Supreme Novices' Hurdle Preview - Festival Focus

Liquid Dreams - The Liquidator has already won at Cheltenham and looks a big price for the Supreme

The Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser is always a highlight of the week, from the ‘roar’ that greets the dropping of the tape to the often surprising results the race can throw up, suffice to say the opener is never dull.

Prior to Champagne Fever last year the previous four years had all seen winners priced in double figures and even the mighty Willie Mullins managed to win it with a 40/1 shot in 2007.

In fact there hasn’t been a winning favourite in the race since Brave Inca emerged victorious in 2004. The list of horses beaten in this race reads like a who’s who of National Hunt racing over the last few seasons as well: Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card, Binocular, Oscar Whisky, Somersby, even dual Royal Ascot winner Simenon trailed in last in 2012.

That all doesn’t bode particularly well for current favourite Irving, but the way in which he won the Dovecote last weekend suggests that he is more than up to the challenge of ending the losing streak of favourites in this race.

He’s unbeaten over hurdles and represents a trainer that has won this race before having taken it with Al Ferof in 2011. Paul Nicholls has been careful with this potential superstar and though I, like many people, think he would have won the Betfair Hurdle had he run, if he can land the Supreme his trainer’s caution will be more than justified.

JLT Novices' Chase Preview - Festival Focus

Yong Gun - Felix Yonger is the selection in the JLT

This race sprung a little bit of a surprise last year as Benefficient ensured Irish dominance of the race continued with a 20/1 victory.

Now sponsored by JLT the race formerly known as the Jewson will enjoy Grade 1 status this year for the first time but though some things change I expect others to stay very much the same and for Ireland to once again emerge victorious.

Willie Mullins has already taken this race once – with Sir Des Champs in 2012 – and he looks poised to land the spoils again this year with Felix Yonger.

The son of Oscar was one of several horses under the ownership of the Wylies that joined Willie Mullins after the Howard Johnson shenanigans.

He’d been a decent Bumper performer for Johnson, albeit trailing in almost last in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in 2011.

Albert Bartlett Preview - Festival Focus

Running Up That Hill - last year's Bumper winner Briar Hill can follow up in the Albert Bartlett

With it currently 10/1 bar the top two it’s not hard to argue that there could be some serious value lurking in this year’s Albert Bartlett.

That said, it is one of the top two I fancy for the novice staying hurdle event, and a previous festival winner at that.

Willie Mullins once again has an exceptional pack of novice hurdlers and it’s taken some shuffling to get each horse in the right place. You’d be a brave person to suggest that the final plans were anywhere near concrete just yet but thankfully now Bet365 have gone Non Runner No Bet on every festival race it allows us to wager ante-post with a lot less trepidation.

Time and time again at Cheltenham you see horses that have run well at the festival before replicate that form, and in recent years the number of horses that have won a race and then come back and won again the following year has been rather startling.

The Champion Bumper in particular is a race in which victorious horses, and even placed horses, almost always come back in latter years and run well again.

Just in the last six years we’ve had Dunguib finish in the money in the Supreme twelve months on from a runaway Bumper success, Cue Card come back and run well in the Supreme before a placed effort in the Arkle and a dominant Ryanair win and most recently Champagne Fever win the Supreme one year removed from taking the Bumper.

Last year’s Bumper winner Briar Hill also hails from the Willie Mullins yard and comes in to this year’s festival with a perfect record.

Triumph Hurdle Preview - Festival Focus

Ell of a Chance - Tiger Roll can go close in the Triumph for Gordon Elliot

The Triumph was one of the first Cheltenham races I took an ante-post view in this year and after a rather lacklustre effort at Doncaster last time out it looked as though the 16/1 I took about Royal Irish Hussar hadn’t been as shrewd as I thought at the time.

Guitar Pete’s subsequent exploits though have resurrected some shred of hope that Nicky Henderson’s former Ballydoyle inmate can still factor in the final reckoning of Friday’s opening race.

It wasn’t so much the horses that beat him that day that was so off-putting, as Broughton currently sits fourth in the betting for the festival juvenile contest and was an above average flat performer for Mark Johnston while winner Fox Norton also looks a decent sort, but the visual of Royal Irish Hussar’s effort.

He looked all at sea on the run-in and there really weren’t any excuses to be made. You have to just forgive and forget that run, if like me, you’ve already backed him for the Triumph and thankfully Guitar Pete has significantly boosted both his, and in the process, Broughton’s form.

Ryanair Preview - Festival Focus

Wishing For a Star - Wishfull Thinking is one of two fragile but talented Ryanair selections

If there’s one Cheltenham race for which the current market nowhere near accurately represents the likely field then it has to be the Ryanair Chase.

As things stand the race won by the likes of Imperial Commander, Albertas Run, Riverside Theatre and Cue Card has several horses at the head of the market that are unlikely to run.

Aside from current ante-post favourite Benefficient (winner of the novice equivalent of this race last year) the first seven in the betting all look unlikely to run here with the majority – Cue Card, Al Ferof, First Lieutenant and Dynaste – all looking like heading for the Gold Cup.

Obviously if any of these top class performers did line up here they would be feared and more than likely be a rather short-priced favourite come the off.

For the purposes of this piece though we’re going to assume that none of the aforementioned horses take the soft option and come to the Ryanair in spite of its Grade 1 status, rather electing to go for glory in the Gold Cup.

Neptune Preview - Festival Focus

Elementary - Red Sherlock is fancied to land the Neptune

The Neptune has produced some great winners over the years – Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and in recent years First Lieutenant, Peddlers Cross, Simonsig and The New One.

This year’s race looks set to unearth yet another superstar as a talented list of entries remain in the novice contest but with a hot ante-post favourite from Willie Mullins, the horse that appeals to me as the most likely winner still sits at a decent price in spite of his recent contraction.

My original ante-post pick Clondaw Court is not dead in the water yet and I do hope he runs here but with the favourite Faugheen in the same ownership it looks unlikely, and if a Cheltenham run is in Clondaw Court’s future it is more than likely going to be in the Albert Bartlett.

Therefore the unbeaten Red Sherlock is now my selection for the race as things stand, his recent battling win at Cheltenham in which he and Rathvinden (not far off being one of Mullins’ best novice hurdlers) pulled well clear of a decent field cementing that sentiment.