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| Verry Good - Verrazano can land the Dirt Mile to start Breeders' Cup weekend with a bang |
It’s a weekend of the year that I always truly look forward to and this year is no different, with numerous other countries and courses trying to emulate the model the meeting has been somewhat diluted in recent years, at least on these shores, but for me it is still the original and the best and no one but no one does this sort of thing better than the Americans.
There’s been some incredible races over the weekend in recent years and we could be set to usher some more great memories in to the annuls of history this coming Friday and Saturday.
With fourteen races over the two days there’s a lot to study going in to the weekend so for the purposes of this preview I’m going to stick to the races in which I have a strong ante-post conviction, however I will still take them in their running order over the two days.
So on that note we begin with Juvenile Turf and perhaps somewhat predictably the team that have won it for the past two years Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore.
Giovanni Boldini surely comes here with more going for him than either of Ballydoyle’s recent winners and other than a Group 1 defeat at the hands of the impressive Toormore and previous Group 1 winner Sudirman remains unbeaten.
He prepped for this at Dundalk winning easily and should appreciate this challenge on breeding, like Declaration of War he is a son of the up-and-coming stallion War Front. Given connections’ already stellar record in this race a big run looks on the cards from a horse that was chucked in at Group 1 level within a week of his race course debut.
In the Dirt Mile one of the year’s most impressive winners Verrazano lines up. He absolutely obliterated the field in the Haskell Invitational winning by an astounding 9 ¼ lengths.
On the back of that win he was sent off favourite for the Travers but seemed to bounce spectacularly and trailed in seventh of the nine runners. He needs to bounce back from that run but if his master trainer Todd Pletcher has got him peaking at the right time – which he surely will have – then he will take a hell of a lot of beating.
In spite of a pretty awful draw Doug O’Neill’s Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents looks best of the rest.
The Distaff or Ladies Classic depending on what you want to call it is the showpiece of Friday and the brilliant Royal Delta will be bidding for an incredible hat-trick in the race having landed the spoils in 2011 and 2012.
Having backed her for the last two years it pains me to abandon her, but I think that this time around in Princess of Sylmar she faces her most formidable foe to date and she’s a bigger price than Royal Delta.
One of the fastest horses in America she caused a shock when winning the Kentucky Oaks at 38-1 but has just gone from strength to strength since and now has 6 wins from 7 starts this campaign including a victory over Royal Delta in the Beldame on Super Saturday at Belmont, part of a Grade 1 four-timer this season.
The clash between America’s two best fillies will be something to savour indeed and though Royal Delta remains a horse of considerable talent the time to pass the mantle could be upon her. That said, was she to pull off an incredible treble in the race, wherever your money had been staked, you’d be hard pressed not to get caught up in what would be an amazing feat.
The other two races on the Friday are the Marathon for the stayers and the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf which are two races I’m yet to form a strong opinion on, in spite of the latter featuring a strong European challenge headed by Vorda.
Now on to Saturday and the real pomp and pageantry of the Breeders’ Cup, the nine race extravaganza will begin with the Juvenile Fillies which again is a race I’ve not got any major convictions about just yet.
Second up though is a race that could potentially feature the UK raiding party’s best chance of a winner, as Sir Michael Stoute’s hugely impressive Beverly D winner Dank bids to make it back to back wins across the Atlantic in the Filly and Mare Turf.
She blitzed a good field at Arlington that day and any sort of repeat of that performance will make her incredibly difficult to beat, especially when you consider she had to come wide in the Beverly D and cover a lot more ground than many of her rivals, and still won by a distance.
A three times Group winner in the UK, Dank will be right at home on the likely lightening quick ground and it will take a very good performance to lower her colours having already proven that she can handle the travelling with aplomb.
I’m still a fan of Marketing Mix, second in this last year behind Zagora and the horse that was favoured over Dank on the Morning Line for the Beverly D could bounce right back to the sort of form that saw her beat male counterparts in the Sunset Handicap earlier in the season so isn’t ruled out lightly.
After The Fugue’s luckless effort in this race last year though Dank looks to have a fantastic chance of gaining a modicum of revenge for the transatlantic raiders.
The next two races on Saturday’s card are the Filly and Mare Sprint and the Turf Sprint neither of which I have overly strong thoughts formed on at this point, though last year’s runaway winner Groupie Doll is back for a second helping in the former and if she turns up in the form she was in last year should take some stopping.
The Juvenile this year doesn’t have a Union Rags or a Shanghai Bobby in there for me – and by that I mean horses I was a big fan of prior to this race – but in Havana it does once again have a strongly fancied horse with a Coolmore interest.
The winner of the Champagne Stakes (like the two aforementioned horses who went to be runner-up and winner of this race) looks to have the qualities needed to win a Juvenile and with only two starts, yielding two wins, to his name will surely improve again going in to the Juvenile.
The loss of Honor Code from the race who almost ran Havana down in the Champagne has certainly made his task easier and Todd Pletcher used the Champagne as the prep for the Juvenile for both Shanghai Bobby last year and Uncle Mo in 2010 so the stats would certainly be in Havana’s favour.
The Juvenile is a notoriously difficult puzzle to solve though and this year’s does look a more open renewal than the last few but I have faith that Ballydoyle can add an American trained winner to the Irish trained one they will no doubt have at some point.
The Turf looks a cracking race on paper and now mixing it with the boys The Fugue looks for revenge after last year’s unfortunate trip to the west coast.
A draw that should give her every opportunity has only added to her chance as the ground, trip and even the turns, which she showed she handled last year should all be fine.
She’s been in top form the back end of this season and if anyone Newmarket-based knows how to train a Breeders’ Cup winner then surely it’s John Gosden.
Last year’s winner Little Mike, Point Of Entry, Aidan O’Brien’s Irish 2000 Guineas winner Magician and Big Blue Kitten should all ensure this is no lay-up for The Fugue but the manner of her last two wins when running away with the Yorkshire Oaks and then slamming Al Kazeem and Trading Leather in the Irish Champion on ground possibly a little softer than ideal show that she is a serious force to be reckoned with even against the colts.
Controversial Arlington Million winner Real Solution could be somewhat underestimated at his current odds and may give you a run for your money at a bigger price but the scene truly looks set for redemption for The Fugue and hopefully she can make amends for last year’s disappointment by going one better still and winning the Turf.
The Sprint is another race I’m yet to get to the bottom of (see a theme developing here yet?) but it would be great to see Secret Circle really cement that return from a long spell on the sidelines through injury with a win here, two years on from winning the Juvenile Sprint.
The big two round off the weekend and there’s not much more you can really say about Wise Dan at this point as he bids to win back to back Miles. We certainly won’t be getting a price on him like we did last year but this fantastic horse should be really tough to beat if arriving at his best even with QEII winner Olympic Glory in opposition.
Charles LoPreseti’s charge had racked up nine straight wins (six at G1 level) prior to his surprise defeat at the hands of Silver Max (who re-opposes) last time out in the Shadwell Turf Mile which, bizarrely given it’s name, was actually run on the Polytrack at Keeneland, which many have pointed to as a possible excuse for the loss.
He’d looked imperious again this season prior to that and having won this convincingly last year beating better horses – Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud – I, and seemingly the oddsmakers, expect him to bounce back to his brilliant best once more.
Olympic Glory is unquestionably a wonderful animal but all his best form is on softish ground and the ground he is likely to encounter at Santa Anita is a complete unknown for him and I’m not so sure whether the twists and turns of the track are going to suit him either.
You rule out Olympic Glory and Wise Dan really should have this at his mercy, in spite of that defeat to Silver Max, who sits next in the betting after the front two, last time out.
The feature race of the whole weekend will bring the curtain down on what will more than likely be another fantastic two days of top equine performances and the Classic really does look like it could be one for the ages with the first four home in last year’s renewal all returning along with vanquished favourite Game On Dude.
I’ve backed Game On Dude for this race for the last two years and, like Royal Delta in the Ladies equivalent, this year I am abandoning him. Not because I don’t think he’ll win, because once again he looks to have a very strong chance of finally tasting glory in a race that has eluded him so far, or because I don’t want to see him win, because I would absolutely love to see him finally win the Classic, but purely because in a really strong looking renewal of the race he looks plenty short enough in the betting.
Bob Baffert’s star has been at the top of his game again all season albeit beating inferior rivals to the ones he’ll face in his own back yard on Saturday, and after his narrow defeat in 2011 and the disappointing run of last year no one would begrudge him the win. With Mucho Macho Man peaking at just the right time though Game On Dude could yet again have his work cut out for him.
Kathy Ritvo’s charge, a very narrow second in this race last year, looked just as good when cruising to victory under the evergreen Gary Stevens in the Awesome Again Stakes a little under a month ago. The giant of a horse should get his preferred trail-blazing pace to stalk and I think he has what it takes to go one better than last year and give this storied race yet another heart-warming, and hopefully pocket-lining, victor.
It’s a deep field for this year’s Classic though and in all honesty any one of them could come out on top. I’d love to see Declaration of War do it for Aidan O’Brien after so many near misses, Fort Larned retaining his crown would be a great story and old Ron The Greek would be far from an unpopular winner.
Hopefully the cards will fall right for Mucho Macho Man though after his narrowest of defeats last year, but whatever happens on the night this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic looks set to be the perfect end to a wonderful weekend’s sport.
Recommendations:
Juvenile Turf 1pt win Giovanni Boldini @ 4/1 (Bet365, Bet Victor)
Dirt Mile 1pt win Verrazano @ 11/4 (Betfred, William Hill)
Distaff 1pt win Princess of Sylmar @ 5/2 (Stan James)
Filly and Mare Turf 1pt win Dank @ 2/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power)
Juvenile 1pt win Havana @ 3/1 (Bet365, Bet Victor, William Hill)
Turf 1pt win The Fugue @ 9/4 (Stan James, Bet Victor, Paddy Power)
Mile 2pts win Wise Dan @ Evens (William Hill)
Classic 1pt win Mucho Macho Man @ 9/2 (Bet365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power)
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