cheltenham last January. However when you consider the two that beat him were subsequent Neptune and Albert Bartlett winners The New One and At Fishers Cross it was by no means a disgrace and he was still well clear of Nicky Henderson’s useful French import Whisper back in fourth.
Prior to that he’d been very impressive landing a novice hurdle by 20l and then easily winning two Grade 2 Cheltenham events; sadly though that’s where his season finished and he missed Cheltenham and the other big end of season festivals through injury.
Hopefully though that means he’ll return for his novice chase campaign fresh and better than ever and I fancy he could be one of the breakout stars of this season and even a possible Gold Cup horse in time. He’s always been rated more highly at home than his more illustrious sibling so if he can surpass Carruthers’ exploits even slightly he could be set for one mighty fine chase career.
Selected 2013-2014 Best Odds: RSA 25/1 (Paddy Power)
7. Un Atout – This season could be a vintage year for novice chasers, with several top class hurdlers making the move to the larger obstacles and there weren’t many more exciting talents over hurdles last season than Willie Mullins’ Un Atout.
The half brother to Gold Cup second Sir Des Champs has only met defeat once since arriving at Willie Mullins’ yard and that was a highly creditable fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle behind three high class animals.
His career prior to that had been one of easy victories in poor races, he still had to get the job done though and he did so in such a way that he got a lot of people very excited.
Cheltenham was probably a big ask given his rather fledgling career up to that point, and although he made hard work of his last start of the season when a narrow neck winner from Ubak in a Grade 1 at Punchestown on his first start at 2m4f there was a lot to like about the way he fought back and ground out the win having looked beat at one point.
Given his breeding the longer distances should suit, but the fact he had the speed to finish fourth in a strong renewal of the Supreme marks him out as a horse with serious potential over a variety of distances.
Selected 2013-2014 Best Odds: Arkle 16/1 (Stan James), RSA 16/1 (Paddy Power, Bet365), Jewson 16/1 (Bet365)
8. Tanerko Emery – David Pipe’s seven-year-old improved dramatically last season running exceptionally well on each start including racking up three wins.
His three wins all came in quite lowly races but he was a good second to the talented Ifandbutwhynot at Cheltenham on Paddy Power Gold Cup day which brought to him to a lot of people’s attention.
It then appeared he was laid out for the Welsh Champion Hurdle (his owner’s race) and he came cruising in to contention in great style only to be outdone by the step-up in trip having never raced at 2m4f before. He eventually finished third in the race, but with winner Medinas going on to win the Coral Cup at Cheltenham it was by no means a bad renewal.
From there he went to the Imperial Cup and ran a blinder in a typically competitive field under a big weight, I actually think he should have won that race but having been given far too much to do never really had a chance and though he blundered the last – understandably on appalling ground – he was still staying on strongly at the finish, grabbing second.
It’s testament to his durability and toughness that after running in a bog at Sandown, just six days later he turned out again in the County Hurdle at the festival. In another fiercely competitive race on ground that looked worse than the official good to soft he again ran well coming from a mile back to grab fifth.
He might have been campaigned as a handicapper last season but I feel that Tanerko Emery has the ability to make it at graded level this season. He’ll go on any ground, is as tough as they come and stays 2m and just over very strongly, if granted a bit more luck in running and a couple of slightly more forward-thinking rides in the coming season he could be getting back to winning ways very quickly.
9. Rocky Creek – Anybody that bets solely based on which box a horse occupies at home is someone that deserves to lose their money, but the fact that this lad has been given the box formerly occupied by the mighty Denman – on Ditcheat’s ‘millionaire’s row’ – just shows the regard in which he’s held at home.
And like the superstar that formerly filled his quarters I believe Rocky Creek can also win the Hennessy.
Big things have always been expected of the lightly raced seven-year-old and after a novice hurdle campaign that saw him land a Grade 2 event he was sent chasing last season and enjoyed a pretty fruitful campaign.
His even money defeat on his first chase start might have initially seemed a shock but his conqueror that day Harry Topper went on to prove himself a very good horse indeed. From there he racked up a hat-trick including the Grade 2 Reynoldstown at Ascot; it was his 15l Warwick romp that really impressed though.
After that winning run talk naturally turned to Cheltenham, but as he had done with Silviniaco Conti the previous year Paul Nicholls elected to swerve Cheltenham in favour of Aintree with his potential superstar. This time around though it didn’t quite work as well as it did with his eventual Betfair Chase winner twelve months earlier and Rocky Creek could only manage a distant third behind the top class Dynaste.
A cynic might suggest that defeat will only have aided his Hennessy quest given that he was dropped a pound for it rather than being raised considerably as he may have been had he run better, but one bad run is always easy to forgive whatever the circumstances and this horse has been too good and seems too highly thought of for that to have been his true running.
I’ve heard the Hennessy talked about for Rocky Creek for some time now and the way he jumps, travels and stays sure mark him out as a Hennessy horse.
Selected 2013-2014 Best Odds: King George 66/1 (Stan James), Gold Cup 50/1 (Stan James)
10. Saint Are – In the aftermath of this year’s Grand National I was once again licking my wounds as Cappa Bleu had gone so near yet so far for me, but when the dust settled it was the performance of ninth placed Saint Are that had me looking forward to the 2014 renewal of the race.
On paper finishing ninth in the Grand National is hardly anything to jump up and down about but Saint Are came from a long way back, admittedly past tired horses, but his staying on effort at the business end of affairs was eye-catching. Time and time again we’ve seen horses come back and run well in the big race having completed the previous year and go on to improve their position.
Saint Are is only seven still and thus should have at least a couple more Nationals in him when, from a stats point of view, he should be at his peak for the race. Tim Vaughan’s horse has always been well thought of and was fancied by some for last year’s Hennessy when falling, he always runs well at Aintree though and is a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at the Liverpool track as well as having landed the Listed John Smith’s Chase at the National meeting in 2012 over the Mildmay course.
On the back of a pretty ropey effort in the Bet365 Gold Cup on his last start just three weeks after his National run, Saint Are now finds himself on his lowest ever chase mark, 1lb lower than when victorious at Aintree some eighteen months ago.
He may only have two victories to his name as a jumper but they are both in very competitive contests and even if he doesn’t go on to land the National or make the frame in the world’s most famous horse race, which may be a tad optimistic, I certainly think he is now handicapped to win races this season.
But if he does make it to the Grand National I would certainly recommend him as a good each-way bet.
Selected 2013-2014 Best Odds: Grand National 50/1 (Bet365, Bet Victor, Stan James)
Bets to Have Now:
RSA Chase 2014 - Don Cossack 0.25pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) / Coneygree 0.25pt e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)
Neptune 2014 – Clondaw Court 0.25pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)
Already Advised:
Gold Cup 2014 – Boston Bob 1pt win @ 25/1
Grand National 2014 – Saint Are 0.5pt e/w @ 50/1
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