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| Lovin' The Crus - Grands Crus looks very well handicapped for Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup |
The relentless big race run begins on Saturday at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting with the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a race that’s delivered some great moments over the years and has previously been a seasonal starting point for some big names; not least in recent years with subsequent Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander.
This year’s race looks like being another competitive renewal with several big names set to make their seasonal bow in the race.
My Ten To Follow list for the coming jumps season has been going great guns thus far with the first four off it to run all winning first time out, however this Saturday I’ll begrudgingly be hoping that one of my selections off that list doesn’t get the job done in the Paddy Power because Hunt Ball will be taking on my ante-post selection for this race Grands Crus.
I made no secret last season that I thought Grands Crus should run in the Gold Cup rather than the RSA in spite of his novice status at the time. Many now would point to his abomination of a run at the festival as evidence that I was wrong; of course if he ran as he did in the RSA he wouldn’t have won but if you look at the eventual 1-2 in last year’s Gold Cup you couldn’t say it was a strong renewal and I still maintain if a healthy Grands Crus had turned up he would have been in with a real chance of a famous win.
I say healthy because following the festival the machine-like grey scoped dirty proving he was far from fully fit at Cheltenham, the point of all this is that I believed Grands Crus good enough last year to win the Gold Cup, so now a season on my belief is even stronger and the Paddy Power looks an ideal starting point for him before he goes on to hopefully land the King George on Boxing Day. Realistically, this term I think the King George is a more likely prize for him to collect than the Gold Cup but I am still quietly confident on both fronts.
With Saturday’s race though he could be absolutely chucked in at the weights in a race that trainer David Pipe won last year with Great Endeavour and his father Martin enjoyed great success in over the years previously.
Given that he’ll race off a mark of 157 when the horse he beat in the Feltham at Kempton last Boxing Day Silviniaco Conti has just been raised to 168 following his Charlie Hall rout the Saturday before last, Grands Crus looks extremely well handicapped going in to the race.
He’s proved he loves Cheltenham (he got to within 2l of Big Buck’s don’t forget at the 2011 festival over hurdles) – if, like me you’re willing to forgive his RSA run – and it has long been suggested that the interim trip may actually prove to be his optimum trip as opposed to 3m. I don’t necessarily subscribe to that theory but he certainly has the speed for 2m4f, and having proved himself over further there should be no stamina doubts coming up the hill.
David Pipe has publicly commented on how well treated his horse could be and with that stable flying at present, heading in to a meeting they do notoriously well at, the stars look aligned for Grands Crus to bounce back to the sort of form over fences that saw him go unbeaten last season until his festival blip.
The value, for me, is still there at 9/4 – although hopefully some of you got on at the bigger prices that were available over the past couple of weeks – and as I think many are, I’m confident of a big run from the grey who a lot of people said evoked memories of the great Desert Orchid when he motored round Kempton last Christmas – he’s not there yet but Saturday could be a giant step in the direction of greatness for Grands Crus.
Grands Crus’ biggest challenger on Saturday looks like being the ultra-progressive Hunt Ball, who rapidly ascended through the ranks last year and ended his season with an excellent third in the Grade 1 Bowl at Aintree.
His official rating has increased by almost 100 in the space of twelve months and he genuinely does not look like he’s stopped improving. Eccentric owner Anthony Knott has been telling everyone who’ll listen to “lump on Hunt Ball” and that it’s not case of it but by how far, and his confidence certainly is infectious.
Hunt Ball is already a Cheltenham winner having landed the Novices’ Chase over this distance on the first day of the festival earlier this year. His Grade 1 third is obviously his strongest piece of form to date, but to play devil’s advocate, as I have to having bet against him, several big names failed to perform that day and the fact that Follow The Plan won that race would immediately lead me to question how accurate the form of the race really is.
In addition, although he has progressed incredibly over the past year, looking back through the form he’s not exactly beaten many good horses. I’m in no way trying to take anything away from what he’s achieved, because were he not up against one of my favourite horses in training I’d probably be lumping on him as well, as like many fans of the sport I have a huge soft spot for this horse.
Hunt Ball is reportedly, as you’d expect, in great form at home and could continue right where he left off last season at Cheltenham on Saturday, but he could also be bumping in to a very well-handicapped horse.
A horse that’s come for money since the confirmation he would take his chance is Grands Crus’ half brother Al Ferof from the dominant Paul Nicholls stable.
Like Grands Crus he too was a top novice last season, and let’s not forget he’s one of only three horses to ever have finished in front of Sprinter Sacre on a race course when he landed the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2011.
Al Ferof’s neck defeat of For Non Stop when a long odds on chance early last season at the time looked like this horse underperformed but having seen how the runner-up that day came out this season in the Old Roan that could actually have been a very good performance.
He then ran an admirable race in defeat against the more experienced horses in the Grade 1 Victor Chandler when third behind Somersby and subsequent Champion Chase winner Finian’s Rainbow before he at least tried to make a race of it with Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. A mistake at the top of the hill put an end to any sort of challenge to the eventual winner that day but he never really looked like being able to live with an exceptional horse – his season ended with the dreaded Aintree bounce when well beaten back in third over this trip behind Menorah and Cristal Bonus.
Talk for this season has been of a Gold Cup attempt so there’s obviously a degree of confidence behind him and although his recent form may not look great, if you look at what has beaten him in those races there’s actually no shame in it at all.
No one could claim to be surprised were Al Ferof to come out and win on Saturday at a track he’s won at before and a meeting he won at last year but he doesn’t look to be that well-handicapped to me and will likely find a couple better off.
Next in the betting is Alan King’s Walkon, another who’s run well at Prestbury Park in the past but there’s one glaring bit of form that puts me off him entirely and that’s that a below par Grands Crus still beat him in the RSA last season.
Granted he’s got a stone pull in the weights here and will almost certainly stay the trip comfortably, but Walkon’s novice form was actually quite disappointing last season for me and he looks ample short enough in the betting considering.
Michael Flips was Tom Segal’s Pricewise selection a couple of weeks back, but unless the great tipster knows something I don’t, I can’t see him coming out on top here, even with a fourth to Gold Cup favourite Sir Des Champs under his belt from this year’s festival.
Of the remainder, Nadiya De La Vega ran a great race at Cheltenham at the end of last month and immediately earned quotes for this race, but there is a suspicion she is better fresh and has had her problems in the past as well. As Tony McCoy’s likely mount it’d be foolish to rule her out, but she will probably find several of these too good.
The admirable Poquelin is still in there at the moment pushing everyone’s weight down – a possible indicator for the other Nicholls runner Al Ferof perhaps – and he has run well in this race before – including when second in 2009 – as well as proving he can shoulder top weight in the past; he looks vulnerable to younger improvers but could be each-way value, especially if the ground were to soften up a little.
Divers, Aerial, Tanks For That and Wishfull Thinking are all capable enough of winning this on the best of their days but with the exception of the Nicholls runner (Aerial) they all need to leave a string of bad performances behind them.
While Forpadydeplasterer has been called the forgotten horse of the race by his trainer and could also be a big price at 33/1 in places on the best of his form. He too needs to rediscover his best form though having largely disappointed since his festival win in 2009 and the string of seconds that followed.
In a race he always targets though, for David Pipe to have the confidence to rely solely on one runner speaks volumes and Grands Crus looks to have everything in his favour to rack up back to back wins in the race for the Pond House handler, on what will hopefully be the road to bigger and better things this season.
Paddy Power Gold Cup - Selected Best Odds:
Grands Crus 9/4
Hunt Ball 11/2
Al Ferof 8/1
Walkon 8/1
Michael Flips 14/1
Nadiya De La Vega 14/1
Divers 16/1
Quantitativeeasing 20/1
Aerial 25/1
Poquelin 25/1
Forpadydeplasterer 33/1
Calgary Bay 33/1
Tanks For That 33/1
Wishfull Thinking 33/1
Recommendation:
Back Grands Crus to win @ 9/4 (Betfred, Sportingbet, Blue Square, Paddy Power, 888)
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