Festival Focus - Jewson

Conan The Destroyer - Captain Conan looks a cut above his potential Jewson rivals

We’re over half way through the big races in Festival Focus now and on to day three of the festival with Thursday’s first race the Jewson Novices’ Chase.

The Jewson might still be in its infancy as a Cheltenham Festival race but with Sir Des Champs taking the race in impressive fashion last year it has already established itself as a breeding ground for future stars.

Much like the Ryanair did for the seasoned chasers the Jewson offers novice chasers an interim distance between the rapid 2 miles of the Arkle and the attritional 3 miles of the RSA.

Ireland have been responsible for both winners of this race thus far with Noble Prince taking the inaugural running in 2011 and Sir Des Champs following up for the raiders from across the Irish Sea twelve months ago.

Although there will once again no doubt be a strong Irish challenge this year it is the home team that look to have the strongest hand in the race courtesy of the Nicky Henderson trained Captain Conan.

Festival Focus - Champion Bumper

Big Willie Style - I'm hoping Mullins can win the Bumper again with Clondaw Court

The Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival can often be more of a minefield than some of the notoriously tricky-to-solve handicap races.

One stat that can always guide you though is that Willie Mullins usually has a very strong hand for the race – as evidenced by Champagne Fever’s victory in the race last year – and this year is no exception with several of the leading contenders at this stage looking likely to come from the Mullins yard.

The form of last year’s race is already working out very well this season with several of the horses from last year’s Bumper coming out and performing to a very high level this year, notably Jezki and The New One; so it is always a race to take note of for the following season’s novice hurdlers.

This year’s renewal also looks to feature a crop of horses that could potentially go on to achieve great things, but at this stage, knowing so little about many of them, it’s hard to know which will make it and which will sink without a trace.

Festival Focus - Champion Chase

Sacre Bleu! - Can anything get near Sprinter Sacre in Day 2's feature!?

Some of my Festival Focus pieces have actually been a bit of a struggle in terms of trying to decide at this early stage just what the best bets to advise in a particular races given what we know at present.

However the Queen Mother Champion Chase poses no such conundrum, because quite simply put: if Sprinter Sacre runs, he wins.

Now of course a lot can happen between now and mid-March and, God forbid, the brilliant talent may get injured in Saturday’s rearranged Victor Chandler Chase and be unable to run at the festival – it can happen to the best of them, Big Buck’s anyone?

If that unfortunate sequence of events did transpire to be the case then anybody taking odds on about Sprinter Sacre for March will look pretty foolish; however if he wins on Saturday as he looks set to do, and turns up at Cheltenham and puts up the sort of performance we know him capable of then 1/2 will look like a gift.

Festival Focus - RSA

Boston B Party - Boston Bob looks an ideal sort for the RSA

The RSA is possibly my favourite race at the Cheltenham Festival. I don’t know what it is about it, as it tends to be more of a war of attrition than a display of mercurial talent, but perhaps thanks to Denman’s fantastic win in the race back in 2007 this race is always one I look forward to more than certain others during Cheltenham week.

This year’s race however is looking increasingly sparse on top talent, perhaps due to a rather poor crop of novice chasers. Last year’s novices have proved to have been a vintage bunch through their exploits this season, but with the exception of Dynaste we really haven’t seen anything else worth getting too excited about to date.

So with that said it comes as no surprise that the David Pipe-trained grey is a very short-priced ante-post favourite for the race often called the novice Gold Cup.

Dynaste is a worthy favourite but at 5/2 he looks anything but a good price given how far away from the race we still are and just how many short-priced favourites have been turned over in this race in recent years. There’s still a part of me too that suspects he may not even run, as the RSA has a habit of really ripping horses’ guts out.

Last year’s winner and runner-up Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant have proved that you can come out of the race and kick on as a second season chaser but the list of horses who’ve never quite been the same after the RSA makes for worrying reading.

Festival Focus - The Neptune

Part Puffin, Part Machine - Puffin Billy can win the Neptune on the way to superstardom

This years’ renewal of the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle (henceforth for the purposes of this piece ‘The Neptune’) has the potential to arguably be the race of the festival given some of the likely combatants.

Of course, as is the case with most of the novice hurdles at the festival some horses at the head of the betting may end up tackling further in the Albert Bartlett or shorter in the Supreme.

One thing is for certain though, even if we do lose one or two of the potential runners in this year’s Neptune we still look set for a truly vintage renewal of the race won so impressively last year by arguably the next big thing in chasing Simonsig.

The best place to start is probably with the most aptly named horse in a novice race – The New One. The Nigel Twiston-Davies inmate’s price has collapsed since his Warwick stroll the weekend before last and although he was undoubtedly impressive that day I’m not quite convinced that in a race with as much strength in depth as this year’s Neptune has that his current price quite reflects his chance.

Argento Chase - Big Race Preview

Command Performance - If Cheltenham survives I'm hoping Imperial Commander can roll back the years

It is looking unlikely (5/6 unlikely) that we’ll get Cheltenham’s star-studded trials card on Saturday, and as such assessing the markets for the races and trying to even figure out which horses will line-up at this point looks a minefield.

However one race I have always had a sneaking suspicion for a certain horse in is the Argento Chase, and to me former Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander could be a bit of value against many of the young upstarts looking to cement their place in the festival’s blue ribbon race.

If Bobs Worth is going to win the Gold Cup as the market currently suggests he will, then he should be winning here, but at 8/1 Imperial Commander looks value each-way.

Festival Focus - Mares Hurdle

Viva Quevega - Willie Mullins' star mare can make history with a fifth festival win

The last big race to cast an eye over on day one of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival is the OLBG David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (or OLBGDNMH for ‘short’) or the Quevega Benefit Race as it has become known for the last four years; and although it might mean a shorter Festival Focus than you may have become accustomed to I can’t really see a different outcome occurring in 2013.

Quevega has been one the stars of the Cheltenham Festival now for the last half a decade and although she doesn’t seem to be able to stand much racing it is still an impressive training feat from Willie Mullins to have got her to the festival on so many consecutive occasions given her fragility.

As it stands Quevega also sits at the top of the betting for the World Hurdle and although plans can change, connections seem to have indicated this isn’t the plan and she will attempt an historic fifth straight festival win in the Mares race.

Festival Focus - Champion Hurdle

Ain't It Grand - Grandouet looks the pick of a strong Henderson hand in the Champion Hurdle

The feature race on day one of the Cheltenham festival as always will be the Champion Hurdle. The 2 mile race is the one championship race at the festival that is always capable of throwing up a surprise or two, as evidenced by Rock On Ruby’s victory in the race last year at the expense of the altogether more fancied Hurricane Fly.

Rock On Ruby should be back again to defend his crown come March, as should several of his vanquished opponents from twelve months ago, including the aforementioned Hurricane Fly.

The Champion Hurdle is usually a frantic affair and this year’s race has an extra element of intrigue around it due to many of the prominent trials for the race having been run on bog-like ground. This has meant that the majority of the leading contenders – all of whom possess bags of speed – have not really had the opportunity to show exactly what they are capable of this season over the trip.

This could be the case for a lot of the races at the festival this year, with pretty much the entire National Hunt season to date being run on bad ground, but the races with an emphasis on speed such as the Champion Hurdle will be even more greatly affected.

Festival Focus - The Arkle

Turn up for the Books - Can Overturn upset Simonsig in the Arkle?

Much like the first day of what is probably the flat season’s comparable meeting of the year Royal Ascot; day one of the Cheltenham Festival features a myriad of top class races.

You wait all year for it to come around and then within just a couple of hours you feel spoilt with all the Grade 1 action. Not long after the Supreme will have hopefully got us off to a great start to the week, the Arkle will be upon us and like last year Nicky Henderson once again looks set to saddle a very short-priced favourite.

Sprinter Sacre justified his punitive odds last year when hacking up in the race and Henderson’s charge for 2013 looks likely to do the same. Simonsig has always looked a very special horse indeed but since his belated return to the track to begin his novice chase campaign late last year he has looked unstoppable.

The manner and margin of his victories has been impressive and although he hasn’t really beaten much – as is the case with most of these – on his hurdles form (he won the Neptune last year at the Festival before going on to win at Aintree) and generally just how exciting he’s looked over fences – 49 and 35l victories, last time out giving nearly a stone to the useful Hinterland – he looks the most likely winner.

However, and this could be a case of heart ruling head, I’m trying to pick out some value ante-post bets and there’s no value in an even money favourite, at least note at the stakes I usually play with.

Festival Focus - Supreme Novices' Hurdle

#1 With a Bullet - Dodging Bullets is my first advised bet for the Cheltenham Festival

It’s hard to believe it’s only sixty days until the Cheltenham Festival kicks off again for another year. Over the coming weeks I’m going to try and preview all the Graded races over the four days and hopefully pick out a view value bets that will eventually become winning tips.

It seems only right that this year’s round of Festival Focus previews would begin with the first race of the week – the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – a race which is famous for starting with the ‘Cheltenham roar’ from the crowd that usually signifies the beginning of an unforgettable week of Racing action.

In recent years a feature of the Supreme has been a short-priced favourite that everyone thinks will be a ‘good thing’ to begin the week with to be beaten. Cousin Vinny, Dunguib and Cue Card have all had this fate befall them in the last few years.

Whilst this year, as yet, we have no such short-priced market leader at the head of the betting, we do have two very good horses from either side of the Irish Sea.

Cheltenham & Grand National - Ante-Post

Back Again - I'm hoping Cappa Bleu can better last year's fourth in the Grand National this year

Earlier this evening I was on a 'best bets 2013' special on digital station Yorkshire Radio - a station I pop up on from time to time to discuss the latest goings on in the world of Horse Racing.

For the purpose of the show I put forward two long range bets in ante-post markets, both intentionally larger priced selections. To keep this site up to date with what I’ve been tipping you can see both selections and the reasons behind them below.

Though Bobs Worth looks far and away the most likely Gold Cup winner to me with two consecutive festival wins under his belt, at 3/1 he’s not much of a price.

A horse that I think still looks a bit of value though for Cheltenham though happens to be in the very the first race. You’re taking a chance, because both Jezki and Puffin Billy – likely opposition in the race – have looked class acts so far this season but at 14/1 Dodging Bullets for Paul Nicholls looks a big price.

The Supreme is renowned for throwing up a surprise or two and I think given the experience this horse has in spite of still technically being classed as a novice could count for a lot – let’s not forget he ran well enough in the Triumph at last year’s festival when fourth on only his second start over hurdles.

His third in the Christmas Hurdle looks like a strong piece of form too, especially given that the winner of that race Darlan is currently 4/1 co-favourite for the Champion Hurdle.

Dodging Bullets seems to be constantly improving, is from the yard that won the race the year before last with Al Ferof and having been bred by Frankie Dettori would be a hell of a story were he to win at Cheltenham given the year his breeder has had.

Looking further ahead, my ante-post pick at the start of the season for the Aintree showpiece the Grand National was Teaforthree (25/1) but if he wins the Welsh National on Saturday as I expect him to then I’m a little worried about how much weight he’ll end up with and whether he will even ultimately end up running.

So as it stands I’d suggest Cappa Bleu also at 25/1 would be a solid bet. I was big on this horse last year tipping him to anyone who’d listen and he ran a good race to finish fourth. He was held up in the race and given a lot to do and with the excitement of the finish it was kind of lost just how strongly he was coming home.

The yard are masters at getting a horse back to the National in peak condition every year – as they did with State of Play four years on the spin to place in three of them and he looks to be having a quiet campaign this time around to preserve his mark.

He’s an out and out stayer and I think 25/1 is an attractive price all things considered up to this point whether you’re betting outright or each-way.

Welsh National - Big Race Preview

Anyone for Tea? - Teaforthree can land the Welsh National for the home team on Saturday

What better way to shake off the festive racing hangover than with the rearranged Welsh National from Chepstow on Saturday!?

I’ve long fancied long time ante-post favourite Teaforthree for the race and although it’s easy to say that with him now 3/1 favourite for the race, hopefully anyone who checked out my Ten To Follow list from the start of the jumps season will know I’ve been sweet on this horse for the big staying events of the season for some time.

The value may now all but be gone but I am confident of a big run from Teaforthree on Saturday and I'm really struggling to see anything in there that can beat Rebecca Curtis’s horse.

He appears to have had a well-plotted campaign to get to this point – his sixth in what looks to have been a particularly strong Hennessy standing out even more now than it did at the time with the second and third having come out and been 1-2 in the Lexus.

Tony McCoy gets on well with this horse and although he wasn’t aboard for the horse’s biggest win to date – in the four miler at the festival – he knows the horse and it’s not exactly a well-kept secret that this has been the target for the horse for quite some time.