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| Dream Team - Can Gosden, Buick and Nathaniel land more Group 1 Glory? |
Won last year by the superstar So You Think after an epic battle with Snow Fairy, the Irish version of the Champion Stakes never quite attracts the calibre of field that our equivalent does but this year’s renewal has the hallmarks of being a fascinating affair.
Currently heading the market, and rightly so, is Eclipse winner and narrow King George second Nathaniel, who has ducked a showdown with Frankel in favour of crossing the Irish Sea for his next shot at Group 1 glory.
Ultra-consistent at this level and better than ever this season it’s hard to see past John Gosden’s stable star. He was beaten only a whisker by one of the world’s leading fillies Danedream in the King George and once again showed all the heart that we’ve come to expect from him even in defeat.
Until his Eclipse win I’d always thought him to be better at 1m4f than at 1m2f but like Frankel I now believe he can operate at the highest level over both distances.
Super-fast ground could potentially be a problem on Saturday, especially as one or two of the others perhaps possess more speed than Nathaniel but I would expect at least a bit of give in the ground and any sort of stamina test is only going to play in to Nathaniel’s hands.
William Buick’s dashing over from Haydock to take the ride on his old partner and the stars look to be aligned for another Gosden-Buick Group 1 victory in a landmark season that seems to be showing no signs of slowing down as we build towards a final showdown with Frankel on Champion’s Day.
If Nathaniel is to be beaten on Saturday Ed Dunlop’s super-mare Snow Fairy looks to be the one with the best chance of claiming his notable scalp.
She showed no signs of rust when returning from a ten month-plus absence to land the spoils in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville last month and of course gave So You Think that great battle in this race twelve months ago.
In between she has been placed in the Arc and our Champion Stakes and remains one of the top horses in training with an incredible amount of prize money to her name.
I’ve already highlighted her as my value bet for the Arc, for which I’m hoping she’ll line up again, and although she’s still not a confirmed starter on Saturday either if the ground was to come up quick you’d have to say she’s the better bet at the prices than the favourite.
One stat going against Snow Fairy on Saturday is that Ryan Moore has ridden her for every one of her Group 1 wins to date and as he is out injured she’ll have a different pilot this time around. You can’t really get a better replacement than Frankie Dettori though and if the ride he gave her in this last year is anything to go by he looks more than capable of getting the best out of her.
It’s a big surprise to see an Irish Group 1 with Aidan O’Brien not having one of the first two in the betting, but such is the class of this year’s field for the Irish Champion Stakes that has transpired to be the case.
The Ballydoyle maestro does have a considerable arsenal with which to go war though and his potentially six-pronged attack is headed by St. Nicholas Abbey.
Made to look ordinary by Frankel last time out in the Juddmonte, he most certainly isn’t ordinary but has found Nathaniel too good already on a number of occasions and although he’s also been consistent at this level again this year there’s no real evidence with which to suggest he’ll turn that form around here.
Race tactics have played a part in a couple of defeats this season but in the Juddmonte he was sent to the front much sooner than in the past and although he was narrowly pipped for second by Farhh in a photo it probably would have won him the race were it not for a certain horse named Frankel.
If they make better use of him here again then he could be dangerous but he’ll still do well to topple one of the aforementioned two.
Ballydoyle also have an interesting contender in Imperial Monarch, representing the classic generation. He looked all class when winning the Grand Prix De Paris last time out and many have been eagerly awaiting his next run.
He’s still quite tough to assess having had his two biggest races to date in France but it’s interesting he’s pitched in here when also so prominent in the betting for next weekend’s St. Leger and he gets a very handy weight allowance from the older horses. If you’re looking for a dark horse in this field then look no further than Imperial Monarch.
Of the remaining Ballydoyle contingent you’d expect whatever else is run to be sacrificed as pacemaker; Treasure Beach does have top class form in the bag but doesn’t appear to have trained on from three to four and can’t seriously be considered on the back of the poor season he’s had to date.
Of the remainder, Born To Sea has been somewhat disappointing this season all things considered and really can’t be factored in to calculations until he shows something more and Famous Name is an admirable performer but has done all his winning below Group 1 level and will surely be outclassed back up to the highest level again.
Ribblesdale winner Princess Highway could be the outsider most likely to get involved in the finish on the back of her Royal meeting win when she accounted for high class filly The Fugue by 6l. She was a little disappointing in the Irish Oaks last time out but the soft ground looked to find her out that day, back on better ground and getting lumps of weight she can’t be ruled out completely from running a big race.
Realistically though the bookies look to have it spot on as the top four in the market would appear to hold the best chances of victory on Saturday and, boring as it may be, the favourite is the one I’ll want to be with come 5.45pm.
Irish Champion Stakes – Best Odds:
Nathaniel 13/8
Snow Fairy 11/4
St. Nicholas Abbey 6/1
Imperial Monarch 7/1
Princess Highway 10/1
Famous Name 16/1
Born To Sea 20/1
Treasure Beach 25/1
Daddy Long Legs 33/1
Light Heavy 33/1
Windsor Palace 100/1
Robin Hood 200/1
Recommendation:
Back Nathaniel @ 13/8 (Sportingbet, Bet Victor, Blue Square, 888Sport, Bodog)
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