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| Heroes - Frankel and Sir Henry Cecil can light up Champion's Day again |
Five Group races across one fantastic card plus the world’s greatest race horse’s suspected final run equals an afternoon more than capable of rivalling the greatest racing from around the world.
Frankel lit up Champion’s Day last year with an imperious performance in the QEII and he looks set to do just the same and then some in 2012, before he takes centre stage one last time though there is the small matter of four other Group races, including another Group 1 to get through.
Here, in race order, are the odds, some analysis and betting guidance for the sophomore year of British Champion’s Day.
1.45 Long Distance Cup (G3) 2m:-
Opinion Poll 3/1, Fame And Glory 5/1, Colour Vision 11/2, Aiken 7/1, Ile de Re 8/1, Rite Of Passage 8/1, Saddlers Rock 8/1, Askar Tau 20/1, Electrolyser 25/1
Champion’s Day starts as it did last year with the Long Distance Cup and most of the season’s main protagonists from Cup races square off again. Last year’s winner Fame And Glory has been well below par this season but came in to the race last year on the back of an Irish Leger flop so it’s foolish to rule him out, but he’s still quite short considering this year’s Gold Cup winner Colour Vision can be backed at bigger odds.
Colour Vision looked unlucky in France on Arc day in the stayers race with the race unfolding in a way that didn’t suit him at all. The horse he narrowly defeated in the Gold Cup Opinion Poll has been off the track since that race but is ultra-consistent and this race has obviously been his end of season target.
At the prices though, although Opinion Poll once again has every right to run a big race, I’d be tempted to side with Colour Vision as the value bet of the race.
2.20 Sprint Stakes (G2) 6f:-
Society Rock 3/1, Wizz Kid 10/3, Maarek 8/1, Slade Power 8/1, Restiadargent 14/1, Sirius Prospect 14/1, Hawkeyethenoo 20/1, Jimmy Styles 20/1, Libranno 20/1, The Cheka 20/1, Medicean Man 25/1, Imperial Guest 33/1, Royal Rock 33/1, Elusivity 50/1, Van Ellis 66/1
The sprint division this year has been left somewhat damaged by the lack of Deacon Blues – last year’s leading domestic sprinter and winner of this race 12 months ago, Australian raiders and abnormally soft ground. The ground may still be soft and there’s still no Deacon Blues but at least there are no Aussie horses to mop up here; although there is a French contender with a live chance.
Prix de l’Abbaye winner Wizz Kid has to have a great chance of going one better than last year here having proved he handles major cut in the ground with that win at Longchamp.
He’ll have to beat another Group 1 winning horse that loves cut in the ground though as Society Rock, winner of the Betfred Sprint Cup, returns to his favourite course and currently heads the market hoping to atone for a lackluster effort in this race 12 months ago.
The ground will suit him far more this time around though and for me he looks the one to beat, he’s not great value but a winner’s a winner.
Unexposed Irish raiding three-year-old Slade Power could be the dark horse in the race and any number of the double figure odds outsiders could run in to a place – Diamond Jubilee third Restiadargent probably having the best chance from that bracket.
2.55 Fillies & Mares Stakes (G2) 1m4f:-
Great Heavens 5/2, Sapphire 4/1, Dancing Rain 6/1, Was 15/2, Shirocco Star 9/1, La Pomme dArmour 10/1, Testosterone 16/1, Vow 16/1, Jehannedarc 20/1, Semayyel 66/1
Great Heavens will no doubt be popular here having been so well backed for the Arc and being a recognized mud lark, but she’s plenty short enough and had a tough race not two weeks ago.
John Gosden will be looking to pick up some big prize money over the course of the day to try and cement the trainer’s title and Great Heavens could be his best chance of doing so, this was always her main end of season target before her Arc supplementation and she’s certainly the one to beat.
Given her recent grueling run and her short price though I’d prefer to take a chance that last year’s winner Dancing Rain’s season-long injury hasn’t caused her to lose any of the front-running brilliance that saw her land the Oaks and this race in 2011.
An unplaced effort in Japan at the end of last year is her only start since taking this 12 months ago but at the prices she makes more appeal than the admittedly progressive Great Heavens, the ground is also somewhat of an unknown for her, as although she’s run on testing ground, all her wins have been on better ground.
It’s a leap of faith somewhat but William Haggas is no mug and I wouldn’t have thought he’d be risking arguably his stable star unless she was back in top form.
Of the others the two French raiders need respecting and Was and Shirocco Star are two of the top fillies from the classic generation and could do as Dancing Rain did last year and claim victory for the three year olds.
3.30 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) 1m:-
Excelebration 8/11, Cityscape 9/2, Elusive Kate 6/1, Carlton House 10/1, Most Improved 20/1, Side Glance 25/1, Indomito 50/1, Sovereign Debt 50/1
Frankel’s step up to 1m2f must have been the greatest moment in poor Excelebration’s life – having chased home the wonder horse many a time, including this race last year, Excelebration finally got back to winning ways when landing arguably the most competitive Group 1 of the season to date when winning the Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville on his last start.
He had Elusive Kate and Cityscape behind him that day and I see no reason why those would reverse the form with him here.
The Queen’s Carlton House disappointed hugely on his return to this trip last time out and I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to back him again after that.
St. James’s Palace winner Most Improved is another that needs to leave a disappointing run behind him but has a course and distance win under his belt but for me if you aren’t betting big enough to back Excelebration for the win the ultra-consistent Side Glance looks a good each-way shout at a bigger price.
Having run well all season, placing on his last five starts – all in Group company, including when third behind Frankel and Excelebration in the Queen Anne at the Royal meeting, another bold bid looks assured. Providing eight remain in the field so we get each-way on three places Side Glance looks the value bet of the race.
4.05 Champion Stakes (G1) 1m2f:-
Frankel 2/9, Cirrus Des Aigles 4/1, Nathaniel 11/1, Pastorius 33/1, Master Of Hounds 125/1, Bullet Train 250/1
Frankel lit up Champion’s Day last year and can bring the curtain down on his glittering career and do the same again here, albeit in a different race.
Last year’s Champion Stakes featured a who’s who of the top horses in training over this distance but 12 months on the world’s greatest looks to have scared them all off and faces only five (one of which is his pacemaker).
Earlier in the week when the possibility of eight or more runners looked likely Nathaniel seemed stonking each-way value but now with only six and only two places for each-way money you’re taking a big chance that he can finish in front of what would arguably be the world’s greatest horse in any other lifetime Cirrus Des Aigles.
Both of Frankel’s main rivals on Saturday are among the top ten race horses in the world and both enjoy a softer surface, however Frankel has about a stone in hand on them both and should be okay with the ground unless it was to come up like a quagmire, but even then all we know is he’s never raced on that sort of ground, not that he doesn’t handle it.
This will be without a doubt his greatest test to date but he should rise to the occasion and cement his legend as the greatest horse this generation has seen, and very possibly ever.
It’s really a race to just sit back and savour, but from a betting point of view the only way to play this for me is to chance Nathaniel each-way and hope he gets the better of Cirrus Des Aigles for the minor honours, as there will be little to no value in a forecast on Frankel and Cirrus Des Aigles, or even Frankel and Nathaniel.
With Cirrus Des Aigles winning the race last year and seemingly in rude health after his Longchamp romp on Arc weekend and Nathaniel over arguably his weaker trip – in spite of being an Eclipse winner – it’s a big chance to take but the only bet that offers even the most remote value in a race that should once again be a precession for Frankel.
Champion’s Day is rounded out by the Future Stars Apprentice Handicap over 7f, which really does feel like it would have belonged more on last weekend’s Future Champion’s Day card at Newmarket.
At the time of writing no one has the race priced up yet but I’d venture that Jim Goldie’s mud-loving Jack Dexter will run a big race on ground he seems to relish.
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