Belmont Stakes Preview

California Dreamin' - California Chrome can end a 36 year wait for a Triple Crown winner

The Triple Crown dream is well and truly still alive in the US after California Chrome’s fairytale story continued with victory in the Preakness on Saturday.

With two legs of American racing’s Holy Grail under his belt, California Chrome has now arrived in New York ahead of the third and final leg – the Belmont Stakes – on 7th June.

Art Sherman’s charge has history and some pretty damning stats to overcome if he’s to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 but he is head and shoulders above the other three-year-olds in the US this season and hasn’t exactly had hard races in Kentucky or Baltimore.

In the immediate aftermath of the Preakness Ladbrokes went 2/1 that he lifts the Triple Crown which looked generous, they’ve subsequently clipped that to 6/4 but with news that Danza, Kentucky Derby third and to my eye California Chrome’s main danger in the Belmont, will miss the race that 6/4 still looks pretty tasty given many other books have him closer to even money.

The layers will say that he won’t stay and we can’t say with any degree of confidence that they’re wrong at this point, but he was eased down in Kentucky over 1m2f and he’s looked to always have something left in the tank at the finish of his races this year.

Belmont’s lung-bursting straight will push California Chrome to the limit but his opposition will also need to stay the distance too and it could just be that if Victor Espinoza can unleash that devastating turn of foot we’ve seen at Churchill Downs and Pimlico he’ll put enough daylight between the people’s horse and his rivals that even if he tires on the run-in that even the strongest closers – Commanding Curve and Ride On Curlin were gaining with every stride in the two previous Triple Crown races – will struggle to get to him.

He doesn’t need to win pretty, he just needs to win.

California Chrome has already written his name in to the history books but if he can win the Belmont in two and a half weeks time he’ll end a thirty six year wait for a Triple Crown champion.

The rapidly growing army of Chromies think he’ll do it and call me a romantic but so do I and I dare say with a decent draw he’ll end up going off a lot shorter than 6/4.

Recommendation:

Belmont Stakes - 2pts win California Chrome @ 6/4 (Ladbrokes)