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| National Express - It's Grand National time again and there's a sense of deja vu with my selections. |
This Saturday all eyes will be on Aintree as the Grand National takes centre stage. Each year, along with the people’s race comes my runner-by-runner guide and after some relative success in recent years with a stream of placed horses, I’ll be trying to go one better and actually pick out the winner this time around.
As always it’s the most difficult race of the year of which to find the winner, as even the best handicapped of horses with all the right attributes for the race can come unstuck thanks to lady luck deserting them, but that’s why it’s the spectacle it is and why it still remains, no matter what anyone says, the greatest horse race on the planet.
The main hope once again is of course that all the stars, both human and equine, return safely and healthily following the race, but whether you’re looking for a big bet, a horse to stick a small each-way bet on or just checking whether the horse you drew in the sweepstake is any good or not hopefully you’ll find this runner-by-runner guide to the 2015 Grand National helpful.
Below you will find the competitors for Saturday’s Grand National and my take on each of their merits and chances in the world’s greatest race.
1. Lord Windermere – Last year’s shock winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup and ‘well in’ at the weights given the compressed handicap for the race. Without a win since that famous win at Cheltenham last March though and was highly disappointing in his attempt to defend that crown this year when last seen, pulling up having never been in the race. New jockey aboard now after Davy Russell controversially lost the ride following the Gold Cup (though would have missed this race anyway through injury). The ground will be more to his liking here than at Cheltenham but his hold up racing style will surely leave him a hostage to fortune should any chaos develop in front of him. Looks to have it all to do to complete the rare Gold Cup/Grand National double based on recent efforts and it’s looking increasingly likely he’ll never quite emulate last season’s spotlight moment. Same connections also have Spring Heeled, a horse that is arguably better suited for the race. Hard to deny his talent as a dual Cheltenham festival Grade 1 winner but this looks a big ask off top weight and it does somewhat have the air of an afterthought after he never turned up at Cheltenham.
2. Many Clouds – Winner of this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup probably the most prestigious handicap chase away from the Grand National. Has built on a promising, if unspectacular, novice campaign last season by going from strength to strength this term, including that aforementioned Hennessy win. Followed up his success in the Hennessy with a Grade 2 win at Cheltenham in January and was subsequently sent off joint second favourite for the Gold Cup when overnight rain brought with it his favoured ease in the ground. Never really got involved that day though – which to be fair neither did most – and ended up a rather remote sixth. Jumps well, off a favourable mark thanks to the compressed handicap and a definite stayer, but ground won’t be at his optimum condition and we’re only few weeks removed from that brutal slog in the Gold Cup. He’s one of the class horses in the field but there look to be others better equipped for the demands of this race.
3. Unioniste – One of several in the race for champion trainer Paul Nicholls and surprisingly, given a high profile and pretty successful career thus far, still only seven. Stats men will say he’s too young but there, is on the flip side of that, the chance that we’ve still not quite seen the best of him yet. Ran well enough in the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier on this season, finishing a somewhat distant sixth before obliging after being backed like defeat was out of the question in a Sandown handicap on the first weekend of the New Year. A little disappointing last time out when well beaten in the Denman Chase at Newbury but having seen what the winner that day did to a far better field when winning the Gold Cup last month perhaps in retrospect it wasn’t that bad of a run. Same connections won this with Neptune Collonges in 2012, he’s run well at Aintree before – albeit not on the National course – and he’s a strong stayer, but his best performances have all come on soft ground and he’s only a small horse with jumping that isn’t always the best so could struggle with Aintree’s infamous obstacles. No great shock to see him staying on late in the day though if he gets round and doesn’t get outpaced.
4. Rocky Creek – Another for Paul Nicholls and one of the favourites for the race having finished a respectable fifth last year and stormed right back to form last time out when romping to victory in the Betbright Chase at Kempton. Due to that first win for over two years coming after the National weights were revealed he now looks very well treated for a second crack at the big race. He jumped brilliantly round here last year and was still in contention at the business end of affairs before tiring on the run in. A breathing operation since and a season geared around one race and one race alone this time around would have to give you confidence of another bold show and if he can get in to a nice rhythm in front again and just see the race out better then he looks more than capable of being involved in the shake-up again. He’s always been highly thought of by his trainer and looked better than ever last time out; apart from a big weight, which he’s already proved he can carry – and he actually carries less weight than last year and arrives in better form – it’s difficult to come up with any negatives other than a short price. He jumps, travels and stays and is a major player granted the luck you need in running.
5. First Lieutenant – Bridesmaid sort of horse that has always seemed to find one too good throughout his career so far. Top class on his day though and did win a deserved Grade 1 at Aintree when winning the Bowl on the Mildmay course two years ago. That’s his only win since November 2011 though, but he has been placed at the highest level on several occasions in between. Largely disappointing this season however, including when well beaten over hurdles in his prep run for this a few weeks back. Still only ten but does look to have his best days behind him now and it’s very difficult to see him finally landing another elusive victory when pitched in to the hardest race of the year to win.
6. Balthazar King – Last year’s runner-up and has practically been wrapped in cotton wool since for another go. Ran a cracker last year having had a busy enough campaign mopping up in races of the Cross Country variety at Cheltenham before then going on to glory in France. This year’s campaign has been solely aimed at the National though and has not been seen since yet another Cross Country victory at Cheltenham back in November as connections felt he may have gone one better last year had he not run at the festival a few weeks earlier. Didn’t have the easiest of times in the race last year suffering interference a couple of times but has now completed on both attempts in the National, albeit he was a distant finisher in 2013. Old enough now at 11 but generally goes well fresh, is well equipped for the unique demands of this race and will see out the marathon trip better than most. Not a lot to dislike other than the fact he’s come up short twice before but he’s only a little worse off in the handicap than last year and crucially has been laid out for the race this time around, a definite contender.
7. Shutthefrontdoor – Long time ante-post favourite for the race on the assumption retiring champion jockey Tony McCoy would ride. Does have form in the locker to suggest that the gamble there’s been on him was not entirely McCoy related though that clearly is the main reason as there are others in here far better treated at much bigger prices. Was a top class Bumper horse in the 2011-2012 season and a useful hurdler in handicaps the following season but hadn’t really done much to get excited about over fences until he landed last season’s Irish Grand National under the weight of a typical gamble you would expect from his connections. Looks to have been a good renewal of that race and there should be no stamina concerns having finished a relatively close up sixth in the four-miler at Cheltenham last year. Only the one run this year when a good winner of a weak-looking Graduation Chase at Carlisle back in November so has clearly been laid out for this. Tends to go well fresh and connections certainly know how to get one ready for this, probably not deserving of being where he is in the market on bare form alone but other factors at play here and he does still rate a contender if having been overbet.
8. Pineau De Re – Last year’s impressive winner bidding for a historic repeat twelve months on. Higher in the handicap than last year but been given a similar campaign to last season and once again prepped – albeit less eye-catchingly this year – in the Pertemps over hurdles at Cheltenham last month. Now twelve it would be some effort to record back to back wins in the race but shrewd trainer will have him trained to the minute in his bid to do so. Had been in much better form last season than he’s been in this term but that Pertemps run probably saw him go with the most zest he has since last year’s National. We know he’ll handle everything the National throws at you and previous winners do have a stellar record of getting in the money again in subsequent years. Likely to find one or two too good this time around in reality, but no back number in spite of advancing years and hike up the weights, sound place claims.
9. Ballycasey – Surprisingly the only Willie Mullins entry this year and even more surprising that the one they’re relying on is the horse. Top class on his day but never won beyond 2m6f and never attempted a trip beyond 3m1f, been campaigned at the 2m4f distance this season and though there’s nothing to suggest he flat out won’t stay you’re kind of taking it on trust that he’ll truly see out this marathon test given that he’s not exactly been competitive this season over much shorter. Step up in trip could elicit improvement but he’s been very disappointing since his highly promising novice chase season last year. A Grade 1 winner and twice placed at that level he was last seen pulling up in the Ryanair at Cheltenham having never been a factor. A real curveball that he runs here but trainer is a genius so you can’t question his judgement and ambitious connections will surely be winning this race one day so anything they elect to run here has to be taken seriously. Tough to see him suddenly bouncing right back to his best in this environment but has the requisite class and not weighted out of it, also likely to be well backed on the day too given Ruby Walsh will be on board.
10. Spring Heeled – Fancied for this since front-running win in the Kim Muir at last season’s Cheltenham festival, the form of which has worked out well since. Respectable performances in both the Bet365 Gold Cup and the Galway Plate last year following that Cheltenham win but been kept for another spring campaign this time around given his preference for better ground. Travelled well for a long way on his reappearance in February before trailing in fourth of the five finishers and trainer’s horses not been in good form at all this season, but his campaign has been completely geared around this race and has a solid profile for the race. Rarely runs a bad race, stamina unlikely to be an issue and should be up on the pace and out of any trouble developing in behind. Definitely one for the short list.
11. Rebel Rebellion – Another of the Paul Nicholls battalion. Had been looking more likely to run in the Topham than in this before an impressive win at Newbury last month off a big weight. Made a couple of stopping errors early on there which he won’t be able to get away with quite so easily here, but those blunders only served to enhance the level of that performance. Mid-field finish in last season’s Topham over these fences has at least given him experience of Aintree’s unique demands but never won beyond 2m5f and only one from five at the track. Down the trainer’s pecking order but in the form of his life recently and deserves to take his chance. Probably not good enough to win so would be a surprise if not a complete shock if he was able to get his head in front, but if he jumps better and gets the trip there’s every chance he’ll give you a decent run for your money.
12. Dolatulo – Eight-year-old for trainer of the moment Warren Greatrex. Been campaigned over hurdles since the turn of the year and not exactly been in a rich vein of form, but landed the Rowland Meyrick over fences up at Wetherby on Boxing Day, which is a solid piece of form. Only eighth when sent off favourite for the Grand Sefton over these fences on Becher Day earlier in December and form has a win or bust look to it given he seems to either run really well or completely atrociously. Clearly has the talent though and crucially had a good sight of the National course. Though he doesn’t look especially well handicapped he’s the sort of horse it’s not hard to envisage outrunning his price if his occasionally sketchy jumping holds up.
13. Mon Parrain – Another for champion trainer Paul Nicholls and a horse with which the National fences will bring back some painful memories for many punters, thanks to him walking home from the elbow in the 2011 Topham on only his second UK start. Sent off favourite for that race which shows the high regard in which he was held, had his problems since though which has led to him being very lightly raced for a nine-year-old. Finally got off the mark with a win at Cheltenham last April but pulled up on first start this time around. Once again tackled the National fences in the Becher back in December and travelled well for a large part of the race but caught wide pretty much throughout and ended up down the field. Good win at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day over 3m2f which, although he was tiring late on, shows that he does stay and though a little disappointing was far from disgraced last time out in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Precociously talented at his best and likely to go well for a long way given his aptitude for the fences is a major plus. Off a good weight but whether he’ll truly see out this monster trip as well as others has to be a big question mark given that Topham capitulation a few years back.
14. Carlito Brigante – *NON RUNNER* Battle-hardened nine-year-old formerly owned by Gigginstown House Stud and trained by Gordon Elliot now with North East based trainer Karen McLintock. Has some strong pieces of form to his name from his hurdles days including placed efforts at Grade 1 level and a win in the ultra-competitive Coral Cup at Cheltenham back in 2011. Rather disappointing chase career saw Gigginstown allow him to leave, but the move seems to have brought about somewhat of resurgence and has been in better form, including a 17l romp at Kelso back in October. Missed the worst of the winter but then well beaten on comeback run at Kelso at the end of February. Has won over 3m2f but coming from the flat you’d have to question whether he’ll have the stamina to really get competitive for his National virgin trainer and likely to be paying the price for that wide-margin Kelso win in the handicap for some time. *NON RUNNER*
15. Night In Milan – Strong stayer for the Reveley team that won last year’s Grimthorpe Chase and was third in that same event this season at the end of February. Doesn’t win often but usually does so with authority, probably too inconsistent to recommend for something like this and looks high enough in the handicap considering. Been in decent form since the turn of the year though, usually jumps well and not without a chance of plodding on for the minor money if on a going day.
16. Rubi Light – Formerly top class Grade 1 horse that had somewhat lost his way over the last eighteen months before returning to winning ways this year winning on his last two starts. Twice a winner at Grade 2 level and placed in similar company on multiple occasions, finest hour came when winning the Grade 1 John Durkan back in December 2011. Has form with some of the best chasers of the last half century but stint in the wilderness of late must raise concerns of how much of his old ability he truly retains. On the best of his form he’s feasibly treated and if turning up at that level could go well but he’s never struck as the strongest stayer and never won beyond 2m4f.
17. The Druids Nephew – Top on handicapping gurus Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings for this race on the back of an impressive success in the big handicap chase on day one of the Cheltenham festival. Has joined Neil Mulholland this season from Andrew Turnell and looked to have a big race in him prior to that Cheltenham win having run well in the Hennessy and having previously pulled a mile clear with Sam Winner in a hot Cheltenham handicap at the Open meeting. Cheltenham festival win came in a typically strong race and now looks very well treated as a result given National weights don’t change after their announcement. Always been well thought of, generally jumps soundly (although can clout one) and should stay stoutly, looks to have plenty going for him and granted luck in running should have a major say in matters.
18. Cause of Causes – Former flat horse that won the four-miler at the Cheltenham festival last month under a brilliant ride from his amateur jockey. Was also second to Spring Heeled in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last season, proving his appetite for these major festival big handicaps. Established himself a tough handicap hurdler when joining National-winning Gordon Elliot for as a juvenile, although always fell short when pitched in at the highest level. Won a Ladbroke over timber though and placed in some other valuable handicaps to boot. Still quite lightly raced as a chaser and incredibly still only seven, has again filled the placings in some big handicap chases but that Cheltenham win last month was his first win over fences. Proved his stamina with that win but will once again likely be produced late and things could have gotten away from him up front by that point. Could still be well treated however considering and though yet to taste the Aintree fences his experience in big field handicaps should stand him in good stead even if Tony McCoy overlooking him has to be considered a negative and it’ll be tough as a novice.
19. Godsmejudge – Enjoyed a very good 2012-2013 season placing in Warwick’s Classic Chase and the Cheltenham four-miler before landing the Scottish National. That win at Ayr put him on many people’s radars for this last season but after a disappointing winter he ended up swerving this race and turned up to defend his crown in Scotland; ran another blinder that day to finish second to Al Co before another game effort in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown at the end of the season where he finished third. Not seen back out until January this year and not exactly been at his best on three starts to date, pulling up in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster and trailing in last of eleven on his prep for this over hurdles at Bangor. That of course was a prep though and the run that split those two rather tame efforts would give some hope to his supporters as he finished, an albeit distant, fifth in the Betbright Chase won by Rocky Creek. He’ll certainly stay, the end of the season is definitely the time to catch him and his current mark doesn’t look insurmountable, however lack of recent form could see him overlooked in the betting so he’s definitely one worth a second look.
20. Al Co – Well travelled Peter Bowen trained ten-year-old formerly with Jonjo O’Neill. Won last year’s Scottish National in a 40/1 shocker from Godsmejudge but not exactly done much to write home about since, although has been campaigned with this in mind. Does have good bits of form in his back catalogue however and seems to come alive on better ground but prep or not he was disappointing when pulling up in the Becher on his first try over these fences back in December, though the ground was probably softer than he’d really like that day. His two runs since the turn of the year have both been over hurdles in line with the ‘traditional’ National prep and though he travelled with more zest than Godsmejudge did at Bangor last month it is difficult to see him adding a Grand National to his Scottish equivalent. A sounder surface may elicit some improvement in which case he’s no back number, but this is much deeper and harder than anything he’s tackled previously.
21. Monbeg Dude – Enigmatic talent that is best remembered for an improbable victory in the Welsh National two seasons ago when a Paul Carberry master class in the saddle saw him come from last to first in spite of several blunders on the way round. Was reasonably well supported for this last season as a result but predictably his style of racing left him with a lot to do and he eventually could only pick off tired horses for seventh. Still not a bad effort though and the experience will have been valuable. He’s been in fine fettle since too never finishing out of the places this season until his last run, having finished fourth in the Hennessy behind Many Clouds as well as filling the same spot in this season’s Welsh National and taking third in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. Last seen in the festival chase won by The Druids Nephew when only midfield, but he’s a Grade 3 winner and missed this year before last to take his chance in the Gold Cup. For all that ability though he’ll once again be ridden for luck from the back which will leave him vulnerable to any mayhem that develops in front and leave him a lot to do at the tail end of things. If he’s still standing he’ll definitely be staying on from the elbow though and if so could once again grab some valuable place money.
22. Corrin Wood – Once well thought of grey for National-winning trainer Donald McCain. Still lightly raced but took solid hurdles form (has an admittedly distant second to Gold Cup winner Coneygree over hurdles to his name) to another level over the larger obstacles winning his first three chase starts last season. Very disappointing though when last of the finishers in the RSA at the Cheltenham festival and been struggling somewhat since. Flickers of last season’s early form when third to Dolatulo in the Roland Meyrick at the end of last year but pulled up last time out when sent off a well backed favourite for the Peter Marsh at Haydock. Has won on good ground but majority of his best efforts have come in more testing conditions and his trainer, though synonymous with this race, has not been having the best of seasons. No doubting the talent was once there and he’s only eight so time for him to bounce back, but it would take a huge leap of faith to back him in this as things stand.
23. The Rainbow Hunter – Kim Bailey eleven-year-old that has the dubious distinction of having unseated in this for the last two seasons. Incredibly it was the same fence (Canal Turn) that put a stop to his afternoon both times but he can be forgiven last year to some extent having been hampered. Had plenty of racing in his career and in addition to time being against him he’s also winless since last January. Only raced once since last year’s mishap in this when pulled up in the Betbright Chase having never been a factor and although the real pick of his form would give him half a chance it looks unlikely that he’ll figure even if you can get past his dismal record in the race.
24. Saint Are – Ninth two years ago adding to a good record at Aintree where he’s won twice and placed twice previously. Lost his way rather badly following that good effort in this as a seven-year-old however and though he was entered for the race again last year fell so far down the handicap that he missed the cut. Instead he contested the preceding chase on the card and fell having disappointingly pulled up on his previous start in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Has since left Tim Vaughan to join Tom George and the change of scenery seems to have brought about a resurgence. Ran well enough off a 224 day absence on first start of this season when a remote third to Sam Winner and The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham before a staying on third to Oscar Time in the Becher over the National fences in December. He once again took third spot behind Mon Parrain at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day before winning as he needed to in a poor Catterick handicap in order to get his mark back up to get in here. He’s yet to be out of the places since joining Tom George, but he is now back up the weights as a result. That said, he’s had a good spin round here before, goes well at the track and looks to be in the form of his life. Definitely looks to be worth a second glance at an each-way price.
25. Across The Bay – Donald McCain trained eleven-year-old that seems to love life when he gets out in front in this race. Was leading them a merry dance at the head of affairs twelve months ago when all but carried out by a rogue Tidal Bay but still managed to recover, get round and finish in front of a few of the other finishers to end up fourteenth. Filled the same spot in the race two years ago as well, when he also looked to be enjoying things on the front end before encountering more bad luck in the form of loose horses. Formerly with Noel Meade in Ireland where he was a useful hurdler he does have some good bits of form since joining his current trainer. He’s without a win since December 2013 though and his form this season is pretty uninspiring. He was last seen in the Kim Muir when going alright for a long way before once again being deserted by luck and brought down. His trainer’s been out of form but if there’s one name you want in the trainer column next to an old boy for this race it’s McCain. It’s questionable whether he truly stays but if he gets that glint in his eye again that this race seems to bring about and he can finally get some luck in running he could go well at a big price.
26. Tranquil Sea – Thirteen-year-old former winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, formerly with Edward O’Grady now with Warren Greatrex. Top class on his day having won a Grade 1 and multiple Grade 2s but this does seem a strange point in his career to tackle this race for the first time. Rolled back the years to land a good Veteran’s Chase at Doncaster last February but that’s his only win since switching yards. Went well over these fences when sixth in the Topham two years ago but has largely been disappointing since. Fifth behind Soll at Newbury when last seen in February it would likely take a debacle of Foinavon proportions to see him back to winning ways here, though nothing is beyond the realm of possibility in the Grand National and trainer is enjoying a landmark year.
27. Oscar Time – Oldest horse in the field at fourteen, but one that’s no stranger to these famous fences, nor is his amateur jockey whose record round the National course is nothing sort of exemplary. Always been at home in this sphere and bought by connections specifically for a tilt at this race, rewarded them by finishing gallant second in 2011 before hitting the places again in 2013 when fourth at the ripe old age of twelve. Spent a fair bit of time pointing since but won a couple of Hunter Chases last May before an astonishing win over these fences in the Becher in December. Looked a fraction of his advancing years that day beating a number of these rivals in the process and still remains feasibly handicapped. His age led to connections not committing immediately to this race but with their other potential hope not qualifying and the old spark reportedly being shown at home (owner is also trainer) he takes his chance. Travelled well for a long way on his prep run in a Veteran’s Chase at Doncaster before tiring on the run in but it’s Aintree that seems to bring him to life these days. It’d be no surprise to see him go well for a long way but it is a monumental task at his age and though this is the race for fairytales it does seem unlikely.
28. Bob Ford – Trained by Rebecca Curtis, who sent Teaforthree out to be third in 2013. Has done quite a lot of racing in a short space of time but has some good novice hurdle and novice chase form to his name. Hadn’t entirely looked at home over staying trips until winner of controversial West Wales National at Ffos Las at end of January when he was for all intents and purposes the only finisher. That was in an utter bog though and he was pulled up on his first run from his new mark on his last start in the Midlands Grand National last month. Will clearly stay but whether he’ll be up to the pace of this race remains to be seen as he clearly thrives in bottomless ground. Looks up against it from his highest handicap mark to date in a race of this depth without ground to suit.
29. Super Duty – Formerly with Donald McCain, now with Ian Williams. Was really good novice hurdler winning four of first five (only loss coming when falling), before finishing second to Simonsig in a Grade 2 at this meeting in 2012. Began novice chase campaign in similar fashion, finishing in the first two on first five starts over fences, including a 13l romp at Cheltenham and an agonising second in the Kim Muir at the festival that season. Not exactly built on that promise since and missed all of 2014 through injury. First couple of runs for new trainer haven’t exactly inspired either and was last seen finishing a distant seventh in the Grimthorpe. If able to rediscover the form of his early career you certainly couldn’t rule him out but that looks unlikely on recent evidence and you couldn’t be confident in his stamina with him never having won beyond 2m5f.
30. Wyck Hill – Bought by J P McManus with this race in mind back in 2013 but picked up injury when disappointing in what is now the Betbright Chase and missed the race. Did get a run over these fences that year though when finishing down the field in the Becher won by Chance du Roy and ended 2013 pulling up in a typically gruelling Welsh National. Won the marathon Eider (4m1f) last February though to gain an amount of recompense for connections and then finished sixth in the Midlands Grand National. Not seen again until the turn of the year and comeback hurdles run had promise, but fell last time out when bidding for a repeat in the Eider. 8lbs higher here than when winning the Eider last season and the fact that in all the talk of what Tony McCoy would ride he was never mentioned is hardly a nod towards his chances. Has plenty of experience in these big marathon handicaps however and has had a taste of the fences, but although he’ll stay he doesn’t look particularly well treated and suspicion of whether he’s quite good enough remains.
31. Gas Line Boy – Owned by Grand National-winning jockey Mick Fitzgerald’s Racing Club syndicate and trained by Phillip Hobbs. Was only eighth in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham festival last season but has put up a couple of good performances this term winning at Exeter before romping home at Haydock beating subsequent Welsh National winner Emperor’s Choice by 13l. Was himself pulled up in that Welsh National though and then only managed fourth at Haydock in the Grand National Trial on his most recent start. Will stay but has a tendency to make jumping errors and best form is on an easier surface. Hasn’t experienced the demands of Aintree before and looks to now be paying the price for that Haydock romp in the handicap. Not a complete no-hoper by any means but looks down trainer’s pecking order and up against it all things considered.
32. Chance du Roy – Another for Philip Hobbs and last year’s sixth. Ran well enough last year just getting going too late and came in to the race having won the Becher with a battling performance. Was fifth in the Becher this year behind Oscar Time adding to his good record over the Aintree fences, having also finished second in a Topham a few year’s back (also finished ninth in a Topham previously). Only fifth in a Veteran’s Chase at Exeter last time out but the form of the race couldn’t be working out any better with the four horses that beat home that day all having come out and won since including the winner Soll. Getting on a bit now at eleven but clearly goes well here, has been campaigned well to get in off a lower mark than last year and though he probably doesn’t quite stay strongly enough to win has to have sound place claims.
33. Portrait King – Irish raider for Maurice Phelan that won the Eider in 2012 when a well backed favourite. Disappointed later that same year in the Scottish National and form has been hit and miss since having missed over a year and a half’s racing through injury. Pulled up in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but been in better form since the turn of the year winning at Punchestown and twice finishing second. Could only manage ninth when returning to Newcastle for this year’s Eider though and his British handicap mark looks prohibitive now. A definite stayer, jumps well and relatively lightly raced for a ten-year-old but never tackled Aintree before, seems to prefer easy going and in reality looks to have a lot on his plate to get involved off this mark.
34. Owega Star – Peter Fahey-trained eight-year-old that was a decent if unspectacular hurdler. Been better since going chasing and placed at Grade 3 level previously. Winless since October 2013 but has put in a couple of good performances in some valuable handicaps this season. Not beaten far when second in the Troytown at Navan back in November and was then fifth in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Disappointing when a well beaten favourite on his most recent start and though not ground dependent has never won beyond 2m6f and is still quite inexperienced as a chaser for something like this, in spite of some good past efforts in big fields. Mark looks high enough as well and would seem to have it all to do to get competitive here.
35. River Choice – Twelve-year-old French raider trained by Richard Chotard. Never run in the UK before but a relatively consistent chaser across the channel. Difficult to know what his form amounts to really, but a good winner in November over 2m2f although he has never landed a staying chase in spite of a few attempts, pulling up over 3m3f in November and only finishing sixth over 3m5f in the Grande Steeplechase De Paris in May (Soll pulled up). Old enough at twelve and question marks over so many aspects of his game. Be some story if he could do it but it looks unlikely on form alone without the other considerations and European raiders from anywhere other than Ireland don’t have a great record in the race.
36. Court By Surprise – Emma Lavelle ten-year-old that’s a good horse on his day but hasn’t run since November when second in the controversial Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton won by The Young Master. Ran out a good winner on only other start this season back in October and though will come here off a long break does go well fresh. Narrow second over 3m5f in the London National at Sandown last season and has beaten Night In Milan over 3m previously too so will stay. All career wins to date have come on good to soft so quicker ground would be a negative. Has tended to struggle in the better handicaps and mark now looks high enough – that Badger Ales run would give you hope, but this a different ball game entirely and looks up against it.
37. Alvarado – Placed last year finishing fourth and represents owners that have had a horse placed in the race for the last six years. Stayed on well last year to grab fourth having had to come from a long way back and though tactics will probably be similar this time around he gets in off just 1lb higher than twelve months ago. Just the one run this season when fifth in a Veteran’s Chase at Doncaster in February which was clearly a pipe-opener but never tends to have that many starts each season. Has bits and pieces of decent form to his name, including a big handicap win at Cheltenham at the Open meeting in 2013 and no question he’ll stay. Not ground dependent either and should not be underestimated based on last year’s run. Certainly one you could see once again running on late for a place having been targeted at the race from the second he crossed the line last year.
38. Soll – Really interesting contender for National-winning trainer David Pipe. Lightly raced for a ten-year-old but has been well travelled having previously been with John Quinn, Willie Mullins and Jo Hughes. Eighth in Bobs Worth’s Hennessy on only his fourth chase start he then ran in to seventh here behind Aurora’s Encore two years ago. Never quite built on that good effort whilst with Hughes, but now two from two for David Pipe. Form of his first win since moving to Pond House couldn’t have worked out any better with the three horses that followed him home all having come out and won since, then came out and won a Veteran’s Chase at Newbury himself once weights for this were out, meaning he now looks very well handicapped indeed coming here a much better horse than he was two years ago but off only 5lb higher. Is a monster to look at and we know he’ll stay, he also ran well enough in the Topham last season so has plenty of experience of the fences. Has all the hallmarks of a typical Pipe plot and everything looks in place for a big run.
39. Ely Brown – Good hurdler for Charlie Longsdon (beat Gold Cup fourth Holywell over timber in 2013) that made a good start as a novice chaser last season before flopping in a good renewal of the Reynoldstown at Ascot last February. Off for almost a year after that returning at the end of January this year when pulled up over hurdles at Wetherby. Has won twice at Aintree previously but it’s incredibly difficult to know where he is fitness-wise after only one tame hurdles effort in fourteen months and it would be a monumental achievement to even get round here off only three chase starts.
40. Royale Knight – Another for last year’s winning trainer Dr. Richard Newland. Like Pineau De Re formerly trained in Ireland before crossing the Irish Sea to join Dr. Newland having never really shown much form over hurdles before the switch. Typical improvement brought out of him since joining new trainer racking up a four-timer over hurdles before being sent chasing. Enjoyed a good summer over the larger obstacles in 2013 and landed the Borders National at Kelso over 4m in December of that year. Placed in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January last year and then placed in the Highland National at Ayr this time last year. Won the Durham National by 17l in October last year and been prepped for this over hurdles since. Will certainly stay, goes well on Spring ground and definitely one to consider at a price given shrewd trainer.
Verdict:
A slight sense of déjà vu here as for the second year in a row it’s ROCKY CREEK that’s going to be the main hope in the race. I won’t delve in to the reasons why again because they’re covered in pretty strong detail above but he was jumping like a stag twelve months ago and looked like he was going to do us proud for a long way. He just got tired there and faded to fifth but he hadn’t been seeing his races out, the way he powered home at Kempton last time out though suggests that the breathing operation he received over the summer has sorted that problem out and if it genuinely has then he’s got to go close again arriving arguably in better form and better handicapped than he was this time last year. To me he should be favourite, but thanks to the circus surrounding Tony McCoy, he’s not which means even at his current price he’s still value.
Of course it’s the National and anything could, and probably will, happen so we need some back-ups and Spring Heeled looks to also be poised to go well. He’s been targeted at this since putting in a bold show in the Kim Muir last season, he’s sensibly been kept off winter ground and though the stable aren’t exactly flying he looks the right sort of horse for this race.
I tipped Saint Are ante-post for this race last season and he fell so far down the handicap he didn’t even get in, he’s a better horse this season and will get to take his chance again having run very well for such a young horse two years ago. He’s got a good record round Aintree and a particularly good record at this festival, he can improve on his effort from 2013 and make the frame.
Lastly it’s Soll, a horse that has also completed the race previously but comes here in much better form and even better handicapped this time around, his new trainer is an expert at plotting one up for a race like this and this huge beast of a horse can power his way in to the places as well.
If you’re playing five places as any self-respecting bookie should be paying out on then you could do worse than chuck in Across The Bay at a price. There’s nothing to look at in his form that suggests he should be getting near them here but he’s been bang out of luck on his two tries in this race and seems to come alive in it for some reason. He was having a ball at the front end before fate took over last year and he can gain some recompense twelve months on by finishing closer up.
If you’re looking for the winner though it has to be Rocky Creek, he’s got everything in his favour and granted some good luck in running he should prove very difficult to beat.
1. Rocky Creek
2. Spring Heeled
3. Saint Are
4. Soll
Recommendations:
Rocky Creek 0.5pt each-way @ 10/1 (Betfair Sportsbook) [NRNB, 5 Places]
Spring Heeled 0.25pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet365, Sky Bet) [NRNB, 5 Places]
Saint Are 0.25pt each-way @ 33/1 (Sky Bet) [NRNB, 5 Places]
Soll 0.25pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet Victor) [NRNB, 6 Places]
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