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| You Can't Stop The Rock - Rocky Creek is a strong Hennessy fancy |
The Newbury race has been won by some greats of the jumping game over the years, Mandarin, Arkle and the mighty Denman all won the race twice while Mill House, Burrough Hill Lad and One Man also feature on the roll of honour.
Over the last decade the race has consistently been a vital piece of form for the remainder of the season, producing multiple Grade 1 winners, whilst also setting the pulse racing with thrilling narratives throughout the race.
Denman’s three runs in the race (his two post-Gold Cup win especially) were some of the most emotionally charged races I’ve ever witnessed and Bobs Worth’s win in the race last year was another pulsating afternoon of sport.
This year’s renewal might not quite have that sort of star power, but in a typically competitive running we could potentially have an array of stars emerge from the race when it’s all said and done.
Second season chasers have tended to dominate the race and this year looks no different, with many of the leading protagonists beginning their sophomore year over obstacles.
Heading the betting at present is Alan King’s Invictus a horse that will have been off the track for a massive 651 days come Saturday, however his last run was a winning performance in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown at Ascot in February 2012 in which he defeated not only subsequent Gold Cup (and Hennessy) winner Bobs Worth but also Betfair Chase winner Silviniaco Conti in a strong performance.
To me that makes him a very simple proposition – if you can bring yourself to back a horse after pushing two years off the track then he looks absolutely chucked in at the weights.
He’s apparently been working well and national hunt horses do seem to be able to stand long breaks better than their flat counterparts, but in a race this competitive match fitness could be crucial and the lay-off could be the breaking point for Invictus’s chance.
He had been progressive as a novice though and is still only seven, on that Reynoldstown form he is handicapped to go extremely close but it would be one hell of a training performance if Alan King could pull this off.
Closely behind Invictus in the betting is the horse I’ve had in mind for this race since last season. Paul Nicholls’ Rocky Creek has always looked a Hennessy horse and the Ditcheat handler has gone to great lengths to get the horse here in one piece and on a mark he can win from.
Rocky Creek has been supported in recent days meaning the price is coming in at an annoying speed but I can’t see him getting much shorter than he is now and he’ll probably be available at a bigger price on the morning of the race knowing bookies these days.
Rocky Creek is still very lightly raced and enjoyed a decent enough hurdle campaign in 2011-2012 culminating in an eighth place finish in the Albert Bartlett.
He began last season with a narrow defeat to this season’s Charlie Hall hero Harry Topper which now obviously looks stronger than it did at the time. He then racked up a hat-trick including a very taking performance at Warwick where he ran out a 15l winner.
Rocky Creek’s novice campaign ended pretty disappointingly however when he trailed in third in the Mildmay at Aintree some 24l behind the winner Dynaste.
Rocky Creek has been my idea of the Hennessy winner for some time now and though that Aintree run didn’t quite end last season on a high, up until that point he had looked the right type for this race and he still fits a lot of the trends.
A cynic may even suggest the Aintree run being too bad to be true could have been viewed fortunate as it enabled him to maintain a good mark for this.
He’ll have to carry a hell of a lot more weight now Tidal Bay is out but it’s been done before, a number of times recently, and the Hennessy is often won by a horse near the top of the handicap anyway as class shines through.
The price is still contracting at the time of writing but I do think he remains a very backable each-way price and I’m confident he’ll run a big race.
RSA winners have a great record in this the following season so Lord Windermere has to be respected on that front to bag an elusive win for Ireland.
However I do feel he is the default RSA winner as if Boston Bob had stood up I think he’d have been tasting victory instead. Jumping is the name of the game though and Lord Windermere did that, but is perhaps now higher up the weights than he really should be, that said the vibes have been good and in all honesty I’m surprised Jim Culloty’s horse isn’t shorter in the betting at present.
It’d be a great story if Imperial Commander could do this at the ripe old age of twelve in what will be his last start – there’d be Denman-esque scenes in Berkshire I dare say – but even though I am an old romantic at heart I can’t see it.
He ran brilliantly on his comeback in the Argento in January but was getting a fair chunk of weight off most of his rivals and still couldn’t get his head in front, he also ran well for a long way in the National before fading quickly and pulling up.
There’s no doubt that on his very best form he is lurking on an extremely dangerous mark but in truth his best days look behind him and if he can even get close to a place it’ll be a blinding performance – he should probably be about twice the price he is.
Katenko is interesting; he was talked up as a potential Gold Cup horse on the back of two impressive January wins (giving Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Johns Spirit a 9l beating in the first) but injury ruled him out for the end of the season.
Shouldering a pound off top weight will not be easy but in a race full of likely improving horses he’s another one that could come on again and be a potential superstar.
Our Father, Hadrians Approach and Highland Lodge are all second season chasers that are towards the top of the market so must be considered, but personally I’m not sure any of them are quite good enough to win this.
Pricewise ante-post pick Merry King will surely remain popular but he’s not for me, whilst the Mullins entrants all look more likely to be using this as a Grand National prep if they even run.
Racing Plus Chase winner Opening Batsman would have a chance on that run, but he shot up the weights for that win and has struggled since. One I think could go well at a price though is Donald McCain’s Super Duty.
Other than a fall in January last year he’d never finished out of the first two until thumped by Dynaste at Aintree on his last start (Rocky Creek 3rd) that could have been a race too many for him though after gallantly going down a head to Same Difference in the Kim Muir, he meets that one on 4lb better terms here so I think should reverse that form and in a race that can be a real slog I think he could be staying on late.
It’s Rocky Creek that I’ve always fancied for this year’s Hennessy though and I’m not going to change that sentiment now, in spite of a contracting price. Paul Nicholls has always been sweet on this horse, he fits a lot of the stats for the race, isn’t badly handicapped, he jumps, he stays and I think any price that gives you a return on an each-way investment is a good bet.
I do think he’ll end up bigger than the current 7/1 best price on the day though, further driving a nail in to the coffin of ante-post betting, but even at the current price if he gets round I think he’ll be there or thereabouts and is capable of giving Paul Nicholls another big win in this brilliant race.
Hennessy 2013 – Selected Best Odds:
Rocky Creek 7/1
Invictus 15/2
Hadrians Approach 10/1
Our Father 10/1
Lord Windermere 10/1
Highland Lodge 12/1
Merry King 14/1
Katenko 14/1
Imperial Commander 16/1
Cloudy Too 20/1
Houblon Des Obeaux 20/1
Prince De Beauchene 20/1
Same Difference 20/1
Super Duty 20/1
On His Own 22/1
Triolo D’Alene 22/1
Opening Batsman 25/1
Vesper Bell 25/1
Cape Tribulation 28/1
Terminal 33/1
Recommendation:
Rocky Creek 1pt each-way @ 7/1 (Bet365, Bet Victor, Stan James, William Hill)
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