Synchronised - Reigning Gold Cup hero, bidding to become first horse since the legendary Golden Miller in 1934 to win the Gold Cup & Grand National in the same season. This year’s Gold Cup looked a weak renewal though and being champion probably flatters him slightly. Has won Welsh & Midlands National’s previously though and has stamina in abundance, but even though he likes the mud, will find it tough going under top weight and his jumping can be suspect.
Ballabriggs – Last year’s winner also bidding to try and equal a long-standing record by recording back to back victories in the race. The last horse to do that was Red Rum in the seventies, who was trained by the legendary Ginger McCain, Ballabriggs is trained by Ginger’s son Donald so it wouldn’t be a total shock if he pulled it off but he’s got more weight this year and although he had an adequate prep run at Kelso and there’s no questioning his stamina it looks a big ask this time around. Definite place claims based on recent trends though.
Weird Al – Talented but fragile winner of this year’s Charlie Hall Chase also an inmate of Donald McCain. Impressive novice chase campaign saw him go unbeaten but lost his way after that, switching yards after pulling up in 2011 Gold Cup in which he reportedly burst a blood vessel. Had looked good this season until pulled up in Gold Cup again and there has to be question marks over whether the National will be his race or not.
Neptune Collonges – Very good horse on his day and champion trainer Paul Nicholls’ only hope this season for breaking his Grand National duck. Third and fourth in recent Gold Cups and a winner at Grade 1 level; out of the winner’s enclosure since January last year though. Surprisingly, still only eleven but Ruby Walsh’s snub looks telling.
Calgary Bay – Fell in this last year but another high class chaser who has been running well in handicaps this season and is two out of two in 2012. Never completed a race even close to this marathon trip but stayed on well to win last time out beating some good horses in the process. Would be a surprise to see him land the spoils here but not beyond the realms of possibility for the trainer of legendary champion Best Mate.
Alfa Beat – First of several Irish raiders with two Kerry National wins over 3m to his name. Fell in last year’s Topham over the National fences though and has unseated and been pulled up in his last two races which is a concern, the latter of which was a prominent Grand National trial in Ireland. You have to have a little bit of respect for any horse trained by someone whose nickname is Shark however.
Planet Of Sound – Guinness Gold Cup winner at Grade 1 level in 2010 and has run well since, including when second in this season’s Hennessy. Not without a chance on recent form although he was never really in contention last time out when soundly beaten over 3m. Plenty of others who are probably better treated and more likely to take to the race.
Black Apalachi – Loves it over the big Aintree fences as evidenced by his Becher win in 2008 and his second behind Don’t Push It in the 2010 Grand National; had also looked like the winner when leading them all a merry dance in 2009 renewal before unseating on the second circuit at Becher’s Brook. Had not been seen since 2010 National before prep run at Fairyhouse in February when a good second behind long time ante-post Grand National fancy Prince De Beauchene in the Bobby Jo Chase. Stats against a thirteen year old winning and trainer has stated he feels this weight is harsh, but officially 5lbs in on ratings and has to have an each-way chance at a big price if continuing his love affair with the course.
Deep Purple – Winner of London National over 3m6f in December but had previously been winless since winning the Peterborough in December 2009. Fell last time out in the Racing Plus Chase and looks for all intents and purposes to be his yard’s third string.
Junior – Has been near the head of the ante-post market for quite some time and has been laid out for this race. Smart dual-purpose performer achieving rare double of a win at Royal Ascot & Cheltenham within 12 months; particularly catching the eye when landing a huge gamble at the latter when running away with the Kim Muir. Since failing to retain his Ascot Stakes crown on the flat last June at the Royal Meeting, has only been seen twice, first up in a pipe-opening hurdles race and then when second in a photo-finish in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. His jumping that day was appalling but he battled on well at the finish and was slightly hampered by a faller on the run-in. It goes without saying he’s a major player but tends to jump through fences rather than over them and you simply can’t do that at Aintree and get round.
Chicago Grey – Potential dark horse (ironic given that he’s a grey) for 2007’s winning trainer Gordon Elliot. Silver Birch’s win in 2007 marked Elliot as a rising training star and he’s only gone from strength to strength since. Chicago Grey is a Cheltenham Festival winner having landed the National Hunt Chase in 2011 over 4m1f; winless since but will go on any ground and will definitely stay.
Tatenen – Was a useful hurdles recruit from France for Paul Nicholls before losing his way when sent chasing. Rejuvenated somewhat of late after switching yards to Richard Rowe and landing the Victor Chandler Handicap two years in a row at Ascot. There must be question marks over his stamina though and this looks a huge task even on the pick of his form.
Seabass – Really interesting Irish challenger from Ted Walsh who saddled Papillion to victory in 2000. Has now won 6 races on the spin on soft and heavy ground which means he’ll have no trouble handling the forecast ground. Yet to attempt further than 3m but no doubt he’ll stay; beat good horses in 2m Grade 2 at Naas last time out and daughter Katie Walsh takes the ride for dad Ted.
Shakalakaboomboom – Nicky Henderson’s lone hope of breaking his National hoodoo this year. Ran well in last year’s Topham (7th) when looking like wanting much further. On the upgrade since with wins at Punchestown and Cheltenham before just being touched off in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster at the end of January. Was second in a hurdles prep race last time out and is still lightly raced; should go well.
West End Rocker – Has come in for a lot of support since the rain came and with more forecast before the race is sure to be very popular right up to the off. Going well enough in this last year before being brought down early, and has tasted success on the National course with a win in this season’s Becher. Unseasonably quick ground through the winter has kept him off the track since but should stay (has won over 3m5f) and if he gets the luck that deserted him last year looks to have a big shout of making amends.
According To Pete – Consistent sort who will also relish a bit of give under foot. Has been a revelation this year with big wins at Wetherby and Haydock in good handicaps. Prep run at Kelso was adequate enough (finished in front of Ballabriggs) and trainer bullish of a big showing here. Stats-wise age is a negative and he has had a long career but stamina shouldn’t be a question mark and if he takes to the fences is a great each-way selection at a bigger price.
On His Own – You’d have to say he’s under-priced now due to the Ruby Walsh factor but the fact that Ruby has elected to ride him should be a clue to what connections think of this horse in itself. Not much experience over fences in truth which is a negative when coming in to a race of this nature but he has form on all sorts of ground and was highly impressive when winning the Thyestes at Gowran by 13l. Unlucky the time before that when brought down when well-fancied at Leopardstown over Christmas and is bred to stay. Can’t be ruled out.
Always Right – Lightly raced for a ten-year old and looked to be building up in to a major player in the staying division throughout 2011 but has been bitterly disappointing when pulled up on the last two occasions, which is a huge concern for a race as gruelling as this. Not without a place claim on strongest form but it would take somewhat of a leap of faith to fancy him for this on the back of his last two runs.
Cappa Bleu – My idea of the winner now for quite some time and has been well-supported by many in the run up to the race. Jockey Paul Moloney has got off a horse that has placed for the last three years to ride him and again connections are confident of a big run. Rain will help, but wouldn’t want it too heavy as that seemed to get the better of him when distant third in the Welsh National in December. He had a big weight that day though and caught the eye with the way he battled on in an absolute bog. Won the Foxhunters at Cheltenham in 2009 and jumps a fence beautifully; has never tasted Aintree’s big fences but has a touch of class about him and has looked back to his best this season after a few problems since that Foxhunters win. Narrowly won a competitive handicap at Haydock in November, the form of which has taken a number of boosts, before that Welsh National third. Last seen at Ascot after the weights were published when running third looking like needing every inch of the 3m distance. An out and out stayer, he’s been laid out for this race and should give supporters a big run for their money.
Rare Bob – Irish raider from the legendary Dessie Hughes, a man who knows how to get them ready for this race. Has always somewhat struggled to get his head in front over the years but has experience over the National fences having been a distant fifth in this season’s gruelling Becher. Unseated at this meeting last season and hasn’t won since early January last year. Ran fourth in an Irish National a few seasons back though so could stay on past beaten horses for a place but that’s probably the best you will get.
Organisedconfusion – Arthur Moor’s Irish raider and the mount of leading female jumps jockey Nina Carberry. Won last season’s Irish Grand National in good style and that form has worked out quite well since. Only seven but has seemingly been laid out for this race with what one would call a ‘classic’ National prep. Stamina will be no issue and should go on the ground but will probably need some of the others to hit some bad luck to win here, but stranger things have happened at Aintree.
Treacle – Another interesting Irish contender who caused a few people to sit up and take note when running the race of his life in to third in Grade 1 Irish Hennessy in February. Had previously been a narrow second in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and got a taste of Aintree in a Veteran’s Chase in October. Will need to improve again dramatically to get involved here, which at 11 is unlikely.
The Midnight Club – Sixth in this last year having been very well-supported, didn’t have the easiest of races having been hampered a couple of times but looked a little hesitant over the fences which is obviously a big concern. Not even considered the Mullins first string this year surprisingly. Was a distant ninth in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March and the rest of his season has been disappointing. Any horse that can stay out a Grand National, let alone finish sixth with excuses, merits a degree of respect but realistically last year was probably his chance.
Mon Mome – 2009’s shock winner who is now weighted to potentially go well again having fallen in 2010 and missed last year’s race. Stats say he can’t win as a twelve year old but caught the eye at Cheltenham in January when staying on strongly to take second. Has failed to build on that performance since, having been pulled up twice on heavy ground before trailing in twelfth of nineteen in a competitive Cheltenham Festival handicap last time out. Can’t be written off as a former winner but would be a big shock if he was to win again, but big shocks are this horse’s specialty.
Arbor Supreme – Boasts a pretty shocking National record having unseated and fallen in the last two renewals and way down the JP McManus pecking order again here. Has been campaigned solely over hurdles this season which doesn’t tell us much but has patches of strong form spread over his career, would take an uncharacteristic return to his very best to even get competitive this time around though.
Sunnyhillboy – Supposedly the top horse in the race based on shrewd Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings following his win at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir last month. Would no doubt be much higher in the betting if McCoy had elected to ride as was rumoured after Cheltenham, but don’t read too much into that with AP going for that historic double with the favourite. Really caught the eye at Cheltenham when storming up the hill under a big weight and looks sure to put in a bold bid here.
Killyglen – Fell in this last year but really well-weighted this time around and bred to gallop and stay. Looks to have come on leaps and bounds since being switched to Stuart Crawford in Ireland and was an impressive winner of the Daily Mirror Chase at Down Royal last time out over 3m2f. Done the majority of his winning on the sort of ground he’ll get Saturday and looks a strong each-way possibility to me.
Quiscover Fontaine – Another one for JP, this time housed with Willie Mullins, which is a combination I usually like to keep on side. Another one who’s had a hurdles only prep this year having been fourth in last year’s Irish National, presumably with this race in mind. Lightly raced and only eight but with the top jockeys having bypassed him you’d have to think he’s up against it here.
Tharawaat – Another somewhat unknown quantity here previously on the flat with Barry Hills. Now trained by Gordon Elliot for Irish powerhouse Gigginstown Stud, owned by Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary. Although O’Leary would love nothing more than to add a Grand National to his Gold Cup won with War of Attrition the fact that Davy Russell, Gigginstown’s retained rider is on Alfa Beat speaks volumes in my eyes. Form this season has been patchy too and you’d be a braver man than me to suggest he had a big chance; that said you can never quite rule out a Gordon Elliot outsider.
Becauseicouldntsee – Quite aptly named given that he was down at the second fence last year when well fancied by many (myself included). Form since then had been in and out until Cheltenham when he virtually made all in the Kim Muir before getting out-stayed up the hill by Sunnyhillboy. On the strength of that form he has to be a player and given Sunnyhillboy’s standing as one of the race’s supposed best handicapped horses Becauseicouldntsee can’t be too far off that accolade either. Stamina is not a question mark having narrowly been touched off at Cheltenham in 2011 as well in the 4m National Hunt Chase and the way he jumped at this year’s Festival would suggest he’ll get a lot further than the second this year with any luck. A contender and good each-way bet.
State Of Play – Placed in last three renewals of this race (4th 2009, 3rd 2010 & 4th 2011) each time managing to come from a mile back to stay on past beaten horses. Now 12 and looking unlikely he’ll be able to achieve that again, especially with regular partner Paul Moloney getting off him to ride Cappa Bleu. Great substitute booked in Champion Hurdle winning jockey Noel Fehily though. Same prep as last year with no race course runs and would be great to see him go well again. Well weighted to do so but looks a monster ask for fourth straight year.
Swing Bill – Free-wheeling grey who won impressively at Cheltenham’s Open meeting at the start of the season. Fifth in last year’s Topham and generally consistent but was pulled up in the Becher over these fences in December and was a distant seventeenth when last seen in the Kim Muir at the Festival. Down the Pipe pecking order and at eleven stats are against him, this is also a big step up in trip for him compared to anything he’s faced before and stamina could find him out, especially if ground comes up very soft.
Postmaster – Won his last two but fell at the first in last year’s Topham on first attempt over National fences. Vastly experienced but as a result rather exposed, however still only ten and trainer has sent-out marathon race winners in the past. Had been off the track for almost two thirds of a year when returning with a win at Ludlow recently but aside from being on for a third win in a row there’s nothing in his form to suggest he’ll be anything but an also-ran here. Cue him bolting up by 20 lengths…
Giles Cross – Best weighted horse in the race in my opinion. Stays all day and will relish soft ground. Welsh National second behind Le Beau Bai before turning that form around at Haydock in February. Was second in Welsh National last season as well (behind Synchronised) and has also placed in a particularly gruelling Eider at Newcastle over 4m1f. Regular partner Denis O’Regan riding Black Apalachi means Paddy Brennan takes over on board. Lack of experience over National fences a concern but if he takes to them he could be very hard to peg back from the front on ground he loves off a fantastic racing weight.
Midnight Haze – Really lightly-raced ten-year-old from trainer Kim Bailey, who has been somewhat bullish of a big run. Last seen running sixth in the controversial Cross Country at Cheltenham last month which was a solid prep given that he’d never gone beyond 3m1f prior to that. Should jump well and stay on at the end so at a big price could be an each-way possibility but realistically it would take a Herculean effort for him to get involved in the finish.
Vic Venturi – Another from Dessie Hughes who gets in on just 10st and looks well-weighted in spite of being twelve now. Won the Becher in 2009 but has been luckless in the last two renewals of the National being brought down both times. In truth he was well out of contention when coming down in 2010 but was up there when coming to grief at the second last year. He beat stable mate Black Apalachi in the 2010 Bobby Jo at Fairyhouse and ran a big race to take second in the Grade 1 Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown last May. Has only been seen once this season though when disappointing at Leopardstown in February and looks to be his stable’s third string. A good run wouldn’t be a complete shock but looks unlikely at this stage of his career.
In Compliance – Another Dessie Hughes horse who was sixth in last year’s Topham and has placed in a Guinness Gold Cup over 3m1f. Trailed home in thirteenth last year so we at least know he can get round over course and distance but recent form has been patchy to say the least. He was third behind Killyglen last time out at Down Royal over 3m2f though the finishing position probably flatters him slightly having been some 37l behind the winner. Not a complete write-off but would probably do well to better last year’s finishing position.
Viking Blond – Somewhat interesting seven-year-old from Nigel Twiston-Davies yard who have won this race twice before. Pulled up in that gruelling Welsh National earlier in the season on first attempt at any sort of marathon trip. Has patches of okay novice chase form this season having been a decent hurdler but was a very distant fifth last time out at Ascot (Cappa Bleu third) and this looks a massive challenge for a novice.
Hello Bud – At 14 almost as old as his jockey, but for me perhaps the stronger chance of the two Twiston-Davies horses. Was running a blinder in this two years ago when he seemed to just empty at the business end of affairs, still plugged on for 5th though. Has won a Scottish National over 4m though so stamina not an issue, or at least wasn’t in his younger days, and showed his love for this course when landing the Becher in 2010. Went well for a spell in this last year before being pulled up and form has been largely poor since including unseating in this season’s Becher. Has a lot to do from 10lb out of the handicap and age is clearly not on his side but he does love it round here, needs to see the race out this time around though.
Neptune Equester – Bizarrely once referred to as the best chaser in the north by his never-short-of-an-opinion trainer Brian Ellison but has shown no signs of deserving that moniker since his Haydock win over 3m4f back in November on Betfair Chase day. Has been well beaten by a number of his National opponents on various occasions this season and from well out of the handicap looks to have a lot to do to turn his form around here.
Reserves:-
Any Currency – London National third (won by Deep Purple) from the rising Martin Keighley yard. Winless since late 2009 though but does stay 4m. Pulled up in the gruelling Welsh National that claimed many a victim earlier in the season and not shown much of anything since to suggest he can get back to winning ways, last seen beaten 57l in the Argento at Cheltenham in January.
Our Island – Another from Welsh maestro Tim Vaughan, who was sixth in his home country’s National race earlier in the season. Lightly raced but will stay 4m, as evidenced by his eighth place finish in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last month. Pick of his form this season would be his second in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock back in December, but in all honesty not only needs two to come out to even get in the race but a minor miracle to even be competitive if he does.
Abbeybraney – Eleven-year-old who managed to finish in front of Ballabriggs last time out at Kelso but that statistic is flattering to say the least. Some of his early Irish form is solid but has often struggled to get his head in front and fell over these fences in the Becher earlier in the season. Pulled up on his only attempt at 4m to date and if he gets in to the race you’d be a brave man or a pin-sticker to be backing him.
Smoking Aces – Stranger things have happened than four coming out before the big race to allow Tom Taffe’s eight-year-old in but of the four reserves he’s probably got the best chance should he get a run. Beating subsequently impressive Eider winner Portrait King at Fairyhouse in December looks a really solid bit of form now for a race over this sort of trip but was put in his place by that same horse in February when only sixth on heavy ground at Punchestown over 3m4f. Any JP horse is worth a look but if he were to get in realistically has little to no chance against some far superior horses.
1. Cappa Bleu
2. Giles Cross
3. Black Apalachi
4. Killyglen
The rain this week has warmed me up to Giles Cross’s chance but I still feel that he’ll be playing for place money behind Cappa Bleu. The yard has a great record in this race and this horse looks tailor-made for the Grand National, I’m confident of a massive run. Black Apalachi might be thirteen but he loves it round here and can get in the place money again proving the stats wrong and Killyglen can make amends for a few near misses with another near miss but this time on the grandest stage of all.
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