Although there is currently a favourite for the race that looks like going off at extremely prohibitive odds, Saturday’s Irish Derby looks to be a mouth-watering renewal.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: Camelot is more than likely going to win, but as we saw last weekend with Black Caviar’s heart-stopping short margin win in the Diamond Jubilee, being long odds on doesn’t always guarantee a ten length romp… Unless your name is Frankel that is.
Camelot is undoubtedly a hugely talented horse and it will be great for Racing if he were to land his third classic of the season en route to hopefully landing the Triple Crown in the St. Leger.
Camelot’s Epsom success earlier this month indicated that, as expected, the step-up to middle distances was really going to be when he came in to his own, not that he’d been bad at a mile.
If he is in anywhere near the same form as he was that day, it will take a Herculean effort from one of his opponents on Saturday to dethrone him.
In spite of his clear-cut chance, Camelot is just one of several Aidan O’Brien runners in the race, although I’m sure we can expect a few of them to drop out before the race.
Astrology just failed to hang on for second behind Camelot in the Derby and went off a short-priced favourite at Royal Ascot in the King Edward VII Stakes last week only to disappoint hugely and I’d be surprised to see him trotted back out again so soon. However if he were to take his chance, on the Epsom form you’d have to think he’d be at the front of the chasing pack behind his all-conquering stable mate.
Imperial Monarch is another very talented horse from Ballydoyle and the general consensus after the French ‘Derby’ was that he was the unofficial winner, having had to come right across the track to get a run having been virtually stopped in his tracks with all the scrimmaging that went on when push came to shove in the race. Imperial Monarch flew home that day and really caught the eye, but whether he’s good enough to serve it up to Camelot remains to be seen.
The remaining Ballydoyle prospective runners are Daddy Long Legs, Father Of Science and Learn and they currently occupy that order in the betting. Surely if one of these were to be a starter on Saturday they would almost certainly be saddled with pace-making duties for their more fancied stable mates which would diminish their chance considerably.
That said, time and time again these supposed sacrificial lambs that Ballydoyle have sent out have clung on for a place and even managed to hang on for a win, though in this illustrious company the latter is extremely unlikely I would say. Of the three, Daddy Long Legs’ UAE Derby win at Meydan back in March is probably the strongest bit of form, though Learn has been consistently running decent races in good company since his race course debut a little over a year ago.
With Ballydoyle responsible for over half the field at this stage, John Oxx also has half of the remaining entrants in his yard, although he has today confirmed that Chester Vase third Call To Battle will miss the race with a foot abscess.
Oxx still has a strong hand to play in the race though with both Born To Sea and Akeed Mofeed intended runners.
Having been at Royal Ascot on the Tuesday last week I can confirm first hand that Born To Sea was looking fantastic that day and appeared to be crying out for further than a mile when a strong-finishing fourth in the St. James’s Palace. He’s certainly bred to succeed over a mile and a half, though having never tackled further than a mile before it is far from guaranteed.
Being a half brother to Sea The Stars, Born To Sea was always going to have a lot of hype around him and seemed to be worth it when landing a listed race on his debut. He’s arguably disappointed since then but he has been running against the very best and the way he finished last week certainly gave the impression a step-up in trip might see further improvement.
As long as the ground doesn’t come up too soft and last week didn’t take too much out of him we could see a performance more akin to his sibling this time around and at the current prices I think he looks a tad overpriced, representing some value.
Oxx’s other runner is the one I have to admit I’m more excited about finally seeing on a race course as a three year old though.
Akeed Mofeed was expected to have a very good three year old campaign this year but injury has sadly kept him off the track until now. He was last seen finishing second to David Livingston on heavy ground in the Beresford Stakes last year but Oxx is keeping the faith with him and is confident that if his fitness holds up he can run a big race.
I’ve been a fan from the start and had him down as my ante-post pick for the Epsom equivalent at the start of the season, obviously events can conspire against you but I’m hoping Akeed Mofeed can live up to both mine and John Oxx’s expectations at the weekend – I’m not saying he’s going to beat Camelot but I’m hopeful of a big run.
The final two possible contenders are Jim Bolger’s Light Heavy and Dermot Weld’s Speaking Of Which, both of whom bring good form in to the race.
Light Heavy has won three on the spin now, first beating the ill-fated Furner’s Green to break his maiden before going on to land the Ballysax Stakes and the Derrinstown Derby Trial. He’s rated lower than all but one of the Ballydoyle runners who have got a rating however so it’s difficult to envisage him being good enough to land a telling blow here.
Speaking Of Which on the other hand comes in to the race the highest rated horse behind Camelot on the back of an impressive 9 length victory over Soon at The Curragh last month.
It always pays to keep a close eye on Dermot Weld’s runners but my idea of the way to play this race in light of the amount of the market Camelot is taking out would be each-way bets on the two John Oxx runners.
Akeed Mofeed looked a hugely exciting talent last year and can hopefully put his injury problems behind him and make a bold bid, while Born To Sea has shaped as though middle distances will see further improvement and is bred to succeed at the highest level. If we end up with a few coming out of the race before Saturday then each way money will only be paid on the first two but I still think that at the current prices both these horses are over-priced and represent great each way value.
Recommendation(s):
Akeed Mofeed each-way @ 16/1 (Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James)
Born To Sea each-way @ 20/1 (Boylesports, Paddy Power)
Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Best Odds:
Camelot 1/5
Imperial Monarch 9/1
Speaking Of Which 12/1
Akeed Mofeed 16/1
Light Heavy 16/1
Born To Sea 20/1
Astrology 20/1
Daddy Long Legs 25/1
Father Of Science 33/1
Learn 66/1
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