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| Arc of the Coveted - Can Shareta go one better than last year in the Arc? |
One reason for that being that one can argue that this year’s Arc looks somewhat lacklustre in some respects and she would have been a big story going in to the race and thus adding an extra dimension to proceedings. The other reason being that with Danedream in the field disputing favouritism, some pretty juicy prices were available on some of the other contenders.
With my ante-post pick Snow Fairy also already ruled out, it’s been back to the drawing board in recent days in trying to find the winner of this year’s Longchamp spectacular.
It’s been a difficult market to weigh up for some time, with high-profile defectors and a huge question mark still hanging over Camelot’s participation; even now despite being left in the race at the forfeit stage whether the 2000 Guineas and Derby winner will take his chance remains up in the air.
If Camelot were to take his chance then he’s a major player. Back at his more optimum trip after his agonising Triple Crown defeat and getting considerable weight from the older horses the race would look to be set up for him to redeem himself.
5/1 looks a big price should he actually run but with doubts still there over whether he actually will at this point, unless you’re betting Non-Runner, No-Bet with either Paddy Power or Boylesports, both of whom are offering Aidan O’Brien’s star at considerably less than the 5s you can get with Ladbrokes it’s probably safer to look elsewhere.
With the recent rain we’ve been having in Europe, you’d have to think that Eclipse winner Nathaniel holds a huge chance of Longchamp glory after missing the race last year due to unseasonably quick ground.
John Gosden’s charge has remained at the top of his game this year after his all-conquering three-year-old campaign and his season appears to have been geared around an Arc tilt.
Nathaniel is tough as nails and is all heart, and although he’s been second twice this season his conquerors on those two runs are both notable absentees from the Arc field now.
He won the Eclipse over arguably an inadequate trip first time out this year, beating the reliable benchmark Farhh and was then a whisker away from winning back to back King Georges when going down by the narrowest of margins to Danedream at Ascot back in July.
Last time out in the Irish Champion he battled well to chase home Snow Fairy when the super-mare had everything in her favour, so now back at his trip on what will likely be his preferred ground he’s impossible to rule out, especially with men of the moment Gosden and William Buick behind him.
Unfortunately from a betting perspective, the value has long since gone on Nathaniel and although relative to the favourite 4/1 seems generous it is hardly a stand-out price in an ultra-competitive and notoriously unpredictable race.
Speaking of the favourite, Japanese raider Orfevre, he was my idea of a good bet for the Arc when available at around 16/1 a few months back but now thrown in at 10/3 following his impressive win in the Prix Foy on Arc Trials day he is far too short.
The Japanese have a long history with the Arc and have been edging closer to winning it; Orfevre has to be their best chance in a long time though being the winner of the Japanese Triple Crown winner.
He will need to improve again against the elite of European Racing but the way in which he won the Foy, seemingly with something in hand would suggest that is entirely possible.
His trainer has voiced concerns over how he will handle the preliminaries given how intense things are on Arc day at Longchamp and he’ll be faced with a very different race than the Foy in the Arc so for me there are enough doubts to suggest looking elsewhere at the current price.
The Arc is a unique challenge and doesn’t suit all horses, which brings me to a horse that has been there and done it and for me represents the current value in the market.
Shareta was second in last year’s race, chasing home Danedream and finishing ahead of the likes of Snow Fairy, So You Think and the re-opposing Meandre. Twelve months ago she was viewed as the Aga Khan’s second string behind the well-backed Sarafina but this year she’s very much that famous operation’s leading light in the race.
She was 66/1 last year when second but following impressive wins in the Yorkshire Oaks when accounting for the high class The Fugue and the Prix Vermeille in which she won under the minimum of fuss and had the re-opposing Solemia behind her she is a fraction of that this year.
Shareta is surely going to be in the mix again come crunch time and for me, at the prices, she represents the best value.
Of the remainder, Saonois, who will be supplemented for the race looks to be a dark horse on the back of his Prix du Jockey Club and Prix Niel wins, the latter a tried and trusted Arc prep.
Like Camelot he’ll receive weight from his older peers and should our leading three-year-old not run looks to be the pick of the younger generation in this year’s race.
St. Nicholas Abbey is a proven Group 1 stalwart and it would be no surprise to see him get in the placings, but on this season’s form you’d have to think he’ll once again find one or two of these too good.
Meandre looks another of the home contingent who could be in with a chance. Sixth last year, although well held by Orfevre in the Foy, on the pick of his form he looks a big price at 16/1.
It always pays to take note when Godolphin have horses away from their main trainers and when that trainer is master-trainer Andre Fabre it really pays to take notice. Masterstroke has only won once at Group level to date and this by far represents his toughest challenge so far but he looks an improver and warrants respect coming from top connections and representing the Classic generation that have that great record in the race.
Yellow And Green and Ballydoyle’s Imperial Monarch are the only other two capable of maybe surprising a few people for me.
The former was beaten in to fourth by Shareta & Solemia in the Vermeille but there were some good horses in behind and the form of that race looks strong; this looks a stretch but a place might not be beyond the realms of possibility.
Imperial Monarch on the other hand has been off the track since landing the Grandd Prix De Paris in July and prior to that had caught the eye in the Jockey Club when getting no luck and flashing home when clear.
The lay-off is a worry and if Camelot goes you’d think he won’t, but were he to line up I’d fancy him an appealing each-way shot, once again getting weight from the older horses and with some strong form already in the book from a very lightly-raced career.
This year’s Arc may lack a little bit of the magic of previous years without one truly stand-out entrant but it is precisely for that reason that this could prove to be one of the most memorable in recent memory as it genuinely looks wide open at present.
And at the current prices Shareta stands out as the value to go one better than last year and triumph in this year’s Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe.
Recommendation:
Back Shareta each-way @ 8/1 (365, Sportingbet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Hills)
Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe – Selected Best Odds:
Orfevre 10/3
Nathaniel 4/1
Camelot 5/1
Shareta 8/1
Saonois 10/1
St. Nicholas Abbey 12/1
Masterstroke 12/1
Sea Moon 16/1
Meandre 16/1
Imperial Monarch 25/1
Yellow And Green 33/1
Reliable Man 50/1
Mikhail Glinka 66/1
Solemia 40/1
Kesampour 50/1
Haya Landa 100/1
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