Grand National 2016 Preview

Cloudy With a Chance Again - Many Clouds has a great chance of making history.

This Saturday the greatest show on turf will once again make its annual assault on the consciousness of the general public as the world’s greatest horse race the Grand National takes place at Aintree.

As has become tradition I’ve spent the last couple of weeks compiling a runner-by-runner guide for the big race, assessing each of the combatant’s chances of securing their place in history and winning the Grand National.

I’ve also highlighted a few of the horses I’ll be backing for the race so whether you’re after a tip, want to see if the horse your pin landed in or you got in the work sweep has any actual chance or just want to pick out a horse with a name that means something to you this is the guide for you!

The National remains a controversial race and sadly probably always will, and there will surely be the usual propaganda and out-of-context facts trotted out by it’s detractors, but the race remains the one time each year that horse racing captures the imagination of the wider public like it never can for the other 364 days of the year and as such should be celebrated for the incredible day it is.

It’s a great spectacle and statistically a much safer, and thus enjoyable, one since the modifications and hopefully that will remain the case this year as forty horses give their all as they tackle thirty unique obstacles in the greatest test of equine ability and jockeyship this great sport of ours has to offer.

So sit back, relax (and perhaps grab yourself a drink as this might take a while) as the field for the 2016 Grand National are put under the microscope.

Foxhunters Chase 2016 - Festival Focus

Fringe Benefit - On The Fringe can repeat his win in the Foxhunters.

If there’s one race at this year’s festival that’s got everyone talking it’s the Foxhunters.

Whether you agree or not with the Victoria Pendleton media circus there’s no denying it’s created some serious interest in a race that usually kind of gets lost in the aftermath of the Gold Cup.

Whatever happens with our former Olympian, hopefully the added interest in the race will lead to some well earned plaudits for another female rider taking her chance – the phenomenal Nina Carberry, who will once again take the ride aboard last year’s winner On The Fringe.

Not only did Enda Bolger’s eleven-year-old land the Cheltenham amateur riders’ event twelve months ago, he also took down the Aintree and Punchestown equivalents, landing a rare festival treble.

Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

King of the Hill - Yorkhill should be Neptune bound and would be a danger if he was.

The Grade 1 races I’m yet to cover for this year’s Festival Focus have all been absent thus far as they all have short-priced favourites that I can’t really see beyond, but couldn’t put up at the price they are.

Douvan in the Arkle, Vroum Vroum Mag in the Mares, Un De Sceaux in the Champion Chase and Yanworth here in the Neptune are all the most likely winners but are currently priced as such.

However in opposition to Yanworth could potentially be a horse I like very much, though if market vibes are anything to go by he’s actually more likely to go for the Supreme a day earlier which I think is a mistake, but what do I know!?

On the off chance that sense wins out in the end though I’m going to tentatively, and likely completely pointlessly, put up Yorkhill for the Neptune as with NRNB widely available now nothing is lost, other than the time writing this, if he does in fact take in the shorter option, and in my opinion the option he’s less likely to place in, twenty four hours earlier.

National Hunt Chase 2016 - Festival Focus

Battle Royale - Southfield Royale is fancied in the 4-miler.

The National Hunt Chase or the 4-miler as it is more colloquially known was the first race I put a bet up for at this year’s Cheltenham Festival back at the start of the season when I posted my Ten To Follow for this jumps season and suggested Milsean was made for the race.

Well here we are just a week before the race and Milsean has not made an appearance this season having met with a set back and thus will not be lining up a week on Tuesday.

As a result I need to revisit the race and with the market thrown somewhat in to disarray of late with the news that long time favourite Black Hercules could be rerouted to a shorter trip and that crack, and in-demand, amateur Derek O’Connor has jumped off Colin Tizzard’s plodder extraordinaire Native River to ride new favourite and constant source of frustration Minella Rocco.

Roi Des Francs, also a mainstay a head of the market this season, is also reportedly off to pastures shorter, leaving the race looking there for the taking.

Champion Bumper 2016 - Festival Focus

High Times - High Bridge can break the Ferguson festival duck in the Bumper.

I’ve seen a few people say that this year’s Champion Bumper doesn’t look a vintage renewal, but it’s one of the races I’m looking forward to most all week at Cheltenham.

This could be because I’ve made a conscious effort this year to get more plugged in to the Bumper scene both sides of the Irish Sea, but whichever way you look at the race you can’t deny there are some exciting prospects set to line up.

Several Bumper horses have caught the eye over the course of the season and rightfully they are at the head of the market – Ballyandy in particular looks an ideal sort for the race on the back of two Listed wins and should be there or thereabouts.

While Augusta Kate, if she were to line up, could go off very short indeed given her connections and how visually impressive she’s been to date this season.

She’s by no means a certainty to line up though nor are any of the Gigginstown horses after they broke their self-imposed embargo on the race last year and then instantly wished they hadn’t.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 2016 – Festival Focus

Gangster's Paradise - Gangster looks a big contender in the Albert Bartlett.

With Barters Hill the prominent figure in the Albert Bartlett market there are some big prices to be had on some talented horses if you look further down the betting.

Ben Pauling’s horse has carried all before him this season but he is never flashy and this has led some to question his merits as favourite for the novice stayers’ hurdle.

He should prove very tough to pass, but he is ample short enough in the betting and as a result I like the look of a Willie Mullins horse to finally break the all-conquering trainer’s duck in this race.

Gangster has quietly crept up the betting over the last few weeks without actually doing anything, largely due to other leading protagonists for this race fluffing their lines, but this half brother to Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite To Passage looks to have a good shout in an open race.

JLT Novices' Chase 2016 - Festival Focus

Mai Time - The impressive Bristol De Mai can land the JLT.

Last year’s JLT served up one of the performances of the festival when Vautour slammed his rivals in scintillating style, and this year’s renewal of the novice chase at the intermediate distance had tantalisingly offered the prospect of another Willie Mullins star potentially lighting up Prestbury Park in Thursday’s opener.

Sadly though following his scarcely believable recovery to get back up and win after what ordinarily would have been a race-ending blunder at the last at Leopardstown Killultagh Vic has been ruled out of Cheltenham through injury.

In his place the consistently improving Bristol De Mai has taken favouritism and although with many running scared of Douvan in the Arkle this year’s race could be one of the strongest in a good few years, Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse looks the rightful market leader at this point and I have no real desire to look elsewhere in the race given he looks a perfectly backable price at 7/2.

This race has been confirmed as his festival target by connections, in spite of an entry in the RSA, and his three wins over middle distances by a combined 45 lengths in winter ground would suggest he will have no trouble getting up that infamous hill.

Champion Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

Nic a Place - Nichols Canyon looks good value to chase home Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle.

With Faugheen’s utter dominance of the Champion Hurdle market there isn’t really an angle in to the race other than trying to find the horses that are going to fill the places in behind him.

The reigning champ looks so far clear of the remainder of the likely field that it almost seems pointless running the race at this point. This is horse racing, and more specifically Cheltenham, though and anything can, and often will, happen.

The only real play I can see in the Champion Hurdle as things stand therefore is to back the horse that spectacularly beat Faugheen at the beginning of the campaign Nichols Canyon, because following his comprehensive defeat to the horse dubbed ‘the machine’ last time out he has drifted out to pretty fair price to pick up the minor honours behind his stable mate.

Many heralded his victory over Faugheen as a fluke and subsequent events have probably proven that to be true, but there’s no denying he’s a top class performer in his own right – his string of Grade 1 wins are testament to that.

Triumph Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

Victory Dance - Let's Dance taken to Triumph in Friday's opener.

The Triumph Hurdle is usually one of the more difficult races to approach ante-post at the Cheltenham festival, but with this year’s renewal looking the widest open of all the major races there is plenty of value to be had.

Last Saturday’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown quite often has a major bearing on the Triumph Hurdle market and this year is no exception as hot favourite Ivanovich Gorbatov was well and truly put in his place at the weekend.

It’s easy to say now, but he had looked woefully short for both based on what he had achieved to that point and the subsequent drift for the Triumph following Saturday’s comprehensive defeat sees his price more in line with where it should have been all along, though still remains too short in my humble opinion.

Other than the Aidan O’Brien trained favourite, Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Alan King have the top of the market sewn up for the juvenile feature. Alan King in particular looks to have a particularly strong hand with Sceau Royal looking the pick of his squadron to me, he is very slick over his obstacles and has impressed thus far, but he is now half the price of the other horse I like for this race so is bypassed on value grounds.

Horses have tasted defeat in the Spring Juvenile and gone on to win the Triumph – most recently Tiger Roll two years ago – and I fancy that could be the case again this year and I’m not talking about the favourite.

Gold Cup 2016 – Festival Focus

Poli Express - Don Poli can enhance his Festival record to 3 out of 3 by winning the big one.

This year’s Gold Cup has been billed as one of the best in recent years and whilst a great race is surely in prospect, it is difficult to suggest a winner beyond the first six or so horses in the betting, indicating that perhaps this year’s race won’t be the deep, deep contest many had suggested.

As such, with the clutch of horses one can argue could win the race numbering but a few, there look to be some very solid place claims at the head of the market and with there still no out and out clear favourite there looks to be some boring – but sensible – each way bets to nothing or a small profit to be had, none more so than the selection.

Rather than go through why the other six or seven ‘big guns’ can and can’t win the race, as there are legitimate question marks hanging over all the main protagonists, I’ll focus on why the horse I think will win can land the festival blue riband.

In the wake of last year’s RSA I pegged Don Poli as a Gold Cup winner in waiting and backed him to ascend to such heights this season accordingly. 

RSA Chase 2016 - Festival Focus

We Could Be Heroes - Bryan Cooper and No More Heroes can land the RSA.

In spite of the fact that generally speaking the thought is that the RSA is a slog of real attrition that can rip the guts out of a horse, in recent years we’ve seen the classiest sorts in the race rise to the top.

With what we’ve seen to date this season only two horses set for the race look genuine top class staying chase prospects, with the remainder of the market made up of strong staying sorts who would want the relentless test of stamina the RSA is often billed as but doesn’t always transpire to be.

No More Heroes and More Of That look well clear of the remainder that are likely to take up their engagement in the race, and although Jonjo O’Neill’s former World Hurdle winner is the bigger price it is Gordon Elliot’s charge that appeals most for the novice staying chase event.

I’ve thought of No More Heroes as a future Gold Cup winner since his Bumper days and his novice chase campaign to date has done nothing but strengthen those thoughts.

He was a good novice hurdler last season and while he looked every inch a chaser killing time until his destiny called, he still managed an unlucky third in last year’s war of an Albert Bartlett.

World Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

Rheu of Light - Last year's runner-up looks a good each way bet in the World Hurdle.

With the Cleeve Hurdle taking place tomorrow featuring two of the top five in the betting for the World Hurdle, the market for Thursday’s festival feature is due for a shake up before close of business on Saturday.

As such I want to get a horse on side for that race now in case one, or both, of the big two of Thistlecrack and Camping Ground fluff their lines in the Cleeve.

The horse in question is last year’s runner-up Saphir Du Rheu, currently available at 20/1 best price or 16/1 with the Non Runner No Bet concession. A big price if you ask me, though I can see the reasoning behind why he’s currently so long in the betting.

I don’t necessarily agree with the decision of connections to revert back to hurdles after what I thought was a perfectly good run under a welter burden in the Hennessy, but in the aftermath of that decision he was under half his current price for the World Hurdle.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

Air Raid - Buveur D'Air looks the play to take on Min with in the opener.

It’s that time of year again, as the countdown to the Cheltenham Festival begins in earnest.

Therefore it’s also the time for a look ahead to the greatest week of the year in my Festival Focus posts.

Sadly, time constraints are likely going to prevent me going as in depth as years past this time around but after a good, and at times unlucky, festival year I’m hopeful of picking out plenty of winners at what will hopefully be some decent prices.

With Willie Mullins set to dominate the opening day of the festival (as he also did last year) it’s tough to be massively confident in tipping anything else in the feature races on day one and the best chance of finding a big-priced winner is likely going to come in the handicaps.

However of the day one hotpots I don’t think there’s anyone out there who would argue that Min in the opener is the potential weak leg of the big 4-fold.

King George 2015 Preview

Conti-nued Dominance? - Don't Give up on Silviniaco Conti before the King George.

This year’s King George is shaping up to be one for the ages.

If the likely protagonists all do in fact turn up at Kempton on Boxing Day we could be in for one of the best renewals in recent memory (insert your own Christmas pun here).

The common consensus at the moment seems to be that are witnessing the dawning of another era of chasing superstars. I was only just getting in to racing when Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded et al were at their peak and it was kind of lost on me at the time just how lucky we were to have so many shining lights at the top of their game at the same time.

We’ve not exactly been starved of talent since, but the last twelve months or so has seen a huge influx of potential superstars to the chasing game and although we’ve yet to get that big showdown where all their paths cross, the King George could be just that, and as a result there is definitely some serious value in the ante-post market at present.

Jumps Ten To Follow – 2015-2016

Run of the Mil - Milsean (left) features in my Ten To Follow and is an early fancy for the NH Chase.

It’s that magical time of year again as the National Hunt season proper edges tantalisingly closer by the day.

That flat turf season has once again had its moments over the sorry excuse for a summer we’ve endured, but the excitement that comes with the return of jumps stars past, present and future simply cannot be rivalled.

As always around this time of year I like to highlight some horses to look out for over the winter months in a blatant rip-off of the popular Ten To Follow format.

We all know about the big guns likely to be making headlines over the coming months – Faugheen, Un De Sceaux, Vautour et al (what an embarrassment of riches Willie Mullins truly has) but what about some potential greats that could make an even bigger name for themselves this season?

We’re hardly talking curveballs here but we’re trying to stay away from the blindingly obvious and flag up horses that will hopefully build on promise already shown and go on to establish themselves in the upper echelons of the British and Irish National Hunt hierarchy.

So without further waffle from me, here is my Jumps Ten To Follow for 2015-2016:

Top 5 Kauto Star Races

King - The legendary Kauto Star will never be forgotten.

This post was originally published in 2012, but given the devastating news that broke this morning that Kauto Star had been put down, I wanted to celebrate the incredible career he enjoyed until his retirement two and a half years ago.

It still hasn't properly sunk in that he's gone and it probably won't for some time. This horse is the reason I'm a horse racing fan - his career taking off coinciding almost perfectly with my interest in the sport sparking, and he brought so much joy to me and his legions of fans.

The true embodiment of the term 'the people's horse', no other equine star could put you through such a range of emotions as King Kauto. He was the most precociously talented jumps horse I've had the pleasure of seeing and he enjoyed a career at the top of the game that may never be emulated again.

Whether he was the greatest of all time is an argument that realistically you can never truly settle, but he is certainly the greatest of my lifetime and his accomplishments and contribution to horse racing and sport in general will live long in the memory and never be forgotten.

In tribute to the life of the brilliant Kauto Star - once again his top five race course performances... 

The Derby 2015 Preview

Jack the Lad - Jack Hobbs looks the value alternative to the favourite in the Derby.

Unlike the Oaks, the Derby has a strong favourite taking a big chunk out of the market meaning there are some bigger prices about some of the leading contenders as things stand.

As impressed as I was with Golden Horn’s Dante win, at a general 7/4 and given his owner-breeder’s fears over his stamina you simply have to try and take him on and be prepared to look foolish in doing so if his undoubted class is enough to get him home in front or if he in fact does stay and all this speculation is proved unfounded.

That said, it’s easier said than done to find an alternative with question marks hanging over so many of the field for one reason or another.

Prior to the Chester Vase I had a daft each-way bet on Hans Holbein at a ridiculous price which given how many of the other Coolmore battalion have failed to make it to the race or even impress on their way to it in the case of some of the survivors no longer seems that daft.

The Oaks 2015 Preview

Crystal Ballin' - Crystal Zvezda looks a major player in the Oaks.

It took a while to get there, but with the middle two classics of the season just days away now the markets for this year’s Derby and Oaks have finally taken shape.

The fancy prices may have disappeared now but with so much uncertainty over so many contenders in both races over the last few months playing the waiting game with Epsom 2015 has probably been a smart move.

With a short-priced favourite in the Derby there definitely looks to be some value lurking and although the Oaks looks more open, at least as far as the betting goes, I’m pretty keen on the chances of one of the main challengers.

The filly in question is Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Zvezda, an impressive winner of a Listed race at Newbury last month, the same race last year’s Oaks third Volume won en route to Epsom.

Scottish Grand National 2015 Preview

Trust in Trustan - Trustan Times can hit the frame in the Scottish National again.

Just one week removed from one National we have another one to sink our teeth in to this weekend as Ayr hosts the Scottish equivalent of Aintree’s famous race.

It’s a race that sees horses that either missed the cut at Aintree, didn’t get very far over the National fences the previous week or simply bypassed the race altogether for one reason or another brought back together for a shot at some form of consolation.

That’s not to say it’s a bad race by any means as the Scottish National is always a great watch, if not one the same level as Aintree.

There’s usually a high class horse in field topping the weights as well which means that, unlike Aintree where the handicap is compressed, we can end up with several horses running from outside the handicap.

This happened last year thanks to Tidal Bay’s presence and it looks set to happen again this year with at least one, perhaps both, of Gold Cup also rans Sam Winner and Houblon Des Obeaux likely to line up.

We’re still at a stage where the shape of the final field is far from clear at present, but I can only see the selection shortening when the field is announced on Thursday so I wanted to get him backed now as he looks a definite runner.

Grand National 2015 Preview

National Express - It's Grand National time again and there's a sense of deja vu with my selections.

It’s that time of year again.

This Saturday all eyes will be on Aintree as the Grand National takes centre stage. Each year, along with the people’s race comes my runner-by-runner guide and after some relative success in recent years with a stream of placed horses, I’ll be trying to go one better and actually pick out the winner this time around.

As always it’s the most difficult race of the year of which to find the winner, as even the best handicapped of horses with all the right attributes for the race can come unstuck thanks to lady luck deserting them, but that’s why it’s the spectacle it is and why it still remains, no matter what anyone says, the greatest horse race on the planet.

The main hope once again is of course that all the stars, both human and equine, return safely and healthily following the race, but whether you’re looking for a big bet, a horse to stick a small each-way bet on or just checking whether the horse you drew in the sweepstake is any good or not hopefully you’ll find this runner-by-runner guide to the 2015 Grand National helpful.

Below you will find the competitors for Saturday’s Grand National and my take on each of their merits and chances in the world’s greatest race.