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| Date With Destiny - The Legend of Camelot can be cemented in the St. Leger |
In all honesty the classic generation across the globe this year looks to have been a somewhat weak one and Camelot has stood head and shoulders above most of his peers.
How good he is we won’t quite know until he takes on the older horses for the first time but here back in against his fellow three-year-olds once again he looks impossible to oppose.
Given the prices opposing him is what the punters are going to have to do; all the while sentimentally hoping he can make history.
In taking Camelot on though we’ll have to clutch at the factors that could feasibly conspire to get the wonder-horse beaten; and above all else it’s the distance that is an unknown with him.
He certainly looks as though he can stay a bit further than he’s raced to date, given that he hardly looked like he was coming to the end of his rope when winning the Derby but his breeding doesn’t scream stayer (although Fame And Glory has proved Montjeu’s do stay long distances).
If the ground slows up at all, which it could given the forecast in the North over the coming days, as he showed in the Irish Derby when toiling a little on bottomless ground he’s hardly invincible if the ground is softer than ideal and ground combined with trip could see his stamina pushed to the limit.
All told though he should win against, what in my opinion looks a weak field from a weak generation, and it’d be astounding if Ballydoyle hadn’t prepared him for every ground eventuality that could occur.
Nothing is for certain though and with him taking a huge chunk out of the market and enough runners to pay three places there is a great deal of each way value to plunder.
Main Sequence has to be the first horse to talk about in that bracket given his Derby second behind the favourite and he’s looked unlucky in his two runs since then, he’s clearly top class but bookies love an unlucky horse and at 8/1 he’s not exactly value each-way behind Camelot.
He didn’t get the strong pace he needs in the Voltigeur which should be assured here so an improvement is expected, but as with Camelot the main weakness you could tout with him is the extended trip – will he stay the extra distance? 8/1 looks too short to take that chance to me.
I’ll be amazed if Imperial Monarch runs in the race, in spite of still being in there at the time of writing, I wouldn’t mind betting he’s been left in to guard against something happening to Camelot, so Ballydoyle would still have a top class runner in the Leger if the worst occurred.
I think they’d be mad to throw another Group 1 winner in there against Camelot and if they were to use him as a pacemaker – he has made all before so not beyond the realms of possibility – it would truly be a crime. O’Brien still has Chamonix in there as well though so you’d assume that’s the pace-making angle.
If Imperial Monarch does run there’s every chance he could chase Camelot home but with several bookies not even offering prices on him at this point, thankfully, it looks unlikely.
Michelangelo and Thought Worthy are probably the weakest two of the horses originally thought to be John Gosden’s intended runners but are now the Leger specialist’s only real contenders, I liked Michelangelo for this a long time ago when he was still progressing but he was a little disappointing last time out when 3rd at Goodwood but that race probably didn’t play to his strengths and he looks a stayer, given Gosden’s record in the race he has to be respected but again at 11/1 he’s not exactly outstanding value.
Thought Worthy stole the Great Voltigeur but has okay form from the Derby to back that up coming in to this, I’d expect William Buick to take the ride on him rather than Michelangelo but with question marks over how accurate his Voltigeur win really was in terms of ability I’d rather be with Michelangelo, who seems to fit the profile of a Gosden Leger horse more, even if Thought Worthy’s breeding suggests he’s a Leger horse.
The two Gosden runners will also have a pacemaker in there, no doubt going hammer and tongs with Chamonix at the front in the form of the 74-rated Dartford so there should be no shortage of pace in the race.
Getting further down the betting you come to more my idea of value in the progressive Guarantee at 14/1, he’s progressing at a rapid rate of knots and could be anything. Is he going to beat Camelot? Probably not, but at 14s he looks value for a place given his profile.
This will be only his fifth career run and his trainer’s first Leger runner but William Haggas must see something in him to throw him in to such lofty company after running in handicaps since breaking his maiden at the second time of asking.
Guarantee is also well bred; he won well at Ripon at the end of July before hacking up in the Melrose at York last time out, the form of the latter race reads well and although it’s a huge leap up from handicaps to a classic who’s to say how good he could be?
That’s what you want in a race with a make-up like this, a horse that could potentially be underestimated and thus offers value against the history-bidding favourite.
Another horse potentially being underestimated is Thomas Chippendale for Sir Henry Cecil, he’s a Royal Ascot winner and on the back of a somewhat lacklustre run at Goodwood last time out seems to have been forgotten.
Again he’s not going to beat Camelot but at 25/1 he has to be each-way value.
Of the remainder, Irish raider Ursa Major at 33/1 is not without a chance of making the frame on the back of his win in the Group 3 Irish St. Leger Trial, he’s by Galileo and could potentially be being overlooked in the shadow of his headline grabbing fellow Irish raider.
But there’s one horse we’re yet to discuss who’s a huge price if you ask me…
Godolphin’s Encke cannot be ruled out on his form to date; and at 33/1, given the relative prices of the horses he finished in front of at Goodwood (Michelangelo in particular) and his 2 ¼ length third to Thought Worthy and Main Sequence in the Voltigeur you’d have to say he was overpriced.
Thought Worthy stole the Voltigeur yet is a third of the price of the horse who wasn’t far behind him in third, in five runs Encke’s never been worse than third, he’s expected to improve for the step up in trip and although I also think Guarantee is value you’d have to say on what Encke has achieved so far compared to Guarantee 33/1 is a gift, especially given Godolphin’s good record in the race.
Obviously for Racing and to carry on the historical summer of sport we’ve been having it’ll be great if Camelot can become a Triple Crown winner, and I’ll certainly be cheering him on to do just that. If Encke can chase him home though that’d suit me just fine.
St. Leger – Best Odds:
Camelot 2/5
Main Sequence 8/1
Imperial Monarch 10/1
Michelangelo 11/1
Thought Worthy 11/1
Guarantee 14/1
Thomas Chippendale 25/1
Encke 33/1
Ursa Major 33/1
Chamonix 100/1
Dartford 250/1
Recommendation:
Encke each-way @ 33/1 (Sportingbet, Stan James, Ladbrokes)
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