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| Dexter's Fab - Jack Dexter is a major player in the Sprint on Champions' Day |
Twelve months on from the mighty Frankel’s last race the card doesn’t have quite the same excitement around it as a year ago but an incredible day’s racing still looks in prospect in spite of a potential mud bath.
Rather than focus on just the one race in great detail here, given the strength in depth on the card, it seemed right to offer a more succinct take on each of the Group races on the card and to try and pick out my idea of the winner or a horse that offers some each-way value.
The card will begin at 1.45pm with the stayers in the Long Distance Cup (Group 3) and the focal point of the race will rightly be the Queen’s Gold Cup heroine Estimate (9/4).
I tried to get her beat at Royal Ascot and looked a fool for it so I won’t be doing that again here. She looks far and away the most likely winner with the best form to her name, previous course and distance wins in her locker and form on soft ground.
In addition to those credentials she also gets another handy weight allowance and has that man Ryan Moore on board once more. All told, everything looks right for a big run and in the absence of a Frankel-like star on this year’s card, victory for Estimate and Her Majesty could be just what the day needs to get some wider media attention.
Next up will be the sprinters in the Sprint Stakes (Group 2) and the betting again looks to be focusing on the mud-lovers. Abbaye hero Maarek (probably the most aptly named winner you could have seen on Arc day) heads the betting in his bid to land back to back renewals of this race.
He’s been kept busy since landing this race twelve months ago from Hawkeyethenoo and now the winter ground has arrived he’s bounced right back to that level of form. He’s landed two Group races in the last month on soft ground (including the Abbaye) and with his preferred surface once again likely he will be a tough nut to crack.
Perhaps displaying more than a little bias however I’m going to take him on each-way with the horse that chased him home last year’s stable mate Jack Dexter (13/2).
I say with bias as both the aforementioned Goldie sprinters are two of my favourite horses in training and as a result I would probably follow both off a very large cliff.
Like Maarek though Jack Dexter thrives in the mud, and in his five runs on ground officially described as soft he’s unbeaten. He’s been incredibly progressive over the last twelve months (he won the apprentice handicap on this card last year) registering a fourth placed effort in the King’s Stand over this course before taking Group 3 honours in the Chipchase at Newcastle (coincidentally won by Maarek last season on his way to victory in this very race).
Last time out Jack Dexter ran a blinder off top weight to be third in the Ayr Gold Cup and any sort of replication of that level of form on ground that should be ideal will see him go very close indeed, so to me, bias aside, he rates a very sensible each-way bet.
The only mile and a half race on the card is the Fillies’ and Mares’ Stakes (Group 1) won last year by Sapphire for the master of Rosewell Dermot Weld.
This year’s renewal has attracted a surprisingly compact field but looks to be the most open race of the day.
Oaks winner and St. Leger second Talent deserves her place at the head of the market but there are some really interesting challengers in there and given she’s unraced on anything worse than good to soft it may pay to take a chance that the ground does come up horrific and side with a proven mud lark (pun very much intended).
Michael Bell’s The Lark (9/1) was third behind Talent in the Oaks and has had a somewhat stop-start season since on account of the ground.
She disappointed at Saint-Cloud following the Oaks when only fifth in a Group 2, but bounced right back to her best last month when an easy and mightily impressive winner of the Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) at Doncaster.
She’s lightly raced, should be open to more improvement and crucially should be right at home on the forecast ground. She’s been the subject of some support in the market over the last twenty-four hours but still remains very much an each-way price.
South African superstar Igugu would ordinarily be very high on anyone’s list of likely winners of this race, but although her form will tell you she has been victorious on soft ground previously the difference between South African soft and British soft in mid-October is probably rather large. Dalkala meanwhile had no problem with soft ground on Arc day but did look a little flattered by that result and this does come quite quickly after her Longchamp heroics.
The big one of the day for me is the QEII (Group 1) as it marks the return of Dawn Approach (2/1). However with Toronado now looking likely to miss the race in favour of shipping to the Breeders’ Cup the race that had been hyped as Dawn Approach Vs. Toronado IV has been robbed of some of its intrigue.
That said the prospect of Wise Dan Vs. Toronado at Santa Anita is rather mouthwatering, and in Olympic Glory connections have a ready made sub with whom to take another crack at the 2000 Guineas winner.
This in all likelihood will be Dawn Approach’s last race before taking up stud duties and it would be fantastic for him to round out a year of great highs and lows with a win.
The ground might not be the concern with him that it would be for Toronado but he is still yet to really sample ground worse that good to soft so it’s far from ideal after a break, but at his best Dawn Approach is a force to be reckoned with over a mile and having a perfect two from two record at Ascot clearly enjoys a trip to the Berkshire track.
If he’s over whatever was ailing him at Deauville last time out his battling nature should make him very difficult to beat indeed.
Soft Falling Rain is perhaps the wildcard in the race but how he would handle very soft ground is a concern; as a result as talented as he is you’d have to feel he could prove vulnerable.
We know however that Olympic Glory will handle the ground and he’s probably the one that will give Dawn Approach most to worry about with several of the remainder either unlikely to run here in favour of the Champion Stakes or due to the ground.
As much as I like Olympic Glory, and I would not begrudge him the win as I feel he’s been a little unfairly lost in the shuffle this year behind Toronado due to their shared connections, I have been Dawn Approach through and through from day one and can’t desert him now at the bitter end.
The Champion Stakes might not have a Frankel this year but it does have the horse that chased him home last year getting ground that he will absolutely relish.
Cirrus Des Aigles (11/10) looked a spent force for most of this season but the return of softer ground has seen a renaissance in the old boy and he looked back to his peak when running away the Prix Dollar at Longchamp just under two weeks ago.
The apple of Corrine Barande-Barbe’s eye has been pummeled in the betting all week long and continues to shorten given that he is proven on a surface with plenty of give.
1m2f is definitely his optimum trip too so the stars look aligned for a huge run from the horse that sprung a little bit of a shock when winning this two years ago and then gave Frankel arguably the most he’s ever had to think about when filling the runner-up spot twelve months ago.
Of his likely opposition, Farhh is the most exciting horse but after a lay-off that has pretty much covered the whole season it looks a huge ask against a horse that looks on top of his game again. Sir Michael Stoute’s Hillstar would also be fancied over a little further but I have my reservations that this trip will be right for him.
With the rest prominent in the betting looking unlikely to now take up the engagement, Cirrus Des Aigles could feasibly go off odds on come race time and if that is the case 11/10 (and bigger if you were smart enough to get on earlier this week) could look huge.
Whatever the outcome of the big races British Champion’s Day once again promises to bring the curtain down on the flat season in some style, you just may need to bring your wellies this year.
Recommendation(s):
1pt win Estimate @ 9/4 in Long Distance Cup (William Hill)
0.5pt e/w Jack Dexter @ 13/2 in Sprint Stakes (Stan James)
0.5pt e/w The Lark @ 9/1 in Fillies’ and Mares’ (Bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Dawn Approach @ 2/1 in Queen Elizabeth II (Bet365, William Hill)
1.5pt win Cirrus Des Aigles @ 11/10 in Champion Stakes (Bet365)
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