Won last year by the brilliant Master Minded, this year’s renewal of the Victor Chandler doesn’t quite have that sort of star power but looks a fascinating race nonetheless and with Cheltenham looming ever nearer on the horizon, Saturday’s big race should give us some all important pointers for the Festival in eight weeks time.
As is usually the case with a race preview, where better to start than with the favourite?
Currently at the head of the market for Saturday’s feature is the Nicky Henderson-trained Finian’s Rainbow, named after the musical of the same name will victory for the horse be music to owner Michael Buckley’s ears? According to the betting the answer is yes, but is the horse too short at a best price of 15/8 at the moment?
Well fancied for last season’s Arkle when finishing second behind Captain Chris, Finian’s Rainbow has remained a picture of consistency throughout his career, never finishing outside the first three in any of his eleven races to date, eight of which he’s won.
In spite of that consistency though, the horse is prone to the odd catastrophic blunder and can be somewhat of a white knuckle ride. That said he fought back admirably in the Desert Orchid chase at Kempton at the end of December after making one of those blunders, reeling in the re-opposing Wishfull Thinking approaching the line to justify long odds on favouritism.
I wasn’t much of a Finian’s Rainbow fan for most of last season, but he won me over with a brilliant display in the Maghull at Aintree at the end of the season and the heart he showed to recover from that suicidal mistake at Kempton has only strengthened my respect for the horse.
Thus I think on his form he’s probably about the right price for a less than vintage renewal of the Victor Chandler, but the fact that he’s been handed an entry in the Gold Cup, when most considered him one of the horses to beat in the Queen Mother would suggest that connections are maybe starting to think that he now might just be starting to lack the necessary speed for the minimum trip.
One horse that definitely doesn’t have that issue at present is second favourite in the betting Al Ferof.
Trained by champion-trainer Paul Nicholls, Al Ferof is currently third favourite for this year’s Arkle and is unbeaten this season from two starts. As a novice, he’s the proverbial fly in the ointment here because we know he’s good but we don’t know just how good… yet.
Al Ferof surprised a lot of people by landing the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival last year but his two wins so far this season have been widely expected. The fact he only won by a neck last time out probably reflects why he’s bigger in the betting than I would have expected and to me that represents value because the horse that pushed him to the line in that race was For Non Stop who stays on remarkably well on the flat and as such was probably a little flattered by his proximity to this horse that day, especially given his performance in his subsequent run behind Cue Card and Walkon.
This year’s Arkle looks like being a fantastic race and if Al Ferof can pull off a win here that will only solidify those sentiments and no doubt catapult him to the head of the market. One reservation I would have about this horse would be that January on the whole is usually a quiet time for Paul Nicholls, but he did send Master Minded out to victory last year so how much can be read in to that remains to be seen.
Speaking of last year’s race, runner-up Somersby returns for another crack, this time without an out and out superstar to run in to. He gave Master Minded a hell of a scare twelve months ago and with Henrietta Knight’s horses starting to come back in to form after a very lean spell he has to be considered.
His last race, a seemingly non-staying fourth behind King Kauto in the King George, seemed to indicate that shorter distances are more his speed, but he’s spent the remainder of the season over two and a half and I’m personally not a fan of these horses that are run over differing distances, as very few have the ability to do it and remain successful – the aforementioned Kauto Star being one of them, and Kauto Star Somersby is not.
Bidding for revenge on Finian’s Rainbow for Kempton is Wishfull Thinking, who after a highly promising novice season has struggled a little this year. Wins at Aintree and Punchestown at the end of last season suggested a big season in prospect but a poor run in the Paddy Power and an absolute capitulation in the Tingle Creek were warning shots that the horse had lost his way. He bounced back to an extent in that narrow defeat at Kempton but it would take a huge step back in the right direction for him to get competitive on Saturday for me. The vibes from jockey Richard Johnson have been good though and when you look at the margin between Finian’s Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking at Kempton and the prices for Saturday, you’d have to say that this horse looks a little overpriced.
Of the remainder, most, with the exception of rank outsider I’m So Lucky, could run a big race. Gauvain impressed at Cheltenham at the start of the season before falling early on in the Tingle Creek, he atoned for that blip though when beating Somersby in the Peterborough and on that form you’d have to say he’s probably a little overpriced as well, or that Somersby is underpriced depending on your mindset.
Oiseau De Nuit chased home Finian’s Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking in the Desert Orchid and won the ultra-competitive Grand Annual at Cheltenham back in March last year, so it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise in the world if he ran on for a place here but on all known form you to have feel he’s probably going to be outclassed.
The final contender is Forpadydeplasterer, another Cheltenham festival winner, but one who developed a serious case of seconditis after that win, failing to get his head in front on every start since. In his defence he has been contesting some pretty hot races since then, but he has also been beaten in some not so hot contests and it’d take a pretty giant leap of faith to expect him to end that streak on Saturday.
So that rounds out the contenders for Saturday’s Victor Chandler chase and I think the above picture could be prophetic with Finian’s Rainbow getting the better of Wishfull Thinking, however I have a feeling that Al Ferof might just be good enough to get the better of them both come ten past three on Saturday.
Victor Chandler Chase 2012 – Best Prices
Finian’s Rainbow 15/8
Al Ferof 11/4
Somersby 6/1
Wishfull Thinking 13/2
Gauvain 8/1
Forpadydeplasterer 14/1
Oiseau De Nuit 25/1
I’m So Lucky 33/1
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