 |
| Liquid Dreams - The Liquidator has already won at Cheltenham and looks a big price for the Supreme |
Prior to Champagne Fever last year the previous four years had all seen winners priced in double figures and even the mighty Willie Mullins managed to win it with a 40/1 shot in 2007.
In fact there hasn’t been a winning favourite in the race since Brave Inca emerged victorious in 2004. The list of horses beaten in this race reads like a who’s who of National Hunt racing over the last few seasons as well: Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card, Binocular, Oscar Whisky, Somersby, even dual Royal Ascot winner Simenon trailed in last in 2012.
That all doesn’t bode particularly well for current favourite Irving, but the way in which he won the Dovecote last weekend suggests that he is more than up to the challenge of ending the losing streak of favourites in this race.
He’s unbeaten over hurdles and represents a trainer that has won this race before having taken it with Al Ferof in 2011. Paul Nicholls has been careful with this potential superstar and though I, like many people, think he would have won the Betfair Hurdle had he run, if he can land the Supreme his trainer’s caution will be more than justified.
We’ve not learned much about his constitution in his pretty facile victories to date and as with many of these novices there’s a question over whether or not he’ll come up the hill, but the way he travelled and quickened when asked last time out can’t have failed to impress and it’ll be a big shock if he isn’t in the shake-up.
With such an abysmal record in the race would you want to be backing the favourite at a best price of 5/2 though? You can argue that he looks head and shoulders above most of the opposition but I seem to remember similar things being spouted about My Tent Or Yours last season and look what happened there.
True Irving, to me, looks more capable of winning this than Nicky Henderson’s charge did last season but in a race renowned for a surprise to kick off the week I’m prepared to try and find something that can cause the now traditional upset.
Willie Mullins’ Vautour is second favourite at present and prior to this past weekend had been the clear favourite for the race on the back of his Grade 1 win on Irish trials day at Leopardstown.
Ruby Walsh deserves most of the credit for that win though dictating the race from the front, something he’ll certainly not get away with here. Prior to that his two wins had been impressive enough if unspectacular and for me there’s a very strong feeling that if this horse was trained by anyone other than Willie Mullins he wouldn’t be as short as he is.
Couple that with a somewhat alarming drift over the last week and it’s not hard to argue there’s better value to be had elsewhere in the race, possibly even in the same yard.
As Mullins also has the third favourite in Wicklow Brave, a horse that again you wouldn’t mind betting would be a considerably better price if he were trained by anybody other than the Irish champion trainer, because Wicklow Brave hasn’t achieved as much on a race course as many of his opponents in this race.
He won three of his five bumper starts between this and last season before graduating to obstacles in good style landing a nothing maiden hurdle easily and taking Listed honours last time out.
He’s not really proven himself at the top level yet like many of these have, but the vibes have been strong and he’s been well supported in the last week or so which has seen his price tumble.
He also fits many of the trends for the race and looks to be a more than capable second string for Mullins. At his earlier price he may have been the selection but now he looks plenty short enough considering.
That said with Paddy Power’s concession of money back if your horse finishes second, third or fourth you have a safety net if one of the fancied horses runs its race but doesn’t quite get up.
Josses Hill was smashed by 22l on his bumper debut by Faugheen – Willie Mullins’ Neptune favourite – before making the switch to Nicky Henderson.
He’s subsequently won a bumper and a maiden hurdle and ran a stormer to just go down in the Tolworth to stable mate Royal Boy.
The two of them were well clear of some good horses that day and given connections he has to factor in to calculations.
A horse conquered in the Tolworth is the one I like for this race though, as prior to his capitulation in that race The Liquidator was my horse for the Supreme.
On the back of that I dismissed him but having gone through the race now I just can’t get away from his dominant performance in the Supreme Trial back in November.
He powered well clear up the hill that day beating a horse that was on a seven-timer to score by 15l in a Grade 2 race.
There’d been talk in the build-up to the Tolworth that David Pipe may elect not to run him as the track and race might not suit, but then even after it was rearranged to Kempton another track that arguably wouldn’t have played to his strengths they still elected to run him again in spite of voicing reservations beforehand.
He duly flopped spectacularly and it does take a big leap of faith to get past that performance as he was beaten a long way out. I can’t help but feel they ran him as it was the right race for him in terms of timings and preparing for this so ever the optimist I’m going to take that leap and try to look past it.
The trends may say you need a horse that won last time out but The Liquidator was a Grade 1 bumper winner in Ireland and was fourth in the Champion Bumper here last season so unlike so many of his rivals we know that he’ll come up that hill.
I may sound like a broken record in that respect but it’s important not to underestimate just how gruelling that Cheltenham run-in can be for a novice and The Liquidator has shown twice that he certainly gets home round Prestbury Park over this distance.
If you go back through his other runs that Tolworth defeat was just too uncharacteristically bad to be true and granted a strong pace, which he’s almost certain to get here and hopefully on the sort of ground he was so impressive on here in November (he has won on heavy though) I’m hoping he can bounce back and fulfil the promise he showed before Kempton.
The Paddy Power concession gives you somewhat of a cushion if he gets near, and even though as a result of said offer they are a few points shorter than top price 18/1 still looks a very fair each-way bet to me.
Perhaps insanely, I have a slight feeling David Pipe may be a sneaky outsider in the top trainer market and The Liquidator can be the first of potentially many for the Pond House handler at this season’s festival.
Recommendation:
The Liquidator 0.5pt each-way @ 18/1 (Paddy Power) [NRNB, Money back if finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th]
No comments:
Post a Comment