York Ebor Festival Preview

Next week is York’s Ebor Festival and some truly great Racing is in prospect.

Headlined by the richest flat handicap in Europe the Ebor, the four day meeting has an extra element of intrigue this year as it will be home to the mighty Frankel’s first attempt at a distance greater than a mile as he bids to win his thirteenth straight race in the Juddmonte International on the opening day of the festival.

In addition to the Juddmonte and the Ebor there is also the Great Voltigeur which should offer up a few last minute clues to whether there is anything truly capable of defeating Camelot in the St. Leger next month and the Nunthorpe, one of only a handful of sprints which will pits horses of all ages against each other.

With just over a week to go until York kicks off its most anticipated meeting of the year, the markets have started to take shape for all the aforementioned races and ate-post punters may be able to find a bit of value out there.

The Juddmonte certainly looks like being the Frankel show and his current best odds of 1/7 tend to support that theory. As such this year’s Juddmonte makes no appeal as a betting race, especially from an ante-post perspective with the likelihood that taking on Frankel will scare away most of the opposition as it did in the Sussex Stakes at the beginning of the month.

We know his pacemaker Bullet Train (100/1) will be there as will stable mate, and last year’s winner, Twice Over (20/1) but beyond that it’s tough to speculate who else will actually line up come the off next Wednesday.

I never thought for a minute Cirrus Des Aigles would make the journey across the Channel just to be destroyed by Frankel and that has now all but been confirmed.

John Gosden has always suggested that Nathaniel and Frankel would end their careers as they began them, by facing each other, so that would suggest the Champion Stakes is being earmarked for that mouth-watering clash rather than here; and Nathaniel also has an entry in the Irish equivalent of that race so his participation next week would seem unlikely.

Of the other potential punching bags for Frankel, only Farhh – whom he has already well and truly put in his place in the Sussex – and St. Nicholas Abbey (both 8/1) look capable of even being considered a viable threat to ‘the freak’.

The latter is without doubt a talented individual but he is not in Frankel’s league and providing Sir Henry Cecil’s colt handles the step up in trip, which we’ve seen no evidence to suggest he won’t, the result should be the same as every single one of Frankel’s other races to date.

If taking her chance, if I was to have a bet on the race as things stand at the moment, I’d be tempted by last year’s Oaks winner Dancing Rain (70/1 on the exchanges) as she’ll no doubt be up at the head of affairs and gets weight from the colts. If she is just left to run her race rather than trying to live with Frankel then she may be able to hang on for some of the minor honours, especially if some of his more fancied rivals try to mix it with Frankel. She’s by no means a guaranteed runner though so a little caution may need to be thrown to the wind when taking a punt at this stage.

Away from Frankel on day one there is also a fascinating renewal of the Great Voltigeur, won so impressively last year by Sea Moon. This is really the last chance that the three-year-olds get to test their credentials for the season’s final Classic the St. Leger and as such is always a very insightful race.

In seasons past it’s not been a race that has attracted a vintage line-up but this year’s renewal looks set to change all that with only really Camelot missing from this season’s top three-year-old colts a great race looks in prospect.

Derby runner-up Main Sequence is the 3/1 favourite at present and although he looked unlucky last time out in France and is clearly a very good horse, that price looks too short in such a strong race.

The first two home in Royal Ascot’s King Edward VII are also at the head of the market as Sir Henry Cecil looks set to saddle two in the race in Thomas Chippendale (4/1) and Noble Mission (11/2). At the prices the latter makes most appeal, especially after finally getting off the mark in Group races last time out at Glorious Goodwood and the narrow manner of his defeat to his stable mate back in June.

John Gosden could saddle Shantaram (5/1) and Thought Worthy (10/1) as he bids to really cement his Leger team for a crack at landing the race for the third year in a row. Shantaram would look to have the better chance of the two, in both races, and could yet prove a shrewd Leger pick from the Racing Post’s Pricewise.

Godolophin have two major players in the shape of Goodwood second Encke (6/1) and their recently purchased German interest Energizer (12/1). The latter again is the one I’m more tempted to be with in this race as the manner of his Royal Ascot win was impressive and this race was highlighted as his target as soon as he moved to Godolphin – little can be read in to Godolphin’s jockey bookings these days so even once the field is finalised he could still be the dark horse of the race, especially given that they are having to supplement.

Aidan O’Brien could also have a strong hand in the race, in spite of Imperial Monarch heading to the Irish Champion Stakes now instead, with Athens (25/1), David Livingston (20/1) and Astrology (16/1) all potential runners. None of those stand out as potential winners really though so I’m going to stick with Noble Mission to make Wednesday a very family affair for Sir Henry Cecil, but I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on Energizer.

Friday’s Nunthorpe is another wide open affair and has a history of throwing up the odd upset or two.

Bated Breath (9/2) is currently favourite as he looks to finally land the big one, but with his chances, and participation, very much ground dependent at this juncture he’s of no real interest.

Ortensia (6/1) finally showed Britain what she was all about last time out when landing a Group 2 at Goodwood and if on song will be a major player back up to Group 1 level. However, she has tended to get a little worked up and warm in the preliminaries during her campaign on these shores and York is a course that can turn soft very quickly so she is probably best watched until right before the off.

Pearl Secret (6/1) on the other hand is a horse that has won on all ground and looked extremely impressive in doing so thus far. He’d be a very popular winner for David Barron but this is infinitely more difficult than what he has achieved to date and it would require another big step up (which he looks capable of) to take this. Given that he will go on any ground and gets weight as a three year old, he should definitely figure in your assessment of the race.

Sole Power (8/1) is a very consistent type (been second three times and third once this season) and should once again go well back at the site of that incredible 100/1 upset two years ago. He again wouldn’t want the ground soft but is a big price all things considered and must be respected; and given the season he’s been having looks nailed on to at least be placed yet again.

Hoof It (10/1) is interesting and he’s normally one I’d be tipping but he’s looked a shadow of his former self this season and I can’t bring myself to put him up this time. I’ll be thrilled if he can get back on track and win but on the strength of what he’s done so far this season I don’t think he will.

Mayson (10/1) is a huge price when you consider he’s the July Cup winner, but as predicted at the time, many are putting that win down to the ground and he will come here with something to prove – he’s clearly talented but I think if everything else runs to their best then he’ll find one or two too good this time around.

Ceiling Kitty (20/1) is interesting getting lumps of weight from everything bar Hoyam (40/1) the horse that chased her home at Royal Ascot. The weight for age allowance in this race is very generous but the two-year-olds who went for it last year ran no race and it’s a big leap of faith to think these two can live with their older peers.

Of the remainder Starspangledbanner (16/1) looked nothing like the horse he once was when flopping at The Curragh at the weekend and French raider Wizz Kid (14/1), though not completely ruled out, comes here with something to prove. Godolphin’s Soul (14/1) is another who wouldn’t mind soft ground and if that were to come in to play would have to be one to consider but if we get a proper race I would think he would probably come up a little bit short.

At this stage the two that stand out for me at the prices are Sole Power and Pearl Secret and if I was going to have a bet as things stand it’d be in that order.

The Ebor is such a competitive race to analyse it’s damn near impossible at this early stage, but obviously Motivado (5/1) is the place to start given that he’s such a clear favourite and was so impressive at Goodwood last time out.

He’s clearly a horse with great talent but the price is laughable in such a competitive heat and there is much better value to be had elsewhere in the race.

Irish raider Blackstairmountain (16/1) has come in for each-way support as has course specialist Crackentorp (16/1) but my ante-post would be Jim Goldie’s Icon Dream (25/1).

The Sadler’s Wells five-year-old is guaranteed a run if he is allowed to take his chance and his staying on third in the Northumberland Plate behind Il De Re and Crackentorp on heavy ground is solid form.

He won’t be short of stamina and the former David Wachman inmate was thought enough of to be contesting Group races when housed in Ireland. It’s been handicaps all the way since moving to England and although he’s yet to get off the mark (winless since his debut) first for David Simcock and now for Goldie he’s been knocking on the door and you’d have to say given his profile he’s still quite lightly raced really.

That Northumberland Plate run off the back of a near year-long absence was encouraging and when some have cried enough he’ll be staying on up the long York straight, Icon Dream has a little touch of class which you need to come out on top in a handicap as fiercely competitive as this and still looks well handicapped, so as such I think he’s good each-way value at 25/1, especially with Goldie and Graham Lee proving to be such a shrewd team since their link-up.

That covers the four big races next week currently priced but there are plenty of other top notch heats throughout the four days, not least on Friday where the fillies take centre stage in the Gp2 Lowther and the Gp1 Yorkshire Oaks.

The Ebor Festival is always a great meeting but this year looks like being one for the ages with a certain wonder horse in attendance.