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| What's that coming over the Hill? - Supplemented Hillstar can step up and win the King George |
At the time of writing it is unknown whether the injury will also be life-ending, but hopefully St. Nic can be saved and can go on to the stud career I always expected of him.
This year’s King George was already just missing something for me and with St. Nic now out too it really does feel a little lackluster. That said, it does look competitive stuff and could end up being a wide open renewal of a race that has provided some real thrills over the last few years.
The race has always had a distinctly international flavour and this year’s renewal is no different, and what better place to start than with the highest rated horse in training in the world Cirrus Des Aigles.
He’s already an Ascot winner having sprung somewhat of a surprise winning the Champion Stakes in 2011 and the apple of Corine Barande-barbe’s eye is a short priced favourite to repeat the feat in the King George.
It does look a weak renewal with no real confirmed superstars in there besides Cirrus, so in that respect you’d say the race is at his mercy but for me he is at his brilliant best over shorter than this and for that reason, at a short price, I’m prepared to take him on.
The gulf in class could be enough to see him home in front even if he isn’t quite at his peak over 1m4f but if you take him out of the race it looks wide open and as a result there is plenty of value away from the multiple-Group 1 winning superstar.
The horse that beat Cirrus Des Aigles on his return last month comes next in the betting and will try to add a consecutive victory in the race for Germany to Danedream’s thrilling win twelve months ago.
Novellist is a talented animal and with man of the moment Johnny Murtagh in the saddle the stars look aligned for a big run. Although no one could possibly suggest Cirrus Des Aigles, known to never run brilliantly first time up, was at his peak at Saint-Cloud last time Novellist still beat some other good Group horses that day including the globe-trotting Dunaden.
He battled well that day and should be on the premises when things get serious again here but unlike Danedream last year the market hasn’t exactly missed him.
Next in the betting is Irish Derby hero Trading Leather for the genius that is Jim Bolger. The weight for age allowance in the King George has always been exceptionally generous with three-year-olds receiving almost a stone from their elders and as a result can never be discounted easily.
That fact will form part of the basis for my selection in the race in a second, so Trading Leather is very much feared on that basis, however whether he quite has the turn of foot I would say you need for this is questionable in my eyes and whether he is ultimately good enough is an even bigger question.
That may sound crazy when talking about a classic winner over the distance, but that Irish Derby was run in a ridiculous manner and none of the perceived big guns really fired putting a huge doubt in my mind about the form of the race.
Prior to his classic success he’d been admirable but distinctly unspectacular and I think Trading Leather could struggle here even with the great J S Bolger behind him.
Ektihaam showed his ability over the course and distance when landing a Listed race here in May and looked to be on the verge of running his rivals ragged again when slipping up and unseating Paul Hanagan in the Hardwicke at the Royal meeting.
Whether that little incident left a scar on the former champion jockey I don’t know, but his decision to head to York on Saturday to ride in a Group 2 rather than this most prestigious of Group 1s for me says all you need to know about the confidence behind Ektihaam’s chance here.
Ektihaam’s presence could be a crucial factor in my fancy Hillstar’s chance of success however.
Hillstar is also a course and distance winner having landed the King Edward VII at the Royal meeting and he did so chasing down a trail-blazing Battle Of Marengo. The harder Ektihaam goes from the front the greater Hillstar’s chance of victory is in my opinion.
The fact they have supplemented this horse for the race doesn’t mean much given how the Rothschilds probably view £75,000, but Sir Michael Stoute has an exemplary record in this race and I can’t imagine he’d be running this horse unless he thought he could add another King George victory to his resume with him.
Hillstar comes in to the race with an almost identical profile to Nathaniel who won this in 2011 and like Nathaniel at this point in his career we don’t yet know how good this horse is. The weight-for-age factor also comes in to play with Hillstar and he will have arguably the best jockey riding today on board in Ryan Moore.
Yes he needs to improve again dramatically to get involved here but with the race looking likely to be run to suit I can see a big run on the cards from a horse that can prove that although the Derby form may not be up to much, there are still some exciting three-year-old middle distance horses out there.
With St. Nicholas Abbey’s withdrawal from the race the 12/1 available on Hillstar on Monday is long gone but the 8/1 still on offer still looks decent value to me and I can see him going off shorter again still on the day.
Of the remainder, Mark Johnston’s Universal has enjoyed a fantastic season to date but as admirable as his toughness is whether he quite has the class for this is questionable. He has done his best work this season when making all, and with Ektihaam in the field he won’t get it all his own way up front and might not be seen to his best effect if so; and he will need to be at his best to be able to land a blow in this.
Universal remains a nice each-way price though and he won’t know when to call enough and could snatch a place. Johnston’s horses are flying and you’d be a fool to write him off completely, but it would be a somewhat of a shock were he able to win this.
With St. Nic not in the race I’d think it would be pretty unlikely now that Ballydoyle will have a representative, as I would imagine both Ernest Hemingway and Chamonix are in here as pacemakers. If one or both were to run, and it would certainly be strange to see a huge Group 1 event such as this without an Aidan O’Brien trained horse in the field, it would be a huge surprise if either was good enough to win, though both remain lightly raced and stranger things have happened!
Red Cadeaux is a credit to his connections and he always surprises me but I just can’t see him getting involved here. I’ve always thought of him as more of a stayer but he did finish with a rapid turn of foot to grab second in the Dubai World Cup over shorter, however in spite of that race’s value I think the form is extremely questionable.
Very Nice Name could be the dark horse of the race though, the French star was third behind St. Nic in the Sheema Classic at Meydan and though his French form wouldn’t put him in with much of a chance here he has been running well in Qatar and is very hard to assess for this. Olivier Peslier has won this race before and takes the ride.
If Cirrus Des Aigles runs to his best then he should win, but for me there are question marks over whether he will turn up here in peak form, the rain expected for the rest of the week will only aid his cause but a short price he’s ripe for taking on in my opinion.
Looking at the rest of the field though it really is wide open, and the one that stands out on several factors to me is Hillstar. Not only does he have a great chance in the race he is also a pretty decent price and as such gets the vote ahead of the summer showpiece.
King George - Best Odds:
Cirrus Des Aigles 13/8
Novellist 4/1
Trading Leather 9/2
Ektihaam 8/1
Hillstar 8/1
Ernest Hemingway 20/1
Universal 20/1
Very Nice Name 20/1
Red Cadeaux 33/1
Chamonix 125/1
Recommendation:
Hillstar 1pt win @ 8/1 (Sportingbet)
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