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| Bold Showing - Giovanni Boldini can win the UAE Derby |
I don’t have a strong opinion this year on the world’s richest horse race, other than that I think last year’s Derby winner, and current favourite for the race Ruler Of The World looks vulnerable and that last year’s fourth Side Glance, the rank outsider of them all, could again outrun his price amidst reports of impressive work out on the course earlier today.
I do however have some stronger opinions on some of the races on the undercard.
Last year in my preview although I got the World Cup spectacularly wrong I managed to shout out two winners and a runner-up from my other three fancies – including 15/2 UAE Derby winner Lines Of Battle.
This time around two of those three horses are back again and about to once again receive my kiss of death and although Lines Of Battle isn’t back, his trainer Aidan O’Brien saddles one in the UAE Derby – in his bid to win it for the third straight year – that has a very similar profile to last year’s winner and could chart a similar course this season.
Giovanni Boldini is by the same sire as Lines Of Battle – the emerging American sire War Front – and would be coming here a Breeders’ Cup winner if not for some Mike Smith magic aboard Outstrip in the Juvenile back in November.
Though unraced on Tapeta Giovanni Boldini has won twice on Dundalk’s all weather surface and has a dirt pedigree. I was really impressed with him at Santa Anita, building on his solid third on only his second start in the Group 1 National Stakes behind Toormore at the Curragh last season.
He once again gets the benefit of Ryan Moore onboard - who rode Lines Of Battle to victory last year – and in all honesty I’m surprised he’s not favourite.
In the Al Quoz Sprint (the following race on the card) I once again think this looks at the mercy of Mike de Kock’s Shea Shea. He’s drawn wide on the stand side but that shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience and I do think he looks very tough to beat.
His old adversaries Sole Power and Joy And Fun are back to take him on once again and although winless this horse enjoyed a brilliant UK campaign last summer and has already been here and done it.
He could end up going off much shorter on the day.
The draw hasn’t been overly kind to last year’s runner-up Gentildonna in the Sheema Classic but I still think she’s the one to beat as she tries to atone for last year’s loss to the ill-fated St. Nicholas Abbey.
I fancied her strongly for this last year and still maintain she would have won under a better ride – this year she gets the best jockey in the world Ryan Moore on board and having been putting in some dazzling pieces of work this week I’m confident she can gain compensation for twelve months ago.
Her last run was disappointing, but as a prep for this hopefully it’s now put her spot on and of course she gets that valuable weight allowance.
Again in all honesty I’m surprised she’s not favourite. That honour currently goes to brilliant Breeders’ Cup winner Magician, a horse that produced a thunderous effort to reel in The Fugue at Santa Anita at the end of last season.
The Irish 2000 Guineas winner benefited from a Ryan Moore master class that day though and though he’s drawn much better I still think Gentildonna can get the better of him.
Cirrus Des Aigles – winner of this two year’s ago – is also back again though he’s drawn widest of all and in truth I didn’t fancy him anyway, as in spite of some sort of renaissance towards the end of last season I don’t think he’s the horse he once was.
So it could turn out to be a compatriot of Gentildonna that proves her biggest threat. Denim And Ruby adds a second very strong string to the Japanese bow and has too reportedly been putting in some solid efforts on the course this week.
Recommendations:
UAE Derby – Giovanni Boldini 1pt win @ 3/1 (Bet Victor/William Hill)
Al Quoz Sprint – Shea Shea 1pt win @ 11/8 (William Hill/Paddy Power)
Sheema Classic – Gentildoona 1pt win @ 4/1 (Betfred/Paddy Power)
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