Forty runners will line-up for the most unique and demanding challenge in horse racing and the world’s most famous steeplechase is arguably the hardest race of the year to find the winner of from a punting perspective.
Hopefully my runner by runner guide will be able to steer you in the right direction though and help you pick out a horse, or several, that will be staying on at the elbow rather than crashing out at the first.
Therefore, in handicap order, here is my runner-by-runner guide to the 2013 Grand National:-
1. Imperial Commander – Impressive Gold Cup winner in 2010, but career blighted by injury since. Excellent comeback run after a lengthy absence when ½ length second to subsequent Gold Cup fifth Cape Tribulation in the Argento at Cheltenham in January. Missed Cheltenham Festival though due to illness and tough to know how much of a setback that really was. Best form is at Cheltenham and unproven at this trip, but top class on his day and though it now may seem unlikely as a twelve-year-old it’s not difficult to imagine him getting involved off a favourable handicap mark in spite of top weight.
2. What A Friend – Class horse at his best having been second in a Hennessy, won a Bowl at this course and been fourth in a Gold Cup. Has looked a shadow of former self though since pulling up in this race two years ago though when well fancied but never threatening. Experience of this unique test a plus but on recent form looks up against it under a big weight; co-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson however if you’re looking for a Grand National story.
3. Weird Al – Another top-notcher at his best and still relatively lightly raced for a ten-year-old. Never really lived up to novice promise but has been campaigned at the highest level. Some have called him soft but that’s probably a little unfair, though stamina is a huge concern having pulled up in two Gold Cups and fallen when well behind and beaten in this last year. Hard to fancy him on this season’s form but has the right trainer for this race in Donald McCain.
4. Quel Esprit – Hails from the all-conquering Willie Mullins yard. Won three out of four last season including, an admittedly weak, Irish Hennessy. Returned this season in aforementioned race when well beaten fourth of four. Hard to gauge well-being on back of that and hasn’t exactly appealed as an Aintree type in earlier career. Trainer always has to be respected though but with a much more fancied runner in the race and a perceived big player that was only recently ruled out through injury it’s hard to get overly excited about this one’s prospects in spite of clear class.
5. Big Fella Thanks – Has a good record in this race having finished sixth in 2009, fourth in 2010 and seventh in 2011. Better than ever this season finishing third over these fences in leading trial the Becher, before winning comfortably at Wincanton in January. Routed by a good winner in the Greatwood Gold Cup last time out but held on gamely for second. Should go well again in spite of advancing years and although probably not up to winning now a good, solid each-way bet at a price.
6. Roberto Goldback – Consistent enough sort that had been struggling to get his head in front for Jessica Harrington. Bought and subsequently shipped across the Irish Sea to powerful Nicky Henderson yard this season, seemingly with this race in mind. Won on first start for new yard when decimating strong Ascot handicap field but has struggled since having shot up the weights. Trainers only runner in the race and respected on those grounds, but looks to have a lot on his plate at the weights.
7. Seabass – Third in this last year after going unbeaten since January 2010. Encouraging return over hurdles this season before a good third in the Bobbyjo last time out. Raced prominently last year and looked big danger before tiring close to home, will no doubt go well again under Katie Walsh and returning placed horses have a good record the following year, but difficult to envisage him being able to improve on last year from higher in the weights and yard have another leading contender this time around too.
8. Ballabriggs – 2011 winner and good sixth last year off a big weight. Pulled up in the Becher on return this year and well beaten on two subsequent starts over inadequate trips. This has always been the target though and will no doubt come here in top form again. Clearly acts well on the track, as you’d expect given connections, and given the good record of returning winners and placed horses you’d have to think he’ll at the very least be getting round, but suspicion is that he’s had his day and will probably find several too good again this time.
9. Sunnyhillboy – Second last year by the narrowest of margins having come on from winning the Kim Muir at Cheltenham when storming up the hill. More weight this time and with a much less eye-catching preparation; had been due for a prep run in the Gold Cup but withdrawn on morning of the race with a dirty scope – mitigating circumstances however with booked jockey Tony McCoy keen to take up another ride and unable to do so with him still entered. Either way, a less than ideal prep and if the dirty scope was legitimate it would have to be a worry just three weeks before this race. Respected on last year’s run if now right though.
10. Teaforthree – Was all the rage for the Welsh equivalent of this race when just turned over thanks to a Paul Carberry master class on the winner. Won the four-miler at Cheltenham last season and was a respectable sixth in the Hennessy this season in his Welsh National prep. Stamina not in question and really attacks his fences, can see him being up with the pace; drifted in the ante-post betting after a very disappointing run in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last time out though, and with regular partner Tony McCoy – who seems to get on best with him – on board something else enthusiasm for him is tempered somewhat. First Welsh winner since 1905 would be a big story though.
11. Across The Bay – Another from the Donald McCain yard; has enjoyed modest career to date having formally been with Noel Meade in Ireland. Revitalised by switch to McCain in 2011 and ran creditably in staying hurdle races last season before switching back to chases this season. 28l defeat of Cappa Bleu at Carlisle in November stands out, although that form probably shouldn’t be taken literally. Seventh in Welsh National having raced prominently and excellent Grade 2 hurdles win last time out. Could out run his odds but with stable having more than one other big hope it’s hard to fancy him strongly.
12. Join Together – Came in to many people’s thoughts for this when a fast-finishing second in the Becher behind the now retired veteran and Aintree specialist Hello Bud. Early promise of novice chase campaign last season ultimately not fulfilled when pulled up in the RSA before being well beaten at Aintree by stable mate and multiple Grade 1 winner Silviniaco Conti. Experience of the unique fences is a positive though and he looks an out and out stayer. Appeared to be one to keep on side for this but a disastrous prep run at Doncaster which saw him badly hampered before pulling up when unable to make an impression looks far from ideal; ridden by last year’s winning jockey though.
13. Colbert Station – Other big hope from the Ted Walsh (Seabass) yard for this year. Caught the eye when winning the Paddy Power Chase in impressive style over Christmas and followed up with a Punchestown hurdles win in February. Had previously been good second to Roi Du Mee at Navan over hurdles and mount of champion jockey Tony McCoy. Has the right sort of profile and from a very shrewd trainer that knows how to get them ready for this race. Contender.
14. Forpadydeplasterer – One of the more unlikely contenders in this year’s race having won the Arkle (2m) in 2009. Had a really bad case of second-itis following that win and has only notched the one victory in the four years since. Very talented horse at the peak of his powers though but been on the decline for some time now and really tough to see him staying four and a half miles. There’ll be great scenes from the colourful syndicate that own him if he were to though.
15. On His Own – Long time ante-post favourite for the race from the Willie Mullins yard. Travelling well when falling at Bechers in this last year when well fancied. Returned this season with excellent Grade 2 hurdles win at Navan in the mud. One of the many Wylie horses that joined Mullins from Howard Johnson, and progressed through the ranks with a good crop of horses. Not a lot in his form to suggest with any conviction that he deserves to be as short as he has been in the market, but travelled in a way last year that is encouraging, comes from powerful connections, mount of brilliant Ruby Walsh and is very much respected.
16. Joncol – Strapping Irish raider that’s been mixing it with the very best for a number of years now. Twice placed in a Lexus and won Irish Hennessy in 2010, without a win since November 2011 though and has been struggling of late. Well beaten on each start this season including last time out when thumped as outsider of four in Irish Hennessy. Looks the sort of horse that could go well over the Aintree fences though, but will need to rekindle some of earlier career form in order to do so.
17. Balthazar King – Frequently raced former winner of the Cross Country at the Cheltenham festival; missed opportunity to defend crown in that race this year due to the ground in order to come here in peak condition. Very soft ground would be detrimental to his chances, but has experience in unique conditions from the Cross Country races and should stay strongly. Not run since November but good win at Cheltenham in October and Phillip Hobbs horses always warrant a degree of respect. Interesting contender.
18. Cappa Bleu – Fast finishing fourth in this last year that surprisingly gets in off a lower mark this year. Really lightly raced for age and a former Cheltenham festival Foxhunters winner. Never quite lived up to potential having had injury problems but now seemingly in good health. Beaten 28l on return this season and missed most of winter due to bad ground – trainer has stated that slog in Welsh National last season may have hindered prep for this race twelve months ago though. Really strong prep at Ascot in February however storming home to take second (was third in that race last year) and trainer seems bullish about chances. Slight suspicion that last year could have been his year for this but jumps well, is a dour stayer and will be coming home strongly when others have cried enough. Wouldn’t want it too soft and jockey has tendency to hold horses up but if ridden closer to the pace this year and avoiding trouble in running looks to have a really strong chance of equaling last year’s run at worst.
19. Oscar Time – Second in 2011 but really struggled since and well and truly stuffed on prep run for this when trailing in a distant last of seventeen at Naas. Many unfairly critical of jockey but has won two King Georges and a Gold Cup with the mighty Long Run. Having completed and placed previously, no doubts about the trip or the fences and could go well if rekindling performance of two years ago, but that’s a big if based on recent form or lack therefore of.
20. Always Waining – Triple Topham winner over these fences so clearly loves the course and the fences (was also fourth in that race in 2009), disappointing in a way that he doesn’t go for historic fourth straight win in that race but good to see him finally get a chance in the big race. Topham only run over 2m5f though and stamina a concern having pulled up on most attempts at 3m+ though did run fourth in the Becher (3m2f) in 2011. This season’s form poor but never really does much anywhere else and saves best for this course and this meeting in particular. His jumping could see him go well but hard to imagine him having the stamina to last out.
21. Tatenen – Former Paul Nicholls inmate that looked to have a big future during novice hurdle career but struggled somewhat when sent chasing. Now with Richard Rowe, transfer seemed to rejuvenate him somewhat, but unseated at Canal Turn in this last year. Ran a good sixth in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last time (2m) but never completed at further than 3m and jumping can be suspect. Talented at his best but unpredictable and doubts over too many aspects of his game to fancy here.
22. Treacle – Irish challenger From Tam Taaffe that endured luckless run in this last year, twice hampered early before falling at the tenth. Was a decent hurdler but took a couple of seasons to really come good over larger obstacles. Second in valuable Paddy Power Chase over Christmas in 2011 and then outran his odds to claim third in last year’s Irish Hennessy (behind Quel Esprit and Roberto Goldback). Poor seasonal debut this season after long absence but good win last time out at Down Royal and has at least had a bit of a spin round here before and seems to be in good heart based on latest run.
23. Lost Glory – Eight-year-old Montjeu gelding from trainer of last year’s runner-up Jonjo O’Neill. Average hurdler at best but switch to fences brought big improvement in him. Good win at Chepstow when last seen (subsequently impressive Cheltenham winner further down the field) in October, question marks over this trip however but from respected connections. This looks unlike anything he’s ever experienced before though and he’ll need to improve dramatically to get competitive.
24. Saint Are – Useful sort with good course record including winning John Smith’s Handicap Chase last season. Third behind Cappa Bleu (second) at Ascot in February and then well down the field in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time out. Course form an obvious positive but age (only seven), hit and miss jumping and questions about stamina for this trip are all negatives. Not one that could be completely ruled out but injured Beshabar looked to be yard’s main hope for the race and hard to see him getting involved in the shake-up this time around.
25. Swing Bill – Admirable, veteran grey that has gone well round here several times before. Fifth in the Topham in 2011, tenth in this last year and a good, staying on fourth in the Becher earlier this season. Tends to go well fresh, so recent run in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham somewhat of a negative, as are his now advancing years and he does seem to be better in the earlier part of the jumps season. Handles the track though and will stay; place claims at best.
26. Chicago Grey – Could be handicapped to go very well for shrewd Gordon Elliot who won this race in 2007 with Silver Birch. Unlucky in this last year when brought down at the fifth. Won the four-miler at Cheltenham in 2011 under a brilliant ride and eighth in same year’s Scottish National so stamina no concern. In and out of form since but gets in here off a very favourable mark as a result when compared to peak rating and comes out top on weight-adjusted ratings from good judges at Timeform. Grade 2 chase win over 2m4f last time out at Navan shows he retains all of old ability and he should be finessed round and given every chance. Has a tendency to clatter a fence now and then but still one to consider.
27. Quiscover Fontaine – Another Mullins/McManus entry this time with the two Irish powerhouses of the national hunt game connected on the same horse. Was looking unlikely to make an impact in this last year when falling on the second circuit and been pretty poor in his three runs this season. Fourth in the Irish equivalent in 2011 but no other real sparkling bits of form, though did look promising over hurdles and in early chase career. Difficult to see him suddenly putting up a performance good enough to win a Grand National though.
28. Becauseicouldntsee – Came here quietly well fancied in 2011 after game second in the four-miler at Cheltenham previous year and a good second in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, but only made it as far as the second fence before falling. Excellent second in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last year when outstayed up the hill by Sunnyhillboy (subsequently second in this) but then unseated at canal turn in this compounding poor record round here. Disappointing since but fifth in Kim Muir recently was step back in right direction. Hard to fancy this time given record at Aintree but wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world were he to outrun his odds.
29. Harry The Viking – Lightly raced eight-year-old from Paul Nicholls yard. Excellent novice form including good second to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase (4m) at Cheltenham last March. Pulled up when sent off favourite in last year’s Scottish National and struggled a bit since, pulled up again over 3m3f at Cheltenham in November before running ninth in the Hennessy. Distant tenth in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham a couple of weeks back and though talented, on that recent form it’s hard to imagine him being involved in the finish here.
30. Rare Bob – Dessie Hughes inmate that was brought down in this last year early on. Has a mixed record at Aintree having also unseated in the John Smith’s Handicap in 2011 but finished third in same race twelve months earlier and was fifth in the 2011 Becher. Has a similar sort of profile to other Hughes horses that have gone well in this race (notably 2010 second Black Apalachi) and has been allotted a quite favourable handicap mark for this. Recent form has been unspectacular though and you have to go back to January 2011 to find his last win. Couldn’t be completely ruled out though and should at least have stamina enough for this having been fourth in 2009 Irish National; second best on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings as well.
31. The Rainbow Hunter – Fourth last time out in the race Cappa Bleu and Saint Are were second and third in. Pulled up in the mud at Chepstow the time before that but had previously been enjoying a decent year. Nothing in his form to suggest he could be a contender here though really, and finished well down the field on his only run in what can be considered a big field. Trainer Kim Bailey is a shrewd judge though so you’d have to think he’d shown something of note for this to be his target but on the bare form you’d be hard to pressed to mark him up as a player.
32. Mr Moonshine – Possible Yorkshire interest in the race from Sue Smith’s yard. Has been running in good company but never really got close to making an impact at a high level, and without a win since November 2011. Best work has come in smaller fields and that coupled with lack of experience over the big fences and over a marathon trips would be a big concern. Decent enough on his day though and Rowland Meyrick second to Cape Tribulation earlier this season now reads well on that one’s recent exploits. Hard to like for this though really, and latest run a big disappointment.
33. Mumbles Head – Inconsistent twelve-year-old from Peter Bowen yard. Trainer has got Always Waining back to win three consecutive Tophams so respected on that basis but not seen since December and has been pulled up and fallen on his last two starts, the fall coming in the Becher over these fences. Bits of decent form here and there and does tend to go better in the warmer months but would take a very big leap of faith to imagine him getting involved here on recent efforts.
34. Auroras Encore – Eleven-year-old from Sue Smith yard that was an excellent, very narrow second in last year’s Scottish equivalent. Highly tried, including seven runs since that race last April, form since has been pretty poor but should stay and has big field handicap experience. Well beaten in popular trial for this race last time out up at Kelso and even on the pick of his form probably just not good enough to get competitive here.
35. Ninetieth Minute – Irish raider that has been running unspectacularly in some good races. Lightly raced but has shown flashes of talent in his performances to date. Fell in the Irish version of this race last season so stamina must be taken on trust given that was his only attempt at anything of a marathon nature. Good second behind Treacle over 3m2f last time out though and generally an assured jumper.
36. Tarquinius – French import from Gordon Elliot yard formerly with Charlie Mann. Form has a consistent enough look to it and well experienced in these big field handicap chases over long distances. Latest run disappointing when sent off a very well beaten joint-favourite and in all honesty probably not good enough, but racked up two handicap wins in quick succession over the festive period just gone and you’d be a fool to completely write off a horse from one of the shrewdest up and coming trainers around.
37. Any Currency – Another veteran of the national scene having contested the Welsh, Scottish and North Yorkshire versions in the last eighteen months. Was ninth in the Cross Country race at Cheltenham, and unseated on his only attempt over these fences in the Becher back in December. Has decent enough pieces of form here and there and no doubts over stamina, jumping is usually sound enough too. Could be one at a big price if you can get paid out on more than four places, but will probably inevitably find several of the others too strong.
38. Major Malarkey – Hit and miss sort that from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard that badly needs good ground. Pulled up extremely early on in the Midlands equivalent of this race last time out, possibly to save something for this on ground he had no chance on, but that was still a worrying visual. Should stay no problem but jumping not always the best and 2013 record is uninspiring. Trainer has won this twice in last fifteen years though.
39. Soll – Big, rangy sort formerly with Willie Mullins now with Jo Hughes. Virtually made all and jumped rivals ragged to take handicap chase at Sandown last time out. Had been well fancied for the four-miler at Cheltenham last season but was brought down before any cards were played. Very lightly raced and looks made for these fences; also boasts a decent career record, was a respectable if unspectacular eighth in this year’s Hennessy which looked a strong renewal but was then well beaten back in ninth as the last finisher in the Welsh National. Stamina somewhat of an unknown but looks like he’ll stay; remains one that has my attention.
40. Viking Blond – Still only eight surprisingly given amount of racing he’s had, and comes from same ownership as the mighty Sprinter Sacre. Only made it as far as the first fence in this last year but has chunks of good form in his past. Stamina would be a big concern as all his soirees in to stamina testing races have resulted in failures to complete. Was a good third behind Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude over an extended 3m3f at Cheltenham back in November but pulled up in the Welsh National when sent off co-second favourite. Recent fifth in Kim Muir more encouraging but was a long way back in that and hard to get overly excited about a horse that was felled by the first of Aintree’s many daunting fences last time around.
R1. Pentiffic – New Zealand-bred ten-year-old from Venetia Williams’ yard. Only been racing in the UK just under eighteen months but does have little pieces of form here and there. Was sixth in the North Yorkshire National up at Catterick in January when sent off favourite on the back of a 14 length romp at Musselburgh earlier that month, that was first victory in roughly a year though. Trainer won this in 2009 with a 100/1 long shot but question marks over stamina here and pretty difficult to like for this all things considered.
R2. Mortimers Cross – Twelve-year-old that won the Scottish Borders National back in December. Subsequently been well beaten on both starts but did beat the useful Rigadin De Beauchene last year. Pulled up in the Devon National last March but should stay and jumping wouldn’t be an issue, though no experience of Aintree and its fences. Small owner-trainer operation would be great story were he to win but this looks far too difficult for him and rightfully the rank outsider of the lot.
Summary:
A minefield as always but there are a few that stand-out from the pack to me. Veteran of this race Big Fella Thanks must surely go well again and though he probably doesn’t quite stay the stamina-sapping distance of the Grand National he’s one who I imagine will be plodding on at the end and could run in to a place at what remains a very backable each-way price.
Former Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander is probably the most interesting of the runners as at his peak he was rated 185 but gets to run here off a mark in the high 150s, on that you’d have to say he’s well handicapped in spite of carrying top weight. He does look the type of horse who will go well over the National fences and though the trip is an unknown with him if he does stay he looks more than capable of claiming a fairytale win even at the ripe old age of twelve.
Ted Walsh boasts a fantastic Grand National record and though many will be looking at Seabass as his best chance this year it is his other runner Colbert Station that ticks many boxes for me. He looks very well treated at the weights, has the right sort of profile for the race and Walsh really is a master at preparing horses for this.
At a really big price I do think Any Currency could outrun his odds, though you would be best served looking for a bookmaker paying more than the traditional four places such as the six available with Bet Victor were you to back him each-way.
My idea of the best bet in this year’s Grand National though is last year’s fourth CAPPA BLEU. His trainer has had a horse placed in the race for the last four years and has been extremely upbeat about Cappa Bleu’s chances again this year. He jumps beautifully, stays all day and gets in off an extremely lenient handicap mark. He will need more luck in running that he got last year and could do with being ridden closer to the pace but if he’s still standing after the last I think he’ll be storming up that long, famous run-in when many others are starting to tread water. His each-way price is long gone now really but I genuinely can’t see him not placing if he gets round.
My real main hope for this year’s Grand National though is that all horses and jockeys can return home safe and sound, and the biggest race in the calendar can get back to being reported on for its sporting significance and the incredible achievement that succeeding in the race is rather than the controversy and bad press the race has attracted in recent years.
1-2-3-4:
1. Cappa Bleu
2. Colbert Station
3. Imperial Commander
4. Big Fella Thanks
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