2000 Guineas - Big Race Preview

Dawn Raid - Jim Bolger's Champion two-year-old can win the 2000 Guineas

The first English Classic of the season takes place on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile this Saturday, and as has been the case for the last three renewals of the one mile contest there is a very short priced favourite heading in to the race.

St. Nicholas Abbey failed to record victory at flat racing’s HQ in 2010 at a prohibitive price but Frankel (2011) and Camelot (2012) both landed the spoils at compressed odds.

2013 sees long time ante-post favourite for the 2000 Guineas Dawn Approach head there with a serious rival in the market in the form of Craven winner Toronado for the Richard Hannon team.

Dawn Approach was light years ahead of the two-year-old opposition he faced in 2012 and improved with each of his runs throughout the year; he remains unbeaten and has twice scored at Group 1 level.

I’ve long thought he would be very hard to beat in the Guineas and even with Toronado bursting on to the scene at a late stage that sentiment has not changed.

The Derby 2013 - Ante-post - Dawn Approach

Approach Play - Dawn Approach can step up and win the 2013 Derby like his sire

Jim Bolger showed off his stable star Dawn Approach at a press day yesterday and was reportedly extremely bullish about the three-year-old chestnut’s classic chances this season.

Red hot favourite for the 2000 Guineas there is no value in the colt’s price for the first classic of the season now, especially now he looks to have a very talented opponent to contend with in the Richard Hannon-trained Toronado.

However his price for the Derby – currently best priced 12/1 – looks particularly tempting as on breeding you would think he would get 1m4f; his sire New Approach of course having taken the Epsom spectacular in 2008.

I’ve always believed the step-up in trip could bring about further improvement in Dawn Approach and if that did transpire to be the case he could become one of the all time greats.

Bolger had originally not seemed entirely convinced that beyond a mile would be the way to go with his latest star but he now appears ready to find out.

Breeding as we all know doesn’t always pan out as you expect, so there’s no guarantee Dawn Approach will stay, but that is the peril of ante-post betting. If he wins the Guineas a week on Saturday, as he is widely expected to then you can almost bank on his price for the Derby contracting considerably.

For that reason the time seems right to back him for the Derby.

He’s not looked at the end of his tether in any of his runs to date over shorter trips, as his trainer points out he “switches off” so well and again that breeding does suggest greater trips would be within his wheelhouse. He is also a straight forward enough type that you would think he wouldn’t be too greatly put off by the pageantry of Derby day or the camber of Epsom.

There’s always a degree of banter in Racing in the build-up to big races but when Jim Bolger, a master of his craft, throws words around like “awesome” and describes a horse as the best he’s trained you have to sit up and take notice.

Dawn Approach has kept on winning and now having come out the other side of an atrocious winter in what for all intents and purposes appears to be pretty rude health the racing world, and classic glory, looks at his feet.

Recommendation:

2013 Derby – Dawn Approach 1pt win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)