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| Conti-nued Dominance? - Don't Give up on Silviniaco Conti before the King George. |
If the likely protagonists all do in fact turn up at Kempton on Boxing Day we could be in for one of the best renewals in recent memory (insert your own Christmas pun here).
The common consensus at the moment seems to be that are witnessing the dawning of another era of chasing superstars. I was only just getting in to racing when Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded et al were at their peak and it was kind of lost on me at the time just how lucky we were to have so many shining lights at the top of their game at the same time.
We’ve not exactly been starved of talent since, but the last twelve months or so has seen a huge influx of potential superstars to the chasing game and although we’ve yet to get that big showdown where all their paths cross, the King George could be just that, and as a result there is definitely some serious value in the ante-post market at present.
We’ll start the top with the mercurial talent that has been favourite for the race since tearing the JLT field apart by 15l at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.
Vautour had long been heralded as a special horse by connections and after an impressive start to his chase career followed by a blip; he finally showed the doubters exactly why Messrs Walsh, Mullins and Ricci had been waxing lyrical about him when destroying a good field in scintillating fashion at Cheltenham.
On the morning of that race I backed him at a big price for the King George and have been wandering round like the smuggest man on planet smug all summer as a result. That smirk was wiped off my face on Saturday though as I watched on the big screen at Haydock as Vautour made his seasonal reappearance at Ascot.
Alright he won and looked very much in need of the run – as so many of Willie Mullins’ horses have first time up this year – he jumped out to his left and made heavy weather of beating the admittedly solid Ptit Zig in receipt of 5lbs.
The bookmakers were as unimpressed as me and although still favourite he has drifted in the betting, and still not to a price I could recommend getting involved at even though he should be a much better horse at Kempton come 26th December.
I’d love nothing more than to see him shut up everyone who claims he won’t stay the trip of the Gold Cup or even the King George and won’t go in the likely testing ground he’ll encounter at Kempton, but the fact remains he has to prove it and his current price does not reflect that fact.
While Vautour was blotting his copybook slightly on Saturday, Cue Card was continuing the renaissance theme of the jumps season so far by winning his second Betfair Chase.
In doing so he became the top staying chaser this side of the Irish Sea and set himself for a crack at the million pound bonus being offered for landing jump racing’s Triple Crown.
I’ll hold my hands up at this point and admit Cue Card is a horse I’ve never warmed to and I find the at times nauseating coverage the horse gets – from Channel 4 Racing in particular – to be even more of a turn off.
Even through my bias I can admit that he’s a star though and he’s enjoyed a wonderful career in spite of injuries and set back after set back. What might have been had he stayed sound will always be a question mark when he’s discussed but this year he’s doing his best to make sure his legacy is more one of what rather than what if.
That said, winning a poor Charlie Hall against a set of sub par domestic chasers in receipt of weight from the majority of the field and then winning a five-runner Betfair Chase against mostly the same horses – and Silviniaco Conti – doesn’t make him the world beater some are proclaiming.
He seems to have shed his never runs two good races in a row tag now but I need to see him do it against the best from Ireland as well before I become a believer.
I’m not prepared to write of Silviniaco Conti just yet (more on that in a minute) so an easy defeat of a dual Betfair Chase and King George winner is an impressive feat, but it’s still tough to know if Conti simply underperformed on Saturday or if Cue Card was just sensational.
We know the also rans from the Betfair Chase are not up to the standard of these two horses and the King George will tell us just how far ahead of them and possibly the best Ireland has to offer Cue Card is.
I still have my doubts he’ll do it but will be the first to admit how wrong I was if he does because racing needs these big stars and this will be one hell of a story if the resurgence is real.
Silviniaco Conti was firmly put in his place against Cue Card at the weekend and there were no excuses to suggest he should be able to turn that form around at Kempton but with the score between them now 4-3 in the latter’s favour it’s clear that on any given day there really isn’t that much between them.
It could be that Conti is now regressing and has had his day, while a stop start career and missing two Cheltenham Festival’s means Cue Card is a fresher horse in spite of his advancing years and Colin Tizzard’s horse is now just the superior animal full stop.
With only one race to go off this year to suggest that though 12/1 about a dual winner of the race seems an overreaction by the bookies, especially given how brilliant Conti looked round Kempton last year.
We know Cheltenham isn’t his track, but Kempton certainly is and with headgear to go on I wouldn’t be as quick to draw a line through the defending champ as some have been. He looks fantastic each-way value given doubts remain around the majority of the leading contenders and the likely make-up of the race.
I reference the make-up of the race because if Gold Cup winner Coneygree was supplemented for the race rather than heading to Ireland for the Lexus we could see a blood bath in behind like we saw in the Feltham round the same course and distance last year.
Okay, he was galloping novices in to mistakes last year but I remain convinced that no horse can go the gallop Coneygree does and jump with the same accuracy, which is why it’s such a shame he won’t be running in the Hennessy on Saturday as I think he would have won and won well.
I also think he’ll win the Gold Cup again if he stays healthy and would be the likely winner of this were he to turn up, but there’s no guarantee he does. Paddy Power’s with a run 5/1 looks mighty tempting therefore.
Given he may go to Ireland for the Lexus though it’s tough to get an accurate read on how the King George will pan out exactly, the fractions Silviniaco Conti or Vautour would probably set up front are far more sedate than Coneygree would which would mean the emphasis on jumping would be less pronounced albeit still important.
The most solid option at the top of the market therefore is Don Cossack because although prone to an error now and again he’s swept aside all before him for the last eighteen months or so, save for one blip at Cheltenham in the Ryanair.
We know he’ll stay, we know he’s fit and we know he’ll handle the ground, yet he’s still somewhat unheralded in spite of his recent achievements. His trainer Gordon Elliot has done a fantastic job with him and it would be just reward were his patience to pay-off with a huge win here and/or in the Gold Cup.
If Coneygree did run here I would have a slight worry that Don Cossack might throw in an iffy jump on the way round but if he doesn’t turn up then the horse affectionately known as The Don rates the safest bet at the top of the market.
Safest doesn’t equate value though and as the biggest priced of the top horses looking likely to run at this point and as winner of the last two renewals Silviniaco Conti is the outstanding each-way bet of the field at the moment.
Okay he’s not been at his best this season as yet, but he’s hardly been disgraced and if headgear can get him back to the brilliance he showed round Kempton twelve months ago when this eagerly anticipated race rolls around, then he has to have a leading chance of making it three in the King George, let alone hitting the frame.
Paul Nicholls also has Saphir Du Rheu and Ptit Zig prominent in the betting but you would think that the race will come too soon for the former after having had to lug top weight round Newbury in a race as gruelling as the Hennessy, win, lose or draw this Saturday.
While Ptit Zig, though clearly an improved horse, has twice been soundly beaten by Vautour and is probably just not at the same level as the aforementioned stars.
That said, Vautour is French for vulture and the vultures have certainly been circling the favourite since Saturday, Coneygree may not even run and Cue Card needs to confirm his resurrection is not just smoke and mirrors.
Silviniaco Conti has been there, done that and came on to win the race two years ago after having been firmly beaten in the Betfair Chase by Cue Card, it doesn’t require too great a leap of faith to think he may be able to do so again back at the scene of his two greatest wins given his master trainer.
If Coneygree does turn up at Kempton though, in behind they could all be playing for simply staying upright and getting round.
Recommendation(s):
Silviniaco Conti 0.5pt each way @ 12/1 [1/4 odds] (William Hill)
Coneygree – with a run 1pt win @ 5/1 (Paddy Power)
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