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| Another Approach? - Libertarian can become the latest New Approach offspring to land a classic |
Won last year in a mud bath by Camelot, Ballydoyle will be hoping to follow up in the 2013 renewal without it taking as much out of their Epsom hero as it seemed to twelve months ago.
The ground should be nowhere near as horrendous as it was last year and hopefully a few more than the five that went to post twelve months ago will line-up here.
Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore operation have won the race every year since 2006 and they would have to be hopeful that Epsom victor Ruler Of The World will add to that impressive record for them in 2013.
The unbeaten colt became the first horse since Shergar to follow up victory in the Chester Vase with victory in the Epsom classic and the son of Galileo currently heads up the betting looking to make it four wins out of four.
Unraced at two, Ruler Of The World has improved with every outing in 2013 and it’s hard to know still just how good he can be. However given how close the first five all finished to each other at Epsom, it is difficult to make a case on the form book for him being as short in the market as he is at present.
Obviously the Ballydoyle stranglehold on the race is also factored in to that price, but at just under three times the price Epsom second Libertarian looks a better bet from a value perspective.
The New Approach colt was a somewhat surprising winner of the Dante in some people’s eyes and went in to the Derby still underestimated by many. He plainly didn’t handle Epsom’s idiosyncrasies but once he got rolling on the run-in he flew home, staying on better than anything and had he been a bit closer when the race first got serious, I think he’d have won.
He looks the sort that would appreciate the stiff finish at the Curragh and with connections having supplemented him for the race, confidence must be high of him going one better than Epsom.
Recently bought by Godolphin – who I am convinced want to buy in to the New Approach bloodline to build their own super-stallion line akin to Coolmore with Galileo, Montjeu and those two great horses’ offspring – a win in this race would really amp up the stud value of this horse and would be a great story for not only small Yorkshire-based trainer Elaine Burke, but also for New Approach, who thus far this season has sired the 2000 Guineas winner, the Oaks winner and the Derby second.
Epsom third Galileo Rock also renews rivalry with the first and second from the Derby here but he looks a more out and out stayer, and is my current fancy for the St. Leger. I’m sure he’ll run another big race and for me, more importantly, another good trial for Doncaster but he might not quite have the speed to match his Epsom conquerors.
That said strictly on form he does have an 8l finish ahead of Libertarian to his name from earlier in the season, but his price for a place is not exactly appealing as things stand.
Second string for Ballydoyle could be Epsom fourth Battle Of Marengo, but having been turned over at a short price in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot last week he’s no certainty to run and even if he did he looks to have hit his glass ceiling now and it’d be a surprise to see him emerge on top.
Quick ground really would be detrimental to his chances, but with a few other strong stayers in the field even if it turned attritional out there he may still find one or two too good again.
Trading Leather represents Jim Bolger, a man who had a nightmare at Epsom with Dawn Approach, but with that one now back on the right track following his St. James’s Palace victory last week it would be kind of poetic for Bolger to take the spoils here.
Trading Leather is tough and has good solid form in the book – a Group 3 winner at 2, 2nd in the Dante, 3rd in the Irish 2000 Guineas and winner of a confidence-boosting Listed race last time out.
He’s mixed it with the best in his fledgling career to date and often emerged on top, it would certainly be no surprise to see him run his race and go close again, but he may just have to settled for minor honours again back at the highest level.
Sugar Boy is interesting having landed the Bet365 Classic Trial at Sandown in April but then not running again since. He accounted for a few of these in that Group 3 contest and gave Battle Of Marengo plenty to think about in the Ballysax prior to that. He’s consistent enough and could fly under the radar a little here given his rather unsexy profile, but it would take a big effort to finish in front here, especially coming off a long enough lay-off with many of these probably having a fitness edge over him.
Of the remainder, Festive Cheer and Count Of Limonade both look likely candidates to be the proverbial Ballydoyle scalded cat, while Little White Cloud and especially Ralston Road look up against it on what they’ve achieved so far.
Cap O’Rushes ran well under top weight in the King George V at Royal Ascot last week but if he were to line-up it could be in order to make the pace for his half brother Libertarian, who looks to have an excellent chance of bettering his performance in the British equivalent of this race, continuing what has been an incredible first classic season for his sire and offering a bit of value to do so in the process.
Irish Derby Best Odds:
Ruler Of The World 5/4
Libertarian 7/2
Trading Leather 6/1
Galileo Rock 7/1
Sugar Boy 8/1
Battle Of Marengo 10/1
Count Of Limonade 33/1
Festive Cheer 33/1
Little White Cloud 33/1
Cap O’Rushes 100/1
Ralston Road 100/1
Recommendation:
1pt win Libertarian @ 7/2 (Stan James, Paddy Power, William Hill)
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