Grand National 2016 Preview

Cloudy With a Chance Again - Many Clouds has a great chance of making history.

This Saturday the greatest show on turf will once again make its annual assault on the consciousness of the general public as the world’s greatest horse race the Grand National takes place at Aintree.

As has become tradition I’ve spent the last couple of weeks compiling a runner-by-runner guide for the big race, assessing each of the combatant’s chances of securing their place in history and winning the Grand National.

I’ve also highlighted a few of the horses I’ll be backing for the race so whether you’re after a tip, want to see if the horse your pin landed in or you got in the work sweep has any actual chance or just want to pick out a horse with a name that means something to you this is the guide for you!

The National remains a controversial race and sadly probably always will, and there will surely be the usual propaganda and out-of-context facts trotted out by it’s detractors, but the race remains the one time each year that horse racing captures the imagination of the wider public like it never can for the other 364 days of the year and as such should be celebrated for the incredible day it is.

It’s a great spectacle and statistically a much safer, and thus enjoyable, one since the modifications and hopefully that will remain the case this year as forty horses give their all as they tackle thirty unique obstacles in the greatest test of equine ability and jockeyship this great sport of ours has to offer.

So sit back, relax (and perhaps grab yourself a drink as this might take a while) as the field for the 2016 Grand National are put under the microscope.

Foxhunters Chase 2016 - Festival Focus

Fringe Benefit - On The Fringe can repeat his win in the Foxhunters.

If there’s one race at this year’s festival that’s got everyone talking it’s the Foxhunters.

Whether you agree or not with the Victoria Pendleton media circus there’s no denying it’s created some serious interest in a race that usually kind of gets lost in the aftermath of the Gold Cup.

Whatever happens with our former Olympian, hopefully the added interest in the race will lead to some well earned plaudits for another female rider taking her chance – the phenomenal Nina Carberry, who will once again take the ride aboard last year’s winner On The Fringe.

Not only did Enda Bolger’s eleven-year-old land the Cheltenham amateur riders’ event twelve months ago, he also took down the Aintree and Punchestown equivalents, landing a rare festival treble.

Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

King of the Hill - Yorkhill should be Neptune bound and would be a danger if he was.

The Grade 1 races I’m yet to cover for this year’s Festival Focus have all been absent thus far as they all have short-priced favourites that I can’t really see beyond, but couldn’t put up at the price they are.

Douvan in the Arkle, Vroum Vroum Mag in the Mares, Un De Sceaux in the Champion Chase and Yanworth here in the Neptune are all the most likely winners but are currently priced as such.

However in opposition to Yanworth could potentially be a horse I like very much, though if market vibes are anything to go by he’s actually more likely to go for the Supreme a day earlier which I think is a mistake, but what do I know!?

On the off chance that sense wins out in the end though I’m going to tentatively, and likely completely pointlessly, put up Yorkhill for the Neptune as with NRNB widely available now nothing is lost, other than the time writing this, if he does in fact take in the shorter option, and in my opinion the option he’s less likely to place in, twenty four hours earlier.

National Hunt Chase 2016 - Festival Focus

Battle Royale - Southfield Royale is fancied in the 4-miler.

The National Hunt Chase or the 4-miler as it is more colloquially known was the first race I put a bet up for at this year’s Cheltenham Festival back at the start of the season when I posted my Ten To Follow for this jumps season and suggested Milsean was made for the race.

Well here we are just a week before the race and Milsean has not made an appearance this season having met with a set back and thus will not be lining up a week on Tuesday.

As a result I need to revisit the race and with the market thrown somewhat in to disarray of late with the news that long time favourite Black Hercules could be rerouted to a shorter trip and that crack, and in-demand, amateur Derek O’Connor has jumped off Colin Tizzard’s plodder extraordinaire Native River to ride new favourite and constant source of frustration Minella Rocco.

Roi Des Francs, also a mainstay a head of the market this season, is also reportedly off to pastures shorter, leaving the race looking there for the taking.

Champion Bumper 2016 - Festival Focus

High Times - High Bridge can break the Ferguson festival duck in the Bumper.

I’ve seen a few people say that this year’s Champion Bumper doesn’t look a vintage renewal, but it’s one of the races I’m looking forward to most all week at Cheltenham.

This could be because I’ve made a conscious effort this year to get more plugged in to the Bumper scene both sides of the Irish Sea, but whichever way you look at the race you can’t deny there are some exciting prospects set to line up.

Several Bumper horses have caught the eye over the course of the season and rightfully they are at the head of the market – Ballyandy in particular looks an ideal sort for the race on the back of two Listed wins and should be there or thereabouts.

While Augusta Kate, if she were to line up, could go off very short indeed given her connections and how visually impressive she’s been to date this season.

She’s by no means a certainty to line up though nor are any of the Gigginstown horses after they broke their self-imposed embargo on the race last year and then instantly wished they hadn’t.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 2016 – Festival Focus

Gangster's Paradise - Gangster looks a big contender in the Albert Bartlett.

With Barters Hill the prominent figure in the Albert Bartlett market there are some big prices to be had on some talented horses if you look further down the betting.

Ben Pauling’s horse has carried all before him this season but he is never flashy and this has led some to question his merits as favourite for the novice stayers’ hurdle.

He should prove very tough to pass, but he is ample short enough in the betting and as a result I like the look of a Willie Mullins horse to finally break the all-conquering trainer’s duck in this race.

Gangster has quietly crept up the betting over the last few weeks without actually doing anything, largely due to other leading protagonists for this race fluffing their lines, but this half brother to Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite To Passage looks to have a good shout in an open race.

JLT Novices' Chase 2016 - Festival Focus

Mai Time - The impressive Bristol De Mai can land the JLT.

Last year’s JLT served up one of the performances of the festival when Vautour slammed his rivals in scintillating style, and this year’s renewal of the novice chase at the intermediate distance had tantalisingly offered the prospect of another Willie Mullins star potentially lighting up Prestbury Park in Thursday’s opener.

Sadly though following his scarcely believable recovery to get back up and win after what ordinarily would have been a race-ending blunder at the last at Leopardstown Killultagh Vic has been ruled out of Cheltenham through injury.

In his place the consistently improving Bristol De Mai has taken favouritism and although with many running scared of Douvan in the Arkle this year’s race could be one of the strongest in a good few years, Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse looks the rightful market leader at this point and I have no real desire to look elsewhere in the race given he looks a perfectly backable price at 7/2.

This race has been confirmed as his festival target by connections, in spite of an entry in the RSA, and his three wins over middle distances by a combined 45 lengths in winter ground would suggest he will have no trouble getting up that infamous hill.

Champion Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

Nic a Place - Nichols Canyon looks good value to chase home Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle.

With Faugheen’s utter dominance of the Champion Hurdle market there isn’t really an angle in to the race other than trying to find the horses that are going to fill the places in behind him.

The reigning champ looks so far clear of the remainder of the likely field that it almost seems pointless running the race at this point. This is horse racing, and more specifically Cheltenham, though and anything can, and often will, happen.

The only real play I can see in the Champion Hurdle as things stand therefore is to back the horse that spectacularly beat Faugheen at the beginning of the campaign Nichols Canyon, because following his comprehensive defeat to the horse dubbed ‘the machine’ last time out he has drifted out to pretty fair price to pick up the minor honours behind his stable mate.

Many heralded his victory over Faugheen as a fluke and subsequent events have probably proven that to be true, but there’s no denying he’s a top class performer in his own right – his string of Grade 1 wins are testament to that.

Triumph Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

Victory Dance - Let's Dance taken to Triumph in Friday's opener.

The Triumph Hurdle is usually one of the more difficult races to approach ante-post at the Cheltenham festival, but with this year’s renewal looking the widest open of all the major races there is plenty of value to be had.

Last Saturday’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown quite often has a major bearing on the Triumph Hurdle market and this year is no exception as hot favourite Ivanovich Gorbatov was well and truly put in his place at the weekend.

It’s easy to say now, but he had looked woefully short for both based on what he had achieved to that point and the subsequent drift for the Triumph following Saturday’s comprehensive defeat sees his price more in line with where it should have been all along, though still remains too short in my humble opinion.

Other than the Aidan O’Brien trained favourite, Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Alan King have the top of the market sewn up for the juvenile feature. Alan King in particular looks to have a particularly strong hand with Sceau Royal looking the pick of his squadron to me, he is very slick over his obstacles and has impressed thus far, but he is now half the price of the other horse I like for this race so is bypassed on value grounds.

Horses have tasted defeat in the Spring Juvenile and gone on to win the Triumph – most recently Tiger Roll two years ago – and I fancy that could be the case again this year and I’m not talking about the favourite.

Gold Cup 2016 – Festival Focus

Poli Express - Don Poli can enhance his Festival record to 3 out of 3 by winning the big one.

This year’s Gold Cup has been billed as one of the best in recent years and whilst a great race is surely in prospect, it is difficult to suggest a winner beyond the first six or so horses in the betting, indicating that perhaps this year’s race won’t be the deep, deep contest many had suggested.

As such, with the clutch of horses one can argue could win the race numbering but a few, there look to be some very solid place claims at the head of the market and with there still no out and out clear favourite there looks to be some boring – but sensible – each way bets to nothing or a small profit to be had, none more so than the selection.

Rather than go through why the other six or seven ‘big guns’ can and can’t win the race, as there are legitimate question marks hanging over all the main protagonists, I’ll focus on why the horse I think will win can land the festival blue riband.

In the wake of last year’s RSA I pegged Don Poli as a Gold Cup winner in waiting and backed him to ascend to such heights this season accordingly. 

RSA Chase 2016 - Festival Focus

We Could Be Heroes - Bryan Cooper and No More Heroes can land the RSA.

In spite of the fact that generally speaking the thought is that the RSA is a slog of real attrition that can rip the guts out of a horse, in recent years we’ve seen the classiest sorts in the race rise to the top.

With what we’ve seen to date this season only two horses set for the race look genuine top class staying chase prospects, with the remainder of the market made up of strong staying sorts who would want the relentless test of stamina the RSA is often billed as but doesn’t always transpire to be.

No More Heroes and More Of That look well clear of the remainder that are likely to take up their engagement in the race, and although Jonjo O’Neill’s former World Hurdle winner is the bigger price it is Gordon Elliot’s charge that appeals most for the novice staying chase event.

I’ve thought of No More Heroes as a future Gold Cup winner since his Bumper days and his novice chase campaign to date has done nothing but strengthen those thoughts.

He was a good novice hurdler last season and while he looked every inch a chaser killing time until his destiny called, he still managed an unlucky third in last year’s war of an Albert Bartlett.

World Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

Rheu of Light - Last year's runner-up looks a good each way bet in the World Hurdle.

With the Cleeve Hurdle taking place tomorrow featuring two of the top five in the betting for the World Hurdle, the market for Thursday’s festival feature is due for a shake up before close of business on Saturday.

As such I want to get a horse on side for that race now in case one, or both, of the big two of Thistlecrack and Camping Ground fluff their lines in the Cleeve.

The horse in question is last year’s runner-up Saphir Du Rheu, currently available at 20/1 best price or 16/1 with the Non Runner No Bet concession. A big price if you ask me, though I can see the reasoning behind why he’s currently so long in the betting.

I don’t necessarily agree with the decision of connections to revert back to hurdles after what I thought was a perfectly good run under a welter burden in the Hennessy, but in the aftermath of that decision he was under half his current price for the World Hurdle.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

Air Raid - Buveur D'Air looks the play to take on Min with in the opener.

It’s that time of year again, as the countdown to the Cheltenham Festival begins in earnest.

Therefore it’s also the time for a look ahead to the greatest week of the year in my Festival Focus posts.

Sadly, time constraints are likely going to prevent me going as in depth as years past this time around but after a good, and at times unlucky, festival year I’m hopeful of picking out plenty of winners at what will hopefully be some decent prices.

With Willie Mullins set to dominate the opening day of the festival (as he also did last year) it’s tough to be massively confident in tipping anything else in the feature races on day one and the best chance of finding a big-priced winner is likely going to come in the handicaps.

However of the day one hotpots I don’t think there’s anyone out there who would argue that Min in the opener is the potential weak leg of the big 4-fold.