Festival Focus: Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Too hot to handle?
Cinders And Ashes is a leading fancy for the
Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the Cheltenham Festival’s curtain raiser and is usually accompanied by that famous roar that signals the beginning of the week’s festivities.

For the past couple of renewals we’ve had red hot favourites in Dunguib & Cue Card, both of whom have been beaten, so in that sense the race is one of the more unpredictable of the week and to make matters worse this year’s renewal looks more wide open than ever.

Al Ferof sprung what some would call a surprise last year, but if you look at him now – Timeform’s highest rated novice of the season – it is hard to imagine he was allowed to go off at the price he started at.

It just goes to show how a horse can seemingly come from nowhere in the Supreme Novices’ and go on to become a superstar and future champion.

This year’s race will surely be no different and there are already several horses entered that are being touted as the next big thing.

Currently heading the market at a best price of 9/1 is Galileo’s Choice, bidding to give Dermot Weld a winner at the Festival that has become long overdue. He won easily the other day at Fairyhouse to shorten up at the top of the betting and is a very highly rated dual purpose horse with some good form on the flat. He’s definitely got the ability to be a big player.

Another Irish raider prominent in the betting is Jessica Harrington’s Steps To Freedom who became a leading ante-post fancy for the race with victory over Prospect Wells at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting back in November. We’ve not seen the horse since and a proposed run at Dundalk has now been put off, Harrington maintains the horse is fine but it has to be a concern that we’ve not see a run for such a lengthy period of time.

Simonsig deserves a mention as he’s favourite for the race with some bookies at present but as big as 10/1 with others, mainly due to the fact that since his easy win the other day it has been suggested his target will now be the longer Neptune. If allowed to take his chance here he’s certainly a leading contender; however I’d be very reluctant to back a horse for whom plans seem so fluid until an official decision is announced.

Midnight Game represents Irish powerhouses Willie Mullins and Gigginstown Stud, he was 4th in the race stable mate Sous Le Cieux won back in December (Galileo’s Choice was 2nd) but has since come out and won twice, that if anything further boosts Galileo’s Choice’s form and you have to feel that his price is more reflective of becoming Mullins’ first string by default after Sous Les Cieux’s crushing defeat to 50/1 shot Benefficient at Leopardstown recently than anything he’s actually achieved on a race course.

The two I like against the field occupy about the same position in the betting at the moment. First Donald McCain’s Cinders And Ashes who was a solid bumper performer last season, running fifth in 2011 renewal of Festival bumper. He’s taken the step up to obstacles with aplomb though and is really slick in his jumping. A slight worry is that all his victories have been on softish ground but I think Festival form counts for a lot and at a best price of 11/1 I feel he’s a solid bet for a truly wide open race.

Also of interest to me is Trifolium, yet another Irish raider prominent in the betting and a second Gigginstown horse near the top of the market. He lost nothing in defeat when the very useful So Young accounted for him at Navan and then recorded a highly impressive victory at Punchestown last time out. Available at 14/1 with Bet365 he represents a bit of value with some very solid form already in the book going up against some much less experienced horses.

As things stand I’ll happily take the last two mentioned horses against the field, but there are still a number of other dangers lurking that haven’t even been touched on here.

Charlie Longsdon’s Vulcanite, the unbeaten Darlan, Colour Squadron, so impressive before hanging badly in the Tolworth, Montbazon one of several useful novices from the Alan King yard, Tetlami and Dildar – whose flat form is impressive and he can make good use of his speed from that discipline – are just some of the other names to consider in what looks a ridiculously tough to call opener at this year’s Festival.

Selected Best Odds – William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Galileo’s Choice 9/1
Steps To Freedom 9/1
Midnight Game 10/1
Simonsig 10/1
Cinders And Ashes 11/1
Darlan 14/1
Trifolium 14/1
Vulcanite 14/1
Colour Squadron 16/1
Montbazon 16/1
Tetlami 16/1
Dildar 20/1
Prospect Wells 25/1
Sous Les Cieux 25/1

Talking Horses Tips:

Cinders And Ashes @ 11/1 & Trifolium @ 14/1