Talking Horses

Thursday 23 January 2014

Champion Chase Preview - Festival Focus

Super Sprint - The defending champ can make it back to back wins if he arrives healthy 
Like last year the Champion Chase preview is undoubtedly going to be the briefest of my Festival Focus pieces because simply put if a healthy Sprinter Sacre turns up he wins doing handstands.

Obviously he’s not the sure thing he was last year having only raced once this year and lost his unbeaten record over fences, however there were of course mitigating circumstances.

Pulled up after only a handful of fences by Barry Geraghty the man who knows him like the back of his hand due to having not jumped with his usual exuberance, Sprinter Sacre was found after the race to be suffering from an irregular heartbeat, similar to what ailed the mighty Denman a few years back.

His future participation in any race was immediately called in to doubt but he was quite quickly announced to be healthy again and has been building up towards a tilt at retaining his Queen Mother crown ever since.

The fact that Geraghty was so quick to relinquish that unbeaten record shows just how careful Seven Barrows are with their superstar and you can rest assured that there’s no way he’ll run come March unless he is back to his unparalleled best.

With several bookies now NRNB you can back the reigning champ safe in the knowledge that if he doesn’t run you get your money back and the fact that he is available at best odds of 8/11 with that concession is a gift, because to me if he runs he wins.

If you’re feeling exceptionally confident he’ll get to the festival then you can get him at the frankly ludicrous price of Evens but to me the risk that they decide not to chance him is too great when having what by my standards is a hefty bet.

Opposition is quite frankly thin on the ground – Cue Card could have been a likely one to give Sprinter Sacre a race but he isn’t even entered and other than Sire De Grugy who has been mopping up in this division in Sprinter’s absence it’s 10/1 bar which just shows the lack of depth in the division this year; presumably because Nicky Henderson’s star has scared most of them in to a different division.

Another problem with finding a more original selection than the odds on favourite for this race is that at least half of the first ten in the betting may not even run here. Yes, you have the NRNB concession but it’s difficult to make a case for horses that could be being trained for a different distance.

At least with Sprinter Sacre you know that if he runs at the festival it will be in this race.

So what of Sire De Grugy? He’s proved himself to be a very good horse indeed this season but he just doesn’t do it for me. If Sprinter Sacre doesn’t run he’s the likely winner but if Sprinter does run then I suspect Sire De Grugy will take a huge walk in the betting – 5/2 NRNB doesn’t appeal at all at present and if the selection doesn’t make it, at that price I’d still be looking for something to take Sire De Grugy on with.

You may be asking what he has to do to get some respect and he does already have my respect but I just don’t think he’s faced particularly good horses this year and there’s an air of him being the best of a bad and pretty exposed bunch.

His defeat to Kid Cassidy in the Shloer Chase, admittedly giving lumps of weight away, didn’t convince me that Cheltenham is his track either and with or without Sprinter Sacre, though he’s undoubtedly the form horse going in to the race, I can see him being vulnerable and worthy of taking on at a short enough price.

It’s not original and you won’t get rich quickly by backing him, but if a fit and healthy Sprinter Sacre lines up to defend his crown in this year’s Champion Chase it will take a herculean effort to dethrone him and as it stands I just don’t see a horse capable of doing that in this field.

Recommendation:

Sprinter Sacre 3.5pts win @ 8/11 NRNB (Paddy Power)

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