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| Two Bob - Namesakes Boston Bob and last year's winner Bobs Worth are my two for the Gold Cup this year |
This year rather than going through the races in order I’m going to tackle them as and when I solidify my thoughts on a certain race, so with that in mind first up for 2014 is the big one – the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
My ante-post punting has been somewhat of a disaster in the last twelve months but with many firms now going Non Runner No Bet on the main races at the festival you can now bet with the reassurance that should your horse not line up you will at least get your stake back.
In the aftermath of the last National Hunt season I put up Boston Bob at 25/1 for this year’s Gold Cup and in spite of him having fallen on his final start of the season at Punchestown I remained confident over the summer.
Recent news that he is perhaps to be sent down the World Hurdle route though, having returned over timber in impressive fashion, has really dampened my enthusiasm.
With the more recent news though that Willie Mullins’ main Gold Cup hope Sir Des Champs is out for the season a glimmer of hope returned that as Mullins has the potentially brilliant Annie Power for the World Hurdle Boston Bob may yet line up in the race he is made for.
Yes his jumping let him down on more than one occasion last season and he is somewhat of a plodder but he stays and in the Gold Cup on more than likely bad ground that is the name of the game.
People say his record round Cheltenham isn’t great having been beaten a short-priced favourite in the Albert Bartlett in 2012 and falling in the RSA last season. If you ask me though he should have two festival wins to his name – he was second in the Albert Bartlett staying on strongly but failing to catch the ill-fated winner and then looked the winner last season before coming to grief at the final fence.
Jumping is the name of the game but if he’d jumped that fence in the RSA I think we’d be talking about an RSA winner and he’d surely be getting more respect than he has been.
With Ruby Walsh no longer riding for Paul Nicholls if Boston Bob was to line-up then he would surely benefit from having the master on board, a man that seems to be able to get the best out of him.
From an ante-post perspective my 25/1 is still widely available which is disappointing but that will be more in line with Paddy Power’s current price of 12/1 if the decision is made to go for the big one with him so at NRNB he still looks worth an investment.
Obviously there’s the danger he doesn’t run in which case we need a back-up and it’s boring but there’s really no need to look beyond the favourite.
Last year’s winner Bobs Worth had people quick to write him off after running nowhere near his best in the Betfair Chase but he showed he still maintains every ounce of his talent and courage when winning the Lexus over Christmas.
That win in Ireland saw him bet right back down to a short price and that only contracted further with the news of Sir Des Champs’ absence from the race.
Bobs Worth is the defending champion though and will surely be even better than in the Lexus back at his beloved Cheltenham. People are often unfair on him labelling him a grinder, yes he is tough as teak but showed in the Lexus that he also has a turn of foot and he’ll no doubt be staying on better than anything up the hill come the 14th March.
One disappointing element about Bobs Worth for the Gold Cup at the moment is that I suspect you’ll actually get a better price about him on the day of the race, further driving a nail in to the coffin of ante-post betting.
The purposes of these pieces though is to tip an ante-post bet, or two, for each race, so with that in mind the sponsors 9/4 NRNB looks fair enough about a horse that looks more than capable of joining a select bunch of horses by following up in the Gold Cup.
Challengers do, in all honesty, look thin on the ground this year as evidenced by Boston Bob being a general sixth in the betting when connections have all but stated he will go down the hurdles route.
In King George winner Silviniaco Conti though both Bobs could have a fight on their hands should they both line-up.
Travelling ominously well in this race twelve months ago when coming down, many offered the school of thought that Conti would have won the race had he stayed upright.
I’m not so sure about that but I definitely think he’d have hit the board and though he had looked a little like that fall may have knocked the stuffing out of him a bit in his races since, he bounced right back to his best in no uncertain terms on Boxing Day when handing Betfair Chase winner Cue Card a beating at Kempton.
Cheltenham will be a different story though and Conti will need to prove he really is the out and out stayer Paul Nicholls claims him to be if he’s to out battle Bobs Worth up that gruelling Cheltenham hill.
If you fancy him I think 7/2 is a good price for a King George winner but given the choice between him and Bobs Worth it has to be the one who’s been there and done it for me and no matter how well Conti was travelling last year if you underestimate just how stamina sapping that Cheltenham run-in is you’re going to come unstuck.
I’ve never quite been able to warm to Cue Card and have had my fingers burned a couple of times as a result. I’ll hold my hands up and say that I was one of the people adamant he wouldn’t stay but so far this season he’s won a Betfair Chase and been second in a King George so I think we can finally put that theory to bed.
That said staying 3m round Kempton albeit looking out on his feet in the straight is a very different proposition to staying the Gold Cup trip up that hill and there is always the prospect of Cue Card ending up back defending his Ryanair crown as well.
The Tizzard team seem ready to take their chance in the big one however and Cue Card is already a multiple festival winner, has bags of class and has to be feared if taking his chance.
I do still think in spite of everything I’ve said above that he’ll be outstayed up the hill though if the more and out and out stayers already discussed are still standing and in contention at that point.
First Lieutenant has a bridesmaid reputation and it’s easy to see why, he will more than likely find one or two too good again here but he deserves a chance at the big one and with Sir Des Champs out that will almost certainly happen this year now.
I backed Al Ferof for the King George and was encouraged by the way he stayed on at the end, with only two runs in the last twelve months though he’s still difficult to get to the bottom of at the minute.
Another run is due and he may need to be re-evaluated after that but on the basis of what I’ve seen this season to date he doesn’t currently appeal for this race.
Dynaste would have rated a serious contender had he not blown up so badly in the King George and I do have a niggle in my mind that the Pipe team don’t fancy him for a slog round Cheltenham after bottling it last season and opting for the Jewson.
He ran with credit in the Betfair Chase though and a reproduction of that form would certainly see him go close but again I probably need to see something else from him before considering him for the Gold Cup.
Of the outsiders if he didn’t already have two leading contenders I’d be keen on Rocky Creek’s each-way chances for Paul Nicholls but at the moment I think it’s probably unlikely he’ll run with Al Ferof and Conti in there.
Though he’s been appalling so far this season Long Run could turn out to have looked massive at 40/1, but on his 2013-2014 form to date you’re taking a huge gamble that he can return to his brilliant best – he does love a slog though, or he did more accurately.
Outside of the first three in the betting it really does look wide open this year and I can genuinely see something currently available at a big price getting in to a place, but for me it’s a case of two bob this year and whether I get both of them running or just the defending champ I’m going in to the Gold Cup confident that I have the winner.
Recommendation:
Bobs Worth 1pt win @ 9/4 NRNB (Betfred)
Already Advised:
Boston Bob 1pt @ 25/1
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