2000 Guineas - Big Race Preview

Dawn Raid - Jim Bolger's Champion two-year-old can win the 2000 Guineas

The first English Classic of the season takes place on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile this Saturday, and as has been the case for the last three renewals of the one mile contest there is a very short priced favourite heading in to the race.

St. Nicholas Abbey failed to record victory at flat racing’s HQ in 2010 at a prohibitive price but Frankel (2011) and Camelot (2012) both landed the spoils at compressed odds.

2013 sees long time ante-post favourite for the 2000 Guineas Dawn Approach head there with a serious rival in the market in the form of Craven winner Toronado for the Richard Hannon team.

Dawn Approach was light years ahead of the two-year-old opposition he faced in 2012 and improved with each of his runs throughout the year; he remains unbeaten and has twice scored at Group 1 level.

I’ve long thought he would be very hard to beat in the Guineas and even with Toronado bursting on to the scene at a late stage that sentiment has not changed.

I’ve managed to back Jim Bolger’s star at considerably better odds than the 11/8 available at present but I still think his current price is a backable one. Sure some will argue there’s better value elsewhere and that Toronado represents the better value of the two leading players but when the favourite is this good is there really value in trying to oppose him?

Dawn Approach might not be flashy in the way he does things but he has the toughness that Bolger seems to ingrain in his horses and for all Toronado’s explosive flare I think he’ll struggle to get in front of the favourite.

Although I’ve also backed Dawn Approach for the Derby, as I do think he’ll get a mile and a half, Toronado does appeal more as a Derby-type on everything we know and have seen thus far and there’s a suspicion this could be Dawn Approach’s main Classic aspiration this season.

I’m not as confident as I was before Toronado lit up Newmarket in the Craven but I’m still pretty hopeful that Dawn Approach can remain unbeaten and christen himself the new star of flat racing this Saturday in the 2000 Guineas.

Of the other runners Mars is very interesting coming with such a big reputation having achieved so little on the track to date and I’m genuinely fascinated to see how he gets on.

Cristoforo Colombo has already been comfortably beaten by Dawn Approach and though he was arguably a little unlucky that day I see no reason he’ll reverse the form, Lines of Battle is heading to Kentucky, while Moohaajim is a horse I don’t rate anywhere near as highly as others do and he’ll have to improve dramatically from his Greenham run to figure in the shake-up here.

Garswood was impressive in winning the Free Handicap but surely has place claims at best while the rest look up against it, with the exception of George Vancouver, who could prove the best of the Ballydoyle bunch on the back of his Breeders’ Cup victory.

He could only manage third behind Dawn Approach in the Dewhurst but his Santa Anita win represents strong form and I have a feeling he could outrun a price here with the betting suggesting he’s the Ballydoyle third string.

George Vancouver would probably be the way I would go if I were to bet each-way but I’m going to keep the faith with a horse that regular readers will know I’ve been sweet on for a long time and hope that Saturday can signal the Dawn of a new era.

2000 Guineas – Selected Best Odds:

Dawn Approach 11/8
Toronado 11/4
Mars 9/1
Cristoforo Colombo 10/1
Garswood 14/1
George Vancouver 16/1
Moohaajim 25/1
Van Der Neer 25/1
Lines Of Battle 50/1
Kyllachy Rise 66/1
Leitir Mor 66/1
Correspondent 100/1
Dont Bother Me 100/1
Glory Awaits 200/1

Recommendation:

1pt win Dawn Approach @ 11/8 (Bet Victor, Paddy Power)