Gold Cup 2016 – Festival Focus

Poli Express - Don Poli can enhance his Festival record to 3 out of 3 by winning the big one.

This year’s Gold Cup has been billed as one of the best in recent years and whilst a great race is surely in prospect, it is difficult to suggest a winner beyond the first six or so horses in the betting, indicating that perhaps this year’s race won’t be the deep, deep contest many had suggested.

As such, with the clutch of horses one can argue could win the race numbering but a few, there look to be some very solid place claims at the head of the market and with there still no out and out clear favourite there looks to be some boring – but sensible – each way bets to nothing or a small profit to be had, none more so than the selection.

Rather than go through why the other six or seven ‘big guns’ can and can’t win the race, as there are legitimate question marks hanging over all the main protagonists, I’ll focus on why the horse I think will win can land the festival blue riband.

In the wake of last year’s RSA I pegged Don Poli as a Gold Cup winner in waiting and backed him to ascend to such heights this season accordingly. 

King George 2015 Preview

Conti-nued Dominance? - Don't Give up on Silviniaco Conti before the King George.

This year’s King George is shaping up to be one for the ages.

If the likely protagonists all do in fact turn up at Kempton on Boxing Day we could be in for one of the best renewals in recent memory (insert your own Christmas pun here).

The common consensus at the moment seems to be that are witnessing the dawning of another era of chasing superstars. I was only just getting in to racing when Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded et al were at their peak and it was kind of lost on me at the time just how lucky we were to have so many shining lights at the top of their game at the same time.

We’ve not exactly been starved of talent since, but the last twelve months or so has seen a huge influx of potential superstars to the chasing game and although we’ve yet to get that big showdown where all their paths cross, the King George could be just that, and as a result there is definitely some serious value in the ante-post market at present.

Festival Focus – RSA Chase 2015

On Top At The Pols - Don Poli can stay on for glory in the RSA.

This year’s RSA picture is muddied by the fact that the two horses at the head of the market at present could both run in different races at the festival.

After Coneygree’s impressive romp at the weekend – and given what an open (read, terrible) renewal of the race it looks – I’d say connections will now go for the Gold Cup with him.

Don Poli on the other hand has long been touted for the four-miler but I for one cannot see Willie Mullins not running his best staying novice in the RSA, regardless of whether that means son Patrick will get to ride him in the amateur event.

I’ve been keen on Don Poli all season – he was one of my horses to follow this season – and he’s done nothing to dampen that enthusiasm in his two chase starts to date, including when winning a good renewal of the Topaz (a solid RSA trial) at Leopardstown over Christmas, the form of which was franked at the weekend by Apache Stronghold.

With Valseur Lido looking more like a horse for which the intermediate trip will be more his bag, Gigginstown don’t really have another representative for the RSA, whereas for the four-miler they have a readymade alternative in Wounded Warrior and could also run Thunder and Roses and Very Wood.

Ten To Follow - National Hunt 2013 - 2014

As the last horse crossed the line in the St. Leger – the horse that I backed incidentally – winter inched one step closer, and we are now only a matter of weeks away from the national hunt season kicking in to high gear.

Thus it is time for my now bi-annual look at ten to follow from the upcoming season.

Last year’s ten horses did us proud over the course of the season, with many running well at the highest level on multiple occasions. I’ve tried to be a bit more creative with this jumps season’s ten to follow whilst still not going too left of centre. By that I mean sticking to horses that have the potential to make it to the top of the tree over whatever obstacle it is they end up lining up against in 2013-2014, but trying to avoid the glaringly obvious.

So without further ado, here are my ten horse to follow for the 2013-2014 National Hunt season:-

Festival Focus - Albert Bartlett

Gree-t Expectations - Coneygree looks massively overpriced for the Albert Bartlett

The Albert Bartlett is the pre-cursor to the Gold Cup on the final day of the festival, but over the past few years the race has thrown up a few horses that have gone on to mix it in Gold Cup company down the road, not least this year’s ante-post favourite for the Gold Cup Bobs Worth who took the race in 2011.

Last year saw the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze gallop his opponents in to the ground and it is highly likely we could see a similar sort of display this year too.

Like so many festival races many of the perceived leading protagonists in the race could end up elsewhere yet, and more so than many of the other races there looks a very real possibility that the Albert Bartlett could completely fall apart.

Pont Alexandre looks more likely to go for the Neptune (for which he is a short priced favourite) as does Taquin Du Seuil. Champagne Fever would too seem an unlikely contender at this point as in spite of getting his career back on track recently with another Grade 1 win last year’s Champion Bumper winner has seemed better suited to two and a half miles.

I absolutely adore Gevrey Chambertin and although I would love to see him contest this I have my suspicions that he may be aimed at one of the more valuable handicaps during the week, several of which he holds entries in.

If Grands Crus’ full brother were to line-up here I’d give him an outstanding each-way chance, as he has always looked a future superstar but I’m going to proceed on the basis he does go down the handicap route.

My idea of the winner of this race has always been Coneygree and I’ve backed him for the race at considerably shorter than he is now.

Festival Focus - The Neptune

Part Puffin, Part Machine - Puffin Billy can win the Neptune on the way to superstardom

This years’ renewal of the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle (henceforth for the purposes of this piece ‘The Neptune’) has the potential to arguably be the race of the festival given some of the likely combatants.

Of course, as is the case with most of the novice hurdles at the festival some horses at the head of the betting may end up tackling further in the Albert Bartlett or shorter in the Supreme.

One thing is for certain though, even if we do lose one or two of the potential runners in this year’s Neptune we still look set for a truly vintage renewal of the race won so impressively last year by arguably the next big thing in chasing Simonsig.

The best place to start is probably with the most aptly named horse in a novice race – The New One. The Nigel Twiston-Davies inmate’s price has collapsed since his Warwick stroll the weekend before last and although he was undoubtedly impressive that day I’m not quite convinced that in a race with as much strength in depth as this year’s Neptune has that his current price quite reflects his chance.