Festival Focus - Queen Mother Champion Chase 2015

Festival Fever - Champagne Fever can enhance his fine festival record in the Champion Chase.

With the exception of the Champion Hurdle in which realistically there’s probably only three horses that can win it – and even then I’m firmly in the Faugheen is a machine camp – the championship races at this year’s Cheltenham festival are all as wide open as I’ve ever known them.

No championship race though is perhaps more intriguing than the Champion Chase which will see the last two winners finally lock horns properly after both returning from lengthy absences.

Throw in to the mix a couple of young upstarts from the mighty Paul Nicholls as well as a horse campaigned over further this term but now dropping back to a trip he has a second to none festival record over and you have all the ingredients for an explosive showdown.

For many though the race revolves around whether Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy are still the forces of old.

Festival Focus - Arkle Trophy 2015

Smash and Grab - Smashing looks the each way call in the Arkle.

Conventional wisdom since Un De Sceaux’s romp in the Irish equivalent of this race has been that if he jumps round he wins.

Having backed Willie Mullins’ flying machine back at the start of the season it’s left me struggling with what to suggest for this race given that in an ideal world I’d be tipping Un De Sceaux, only at a much bigger price than he currently is.

Much like with Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle though I can’t bring myself to tip an odds on shot and until very recently I was struggling for an each-way alternative to recommend to the jolly.

However that has changed with the announcement that one of Un De Sceaux’s previous victims is perhaps unexpectedly now being targeted here for another crack at his old rival.

I’ll get to that in a minute though, first the favourite.

Un De Sceaux began his chasing career with a shock fall when sent off at 1/8 at Thurles, he was streaking clear that day as is his way and would almost certainly have won but for that novicey fall where he just failed to get the landing gear down in time.

Festival Focus - Champion Bumper 2015

Electric Dreams - Pylonthepressure has been impressive and is a contender in the Bumper.

With the entries finally revealed for the Champion Bumper and Bet365 having recently gone NRNB on all races at the festival the time is right to fire a couple of darts at day two’s final race.

Somewhat of a Willie Mullins benefit in recent years the Bumper is usually a very tricky race to get to the bottom of ante-post, but the two I like the look of will almost certainly start shorter than their current prices if they do line up and with the NRNB concession, if they don’t you lose nothing.

Unlike the other Festival Focus posts I won’t spend lines and lines of text evaluating each likely runner’s chances and why they will or won’t win as there are so many runners in the Bumper coming here with unblemished records made up of wide margin wins I’d be repeating the same things over and over again.

Instead I’m just going to focus on the two horses that have caught my eye for the race, because at the end of the day there’s not much tangible form to go on for the Bumper so visual impression and potential makes up a huge part of the selection process.

As one would expect Willie Mullins’ sextet dominate the market and current favourite Bordini has looked good in two starts under rules to date including winning a Listed event last time out. But it’s actually the horse behind him in the betting, for the same connections, that is my first shout for this year’s Bumper.

Festival Focus - Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2015

Grand Cranyon - Nichols Canyon looks a worthy favourite in the Neptune.

With NRNB now available with a couple of bookies on either all or most of the races at the Cheltenham festival the Neptune can now be looked at with a bit more confidence having been a race that had, and still has for that matter, several question marks over it.

As the middle distance hurdles race for novices the Neptune is often the most difficult race to assess from a long range perspective given its interim distance.

You’re highly unlikely to see a horse tried over 2m or 3m drop back or step up to one or the other, however it is much the norm to see horses campaigned over two and a half miles to do either.

That makes the Neptune a tough race to call because there is a very good chance the race will cut up and there a number of horses prominent in the betting that look nailed on to run in one of the other two novice hurdle events.

The recent vibes though seem to suggest that classy flat recruit Nichols Canyon – currently heading the betting for the race – will indeed run here and with the NRNB concession now in effect you can back him safe in the knowledge that should there be a late twist in the tail before the start of the festival and the Mullins pack is reshuffled your bet will simply be voided.

Festival Focus - Ryanair Chase 2015

A-Ma-zing - Ma Filleule looks to have a great chance in the Ryanair.

The half way house that is the Ryanair once again looks like being the destination of choice this year for the waifs and strays that aren’t quick enough for the Champion Chase or quite capable of staying the gruelling Gold Cup trip.

However with a couple of second season chasers proving themselves high class performers over the interim distance this season, the race is far from merely just an afterthought of an event for those not capable of cutting it in the championship contests.

With Al Ferof and Dynaste now out of the festival and Champagne Fever seemingly aiming at the Champion Chase the top of the market for this year’s Ryanair now has a very different complexion to a few weeks back.

The reformed Don Cossack rightfully sits at the head of the betting, as he has for much of the season having finally fulfilled the potential we all knew he had.

He’s won four Graded races this season including the Grade 1 John Durkan and has looked impressive each time in doing so.

Grand National Weights 2015

Another National Re-id - 2014 victor Pineau De Re has been alotted 11st

The weights for this year's Crabbies Grand National were revealed this lunch time in London.

Below is the full list for all ninety-six horses still engaged at this point, though looking towards the top of the list there appears to be several high profile horses unlikely to run.

Prior to the weights the horses I was interested in were Spring Heeled, Across The Bay and Saint Are and all three have done well enough that they should get a run off a decent weight. 

There are few major shocks with most horses running off their current marks anyway though some of the big guns at the top benefit from the compression of the weights should they run.

Festival Focus - Champion Hurdle 2015

C-Irv Ball - Irving is my speculative outside bet to sneak a place in Tuesday's feature.

This year’s Champion Hurdle and Arkle currently leave me in somewhat of a quandary, because having backed the two now short-priced favourites for both races a while back and got something actually resembling a decent(ish) price I want to tip both for each respective race but I can’t bring myself to tip even money and odds on shots in Cheltenham festival races.

I truly believe that Faugheen and Un De Sceaux will both win on the opening day and in the process create yet another ‘Ruby Tuesday’ but with their prices both long gone the task now is finding some semblance of value left in both races so as not to come across like one of the many ‘boom merchants’ you find on Twitter these days celebrating ‘tipping’ a horse that is odds on.

The obvious value call in the Champion Hurdle is Jezki each-way at 6/1 as the big three look like being tough to keep out of the places. It seems lazy to simply go for that easy option though even if a seemingly easy return is usually desperately needed during Cheltenham week!

Beaten three times by Hurricane Fly this season Jezki was even beaten for second by Arctic Fire last time out, throwing an element of doubt on the big three will be the 1-2-3 argument mentioned above.

He did make a pretty serious blunder at the last flight that day though and his season has charted a similar course to last year when he of course claimed glory in this race.

I do think he’ll be seen to better effect at the festival, but I’m greedy and an eternal optimist so I’m going to look for a horse at a bigger price that could capitalise should one of the big three not fire and miss the frame.

Festival Focus – RSA Chase 2015

On Top At The Pols - Don Poli can stay on for glory in the RSA.

This year’s RSA picture is muddied by the fact that the two horses at the head of the market at present could both run in different races at the festival.

After Coneygree’s impressive romp at the weekend – and given what an open (read, terrible) renewal of the race it looks – I’d say connections will now go for the Gold Cup with him.

Don Poli on the other hand has long been touted for the four-miler but I for one cannot see Willie Mullins not running his best staying novice in the RSA, regardless of whether that means son Patrick will get to ride him in the amateur event.

I’ve been keen on Don Poli all season – he was one of my horses to follow this season – and he’s done nothing to dampen that enthusiasm in his two chase starts to date, including when winning a good renewal of the Topaz (a solid RSA trial) at Leopardstown over Christmas, the form of which was franked at the weekend by Apache Stronghold.

With Valseur Lido looking more like a horse for which the intermediate trip will be more his bag, Gigginstown don’t really have another representative for the RSA, whereas for the four-miler they have a readymade alternative in Wounded Warrior and could also run Thunder and Roses and Very Wood.

Festival Focus - Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2015

Back The Jolly - Jollyallan looks a good bet in the opener.

Given what a favourite’s graveyard the Cheltenham festival opener is there’s always value to be had in taking on a short-priced favourite in the Supreme.

Vautour went some way to making amends for several beaten favourites over the last few years when running away with this race twelve months ago and his stable mate Douvan will attempt to do so again twelve months on for the same connections.

However with the market looking well and truly at sea for the race that is always accompanied by the famous ‘Cheltenham roar’ with the exception of the top two in the betting there is definitely some value to be had elsewhere in the market. 

Following the sad loss of Allez Colombieres, Douvan has established himself as the leading contender of the platoon Willie Mullins could run here. He’s won both starts in emphatic style including the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer on his most recent start.

He’s done all that’s been asked of him and done so in a manner that suggests there’s more to come when he is finally properly tested, as he should be at Cheltenham.

Festival Focus - Triumph Hurdle 2015

Hargam-ble - Hargam looks the best bet to take on his dominant stable mate in the Triumph.

Friday’s opener – the Triumph Hurdle – is a notoriously difficult puzzle to solve from a long range perspective given that historically some of the leading protagonists often still haven’t laid down their marker for the race even at this stage of the season, just five weeks from the start of the festival.

The race however has been an uncharacteristic success for the Festival Focus series having recommended the last two winners Our Conor and Tiger Roll.

Both years it was a race set to take place this coming weekend that convinced me of their Triumph Hurdle credentials so it may seem strange to be offering up a selection in the week leading up to the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown.

Unlike most years where the Triumph is a race where the picture in my head does not become clear until quite close to festival week though this year I’ve had a horse in mind for the race from very early on in the campaign.