King George 2015 Preview

Conti-nued Dominance? - Don't Give up on Silviniaco Conti before the King George.

This year’s King George is shaping up to be one for the ages.

If the likely protagonists all do in fact turn up at Kempton on Boxing Day we could be in for one of the best renewals in recent memory (insert your own Christmas pun here).

The common consensus at the moment seems to be that are witnessing the dawning of another era of chasing superstars. I was only just getting in to racing when Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded et al were at their peak and it was kind of lost on me at the time just how lucky we were to have so many shining lights at the top of their game at the same time.

We’ve not exactly been starved of talent since, but the last twelve months or so has seen a huge influx of potential superstars to the chasing game and although we’ve yet to get that big showdown where all their paths cross, the King George could be just that, and as a result there is definitely some serious value in the ante-post market at present.

Jumps Ten To Follow – 2015-2016

Run of the Mil - Milsean (left) features in my Ten To Follow and is an early fancy for the NH Chase.

It’s that magical time of year again as the National Hunt season proper edges tantalisingly closer by the day.

That flat turf season has once again had its moments over the sorry excuse for a summer we’ve endured, but the excitement that comes with the return of jumps stars past, present and future simply cannot be rivalled.

As always around this time of year I like to highlight some horses to look out for over the winter months in a blatant rip-off of the popular Ten To Follow format.

We all know about the big guns likely to be making headlines over the coming months – Faugheen, Un De Sceaux, Vautour et al (what an embarrassment of riches Willie Mullins truly has) but what about some potential greats that could make an even bigger name for themselves this season?

We’re hardly talking curveballs here but we’re trying to stay away from the blindingly obvious and flag up horses that will hopefully build on promise already shown and go on to establish themselves in the upper echelons of the British and Irish National Hunt hierarchy.

So without further waffle from me, here is my Jumps Ten To Follow for 2015-2016:

Top 5 Kauto Star Races

King - The legendary Kauto Star will never be forgotten.

This post was originally published in 2012, but given the devastating news that broke this morning that Kauto Star had been put down, I wanted to celebrate the incredible career he enjoyed until his retirement two and a half years ago.

It still hasn't properly sunk in that he's gone and it probably won't for some time. This horse is the reason I'm a horse racing fan - his career taking off coinciding almost perfectly with my interest in the sport sparking, and he brought so much joy to me and his legions of fans.

The true embodiment of the term 'the people's horse', no other equine star could put you through such a range of emotions as King Kauto. He was the most precociously talented jumps horse I've had the pleasure of seeing and he enjoyed a career at the top of the game that may never be emulated again.

Whether he was the greatest of all time is an argument that realistically you can never truly settle, but he is certainly the greatest of my lifetime and his accomplishments and contribution to horse racing and sport in general will live long in the memory and never be forgotten.

In tribute to the life of the brilliant Kauto Star - once again his top five race course performances... 

The Derby 2015 Preview

Jack the Lad - Jack Hobbs looks the value alternative to the favourite in the Derby.

Unlike the Oaks, the Derby has a strong favourite taking a big chunk out of the market meaning there are some bigger prices about some of the leading contenders as things stand.

As impressed as I was with Golden Horn’s Dante win, at a general 7/4 and given his owner-breeder’s fears over his stamina you simply have to try and take him on and be prepared to look foolish in doing so if his undoubted class is enough to get him home in front or if he in fact does stay and all this speculation is proved unfounded.

That said, it’s easier said than done to find an alternative with question marks hanging over so many of the field for one reason or another.

Prior to the Chester Vase I had a daft each-way bet on Hans Holbein at a ridiculous price which given how many of the other Coolmore battalion have failed to make it to the race or even impress on their way to it in the case of some of the survivors no longer seems that daft.

The Oaks 2015 Preview

Crystal Ballin' - Crystal Zvezda looks a major player in the Oaks.

It took a while to get there, but with the middle two classics of the season just days away now the markets for this year’s Derby and Oaks have finally taken shape.

The fancy prices may have disappeared now but with so much uncertainty over so many contenders in both races over the last few months playing the waiting game with Epsom 2015 has probably been a smart move.

With a short-priced favourite in the Derby there definitely looks to be some value lurking and although the Oaks looks more open, at least as far as the betting goes, I’m pretty keen on the chances of one of the main challengers.

The filly in question is Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Zvezda, an impressive winner of a Listed race at Newbury last month, the same race last year’s Oaks third Volume won en route to Epsom.

Scottish Grand National 2015 Preview

Trust in Trustan - Trustan Times can hit the frame in the Scottish National again.

Just one week removed from one National we have another one to sink our teeth in to this weekend as Ayr hosts the Scottish equivalent of Aintree’s famous race.

It’s a race that sees horses that either missed the cut at Aintree, didn’t get very far over the National fences the previous week or simply bypassed the race altogether for one reason or another brought back together for a shot at some form of consolation.

That’s not to say it’s a bad race by any means as the Scottish National is always a great watch, if not one the same level as Aintree.

There’s usually a high class horse in field topping the weights as well which means that, unlike Aintree where the handicap is compressed, we can end up with several horses running from outside the handicap.

This happened last year thanks to Tidal Bay’s presence and it looks set to happen again this year with at least one, perhaps both, of Gold Cup also rans Sam Winner and Houblon Des Obeaux likely to line up.

We’re still at a stage where the shape of the final field is far from clear at present, but I can only see the selection shortening when the field is announced on Thursday so I wanted to get him backed now as he looks a definite runner.

Grand National 2015 Preview

National Express - It's Grand National time again and there's a sense of deja vu with my selections.

It’s that time of year again.

This Saturday all eyes will be on Aintree as the Grand National takes centre stage. Each year, along with the people’s race comes my runner-by-runner guide and after some relative success in recent years with a stream of placed horses, I’ll be trying to go one better and actually pick out the winner this time around.

As always it’s the most difficult race of the year of which to find the winner, as even the best handicapped of horses with all the right attributes for the race can come unstuck thanks to lady luck deserting them, but that’s why it’s the spectacle it is and why it still remains, no matter what anyone says, the greatest horse race on the planet.

The main hope once again is of course that all the stars, both human and equine, return safely and healthily following the race, but whether you’re looking for a big bet, a horse to stick a small each-way bet on or just checking whether the horse you drew in the sweepstake is any good or not hopefully you’ll find this runner-by-runner guide to the 2015 Grand National helpful.

Below you will find the competitors for Saturday’s Grand National and my take on each of their merits and chances in the world’s greatest race.

Dubai World Cup Night Preview 2015

Golden Harp - Japanese superstar Harp Star can win the Sheema Classic.

It’s hard to believe that Cheltenham was only just over two short weeks ago but the greatest show on turf is going to feel like even more of a distant memory this weekend as the flat returns in earnest.

Around this time of year I always like to put up a few selections for a great day of racing at Meydan as the world’s richest race takes centre stage.

This year’s World Cup though does little for me in terms of punting because the horse I really want to back California Chrome is extremely short in the betting now.

Having landed a nice touch on ‘the people’s horse’ in the Kentucky Derby last year I became a fully fledged ‘Chromie’ and in spite of all the controversy that followed I remain firmly in that camp and would love nothing more than to see him win the Dubai World Cup.

Festival Focus - Queen Mother Champion Chase 2015

Festival Fever - Champagne Fever can enhance his fine festival record in the Champion Chase.

With the exception of the Champion Hurdle in which realistically there’s probably only three horses that can win it – and even then I’m firmly in the Faugheen is a machine camp – the championship races at this year’s Cheltenham festival are all as wide open as I’ve ever known them.

No championship race though is perhaps more intriguing than the Champion Chase which will see the last two winners finally lock horns properly after both returning from lengthy absences.

Throw in to the mix a couple of young upstarts from the mighty Paul Nicholls as well as a horse campaigned over further this term but now dropping back to a trip he has a second to none festival record over and you have all the ingredients for an explosive showdown.

For many though the race revolves around whether Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy are still the forces of old.

Festival Focus - Arkle Trophy 2015

Smash and Grab - Smashing looks the each way call in the Arkle.

Conventional wisdom since Un De Sceaux’s romp in the Irish equivalent of this race has been that if he jumps round he wins.

Having backed Willie Mullins’ flying machine back at the start of the season it’s left me struggling with what to suggest for this race given that in an ideal world I’d be tipping Un De Sceaux, only at a much bigger price than he currently is.

Much like with Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle though I can’t bring myself to tip an odds on shot and until very recently I was struggling for an each-way alternative to recommend to the jolly.

However that has changed with the announcement that one of Un De Sceaux’s previous victims is perhaps unexpectedly now being targeted here for another crack at his old rival.

I’ll get to that in a minute though, first the favourite.

Un De Sceaux began his chasing career with a shock fall when sent off at 1/8 at Thurles, he was streaking clear that day as is his way and would almost certainly have won but for that novicey fall where he just failed to get the landing gear down in time.

Festival Focus - Champion Bumper 2015

Electric Dreams - Pylonthepressure has been impressive and is a contender in the Bumper.

With the entries finally revealed for the Champion Bumper and Bet365 having recently gone NRNB on all races at the festival the time is right to fire a couple of darts at day two’s final race.

Somewhat of a Willie Mullins benefit in recent years the Bumper is usually a very tricky race to get to the bottom of ante-post, but the two I like the look of will almost certainly start shorter than their current prices if they do line up and with the NRNB concession, if they don’t you lose nothing.

Unlike the other Festival Focus posts I won’t spend lines and lines of text evaluating each likely runner’s chances and why they will or won’t win as there are so many runners in the Bumper coming here with unblemished records made up of wide margin wins I’d be repeating the same things over and over again.

Instead I’m just going to focus on the two horses that have caught my eye for the race, because at the end of the day there’s not much tangible form to go on for the Bumper so visual impression and potential makes up a huge part of the selection process.

As one would expect Willie Mullins’ sextet dominate the market and current favourite Bordini has looked good in two starts under rules to date including winning a Listed event last time out. But it’s actually the horse behind him in the betting, for the same connections, that is my first shout for this year’s Bumper.

Festival Focus - Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2015

Grand Cranyon - Nichols Canyon looks a worthy favourite in the Neptune.

With NRNB now available with a couple of bookies on either all or most of the races at the Cheltenham festival the Neptune can now be looked at with a bit more confidence having been a race that had, and still has for that matter, several question marks over it.

As the middle distance hurdles race for novices the Neptune is often the most difficult race to assess from a long range perspective given its interim distance.

You’re highly unlikely to see a horse tried over 2m or 3m drop back or step up to one or the other, however it is much the norm to see horses campaigned over two and a half miles to do either.

That makes the Neptune a tough race to call because there is a very good chance the race will cut up and there a number of horses prominent in the betting that look nailed on to run in one of the other two novice hurdle events.

The recent vibes though seem to suggest that classy flat recruit Nichols Canyon – currently heading the betting for the race – will indeed run here and with the NRNB concession now in effect you can back him safe in the knowledge that should there be a late twist in the tail before the start of the festival and the Mullins pack is reshuffled your bet will simply be voided.

Festival Focus - Ryanair Chase 2015

A-Ma-zing - Ma Filleule looks to have a great chance in the Ryanair.

The half way house that is the Ryanair once again looks like being the destination of choice this year for the waifs and strays that aren’t quick enough for the Champion Chase or quite capable of staying the gruelling Gold Cup trip.

However with a couple of second season chasers proving themselves high class performers over the interim distance this season, the race is far from merely just an afterthought of an event for those not capable of cutting it in the championship contests.

With Al Ferof and Dynaste now out of the festival and Champagne Fever seemingly aiming at the Champion Chase the top of the market for this year’s Ryanair now has a very different complexion to a few weeks back.

The reformed Don Cossack rightfully sits at the head of the betting, as he has for much of the season having finally fulfilled the potential we all knew he had.

He’s won four Graded races this season including the Grade 1 John Durkan and has looked impressive each time in doing so.

Grand National Weights 2015

Another National Re-id - 2014 victor Pineau De Re has been alotted 11st

The weights for this year's Crabbies Grand National were revealed this lunch time in London.

Below is the full list for all ninety-six horses still engaged at this point, though looking towards the top of the list there appears to be several high profile horses unlikely to run.

Prior to the weights the horses I was interested in were Spring Heeled, Across The Bay and Saint Are and all three have done well enough that they should get a run off a decent weight. 

There are few major shocks with most horses running off their current marks anyway though some of the big guns at the top benefit from the compression of the weights should they run.

Festival Focus - Champion Hurdle 2015

C-Irv Ball - Irving is my speculative outside bet to sneak a place in Tuesday's feature.

This year’s Champion Hurdle and Arkle currently leave me in somewhat of a quandary, because having backed the two now short-priced favourites for both races a while back and got something actually resembling a decent(ish) price I want to tip both for each respective race but I can’t bring myself to tip even money and odds on shots in Cheltenham festival races.

I truly believe that Faugheen and Un De Sceaux will both win on the opening day and in the process create yet another ‘Ruby Tuesday’ but with their prices both long gone the task now is finding some semblance of value left in both races so as not to come across like one of the many ‘boom merchants’ you find on Twitter these days celebrating ‘tipping’ a horse that is odds on.

The obvious value call in the Champion Hurdle is Jezki each-way at 6/1 as the big three look like being tough to keep out of the places. It seems lazy to simply go for that easy option though even if a seemingly easy return is usually desperately needed during Cheltenham week!

Beaten three times by Hurricane Fly this season Jezki was even beaten for second by Arctic Fire last time out, throwing an element of doubt on the big three will be the 1-2-3 argument mentioned above.

He did make a pretty serious blunder at the last flight that day though and his season has charted a similar course to last year when he of course claimed glory in this race.

I do think he’ll be seen to better effect at the festival, but I’m greedy and an eternal optimist so I’m going to look for a horse at a bigger price that could capitalise should one of the big three not fire and miss the frame.

Festival Focus – RSA Chase 2015

On Top At The Pols - Don Poli can stay on for glory in the RSA.

This year’s RSA picture is muddied by the fact that the two horses at the head of the market at present could both run in different races at the festival.

After Coneygree’s impressive romp at the weekend – and given what an open (read, terrible) renewal of the race it looks – I’d say connections will now go for the Gold Cup with him.

Don Poli on the other hand has long been touted for the four-miler but I for one cannot see Willie Mullins not running his best staying novice in the RSA, regardless of whether that means son Patrick will get to ride him in the amateur event.

I’ve been keen on Don Poli all season – he was one of my horses to follow this season – and he’s done nothing to dampen that enthusiasm in his two chase starts to date, including when winning a good renewal of the Topaz (a solid RSA trial) at Leopardstown over Christmas, the form of which was franked at the weekend by Apache Stronghold.

With Valseur Lido looking more like a horse for which the intermediate trip will be more his bag, Gigginstown don’t really have another representative for the RSA, whereas for the four-miler they have a readymade alternative in Wounded Warrior and could also run Thunder and Roses and Very Wood.

Festival Focus - Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2015

Back The Jolly - Jollyallan looks a good bet in the opener.

Given what a favourite’s graveyard the Cheltenham festival opener is there’s always value to be had in taking on a short-priced favourite in the Supreme.

Vautour went some way to making amends for several beaten favourites over the last few years when running away with this race twelve months ago and his stable mate Douvan will attempt to do so again twelve months on for the same connections.

However with the market looking well and truly at sea for the race that is always accompanied by the famous ‘Cheltenham roar’ with the exception of the top two in the betting there is definitely some value to be had elsewhere in the market. 

Following the sad loss of Allez Colombieres, Douvan has established himself as the leading contender of the platoon Willie Mullins could run here. He’s won both starts in emphatic style including the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer on his most recent start.

He’s done all that’s been asked of him and done so in a manner that suggests there’s more to come when he is finally properly tested, as he should be at Cheltenham.

Festival Focus - Triumph Hurdle 2015

Hargam-ble - Hargam looks the best bet to take on his dominant stable mate in the Triumph.

Friday’s opener – the Triumph Hurdle – is a notoriously difficult puzzle to solve from a long range perspective given that historically some of the leading protagonists often still haven’t laid down their marker for the race even at this stage of the season, just five weeks from the start of the festival.

The race however has been an uncharacteristic success for the Festival Focus series having recommended the last two winners Our Conor and Tiger Roll.

Both years it was a race set to take place this coming weekend that convinced me of their Triumph Hurdle credentials so it may seem strange to be offering up a selection in the week leading up to the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown.

Unlike most years where the Triumph is a race where the picture in my head does not become clear until quite close to festival week though this year I’ve had a horse in mind for the race from very early on in the campaign.

Festival Focus – Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Gold Cup Des-tiny - Houblon Des Obeaux looks hugely overpriced in the big one.

Anyone that loves horse racing will tell you that there are no small races at the Cheltenham festival – not even the Cross Country – but the one festival race that rightly stands out as the showpiece of the week is the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

We’ve been treated to some thrilling moments over the years in this great contest, including last year’s bizarre, but no less heart-pounding, finish.

This year’s running of the Gold Cup is one of the most open looking renewals of the race in living memory and thus there are some pretty tasty prices floating around.

Since mid-November the market has correctly revolved around Silviniaco Conti following his impressive victories in the Betfair Chase and the King George.

He is without question the best staying chaser in training and he looks a very worthy favourite on paper.

Festival Focus - Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 2015

Time For Heroes - No More Heroes can land the Albert Bartlett on his way to superstardom.

Gigginstown House Stud have a wealth of novice hurdling talent this season, perhaps to even rival and maybe surpass that of the Riccis.

Some of these star names however have suffered shock reverses already this campaign, with the likes of Milsean and Tell Us More tasting defeat at skinny prices and thus being labelled as having failed to live up to the hype.

However one Gigginstown novice hurdler has so far this season actually exceeded the lofty expectations that we had for him this campaign and although he is now much shorter than when he was flagged up as one of my ten to follow this season he still looks a good price to me for a race that has been a showcase for top chasers to be to strut their stuff in.

And make no mistake, No More Heroes will be a top chaser – possibly even a Gold Cup winner in time – but for now over the smaller obstacles he will aim to emulate the likes of Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty by landing this on the way to Grade 1 success over fences.

Festival Focus - World Hurdle 2015

Tout Infinity and Beyond - Un Temps Pour Tout can justify the hype in the World Hurdle.

It could look like there’s an element of stealing other people’s tips here given that two tipsters that I have a lot of time for have also put up the same horse that I’m about to for the World Hurdle as well in recent days.

However a look back at my ten to follow post for this national hunt season from last September will show that even back then I was weighing up this horse for the top contests over hurdles this term.

I am of course talking about David Pipe’s expensive French import Un Temps Pout Tout.

Not yet seen this season, Pipe recently announced that he is set to reappear in the Cleeve Hurdle next Saturday with a World Hurdle tilt the aim.

As such, in a wide open looking renewal of the staying contest now looks the time to back him, as a good run – and he does go well fresh – in the Cleeve will surely see his price come in further.

A stand out 20/1 at the moment with Ladbrokes (although they aren’t NRNB at present, but the risk looks worth it) the Pond House inmate built on his high class French form with three good efforts last season after making the switch to Pipe for an astronomical fee.

Festival Focus – Mares Hurdle 2015

Keep Calm and Carrig On - Carrigmoorna Rock looks a place alternative to the hot favourite

The Mares Hurdle this year once again revolves around a Willie Mullins super mare, but with six time winner Quevega now enjoying retirement a new name is finally set to be added to the roll of honour and if Annie Power makes it to the race then she will more than likely emulate her former stable mate by claiming victory in the Mares Hurdle.

Whether or not last year’s World Hurdle runner up will line-up though remains up in the air, although Mullins has only today issued a bulletin that she is back riding out and the Mares Hurdle is indeed the intended festival target.

Even coming off an absence of what will be almost ten months she would be nigh on unbeatable if she turns up, but her price of course reflects this. Mullins proved with Quevega that he can bring a mare back from a long lay-off to run away with this race so that isn’t really a concern and the fact she’s still only tasted defeat once under rules should rate her as almost as much of a banker as Quevega has been for the last half decade or so.

Therefore the value call at this stage is to look for an each-way alternative that can bring a nice return simply by chasing home the Mullins superstar or perhaps land the spoils should Annie Power not make Cheltenham.

Festival Focus - JLT Novices' Chase 2015

Got My Vaut - If last year's Supreme winner takes his chance he'll be tough to beat in the JLT

With less than eight weeks to go now until the greatest show on turf it’s time to kick off this year’s festival focus series, and it’s the opener of Thursday’s card that has me pulling the trigger on the first ante-post advice of the year.

Rather surprisingly given how fearful the bookies usually are of the Willie Mullins battalions from a long range perspective, the horse I’m interested in here has actually lost his position at the head of the market with some firms in recent weeks.

The reason for this is two-fold, one, because as is always the case this time of year, the uncertainty over where Mullins will aim his most deadly weapons still reigns supreme and his big guns could be rerouted at any time between now and the tapes rising the second week in March, and the second is the crushing bump he took on Boxing Day in the Racing Post Novice Chase which resulted in a remarkable defeat to Clarcam.

I am of course talking about last year’s Supreme winner Vautour.