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| Certain-ty? - Can Avenir Certain remain unbeaten in this year's Arc? |
For the second year in a row I will be lucky enough to be at Longchamp for this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and as a result there’s rarely been a day I haven’t been checking the market for this year’s race.
With Arc Trials day coming up this Sunday and with the market having once again been shaken up following Sea The Moon’s pretty emphatic defeat at Baden-Baden at the weekend, now seemed a good time to highlight two horses I have already backed for the Arc but still remain worthy of a bet at their current prices given their current profile.
Rather than go through in great detail why the horses at the top of the market can’t win in my opinion, given this is an ante-post piece I’ll just give you my logic for the selections and a quick summary of the other main contenders…
…Beginning with last year’s heroine Treve, a horse that through an unusual stroke of inspiration I backed to win the Vermeille and then the Arc prior to Trials day last season.
As a result Treve will always hold a dear place in my heart – she was even a table name at my wedding back in June – but even in the immediate aftermath of last year’s race I thought her chances of following up were slim.
Given what has happened thus far this season nothing has really changed and her current price is pretty despicable all things considered.
Nothing would make me happier than if she could back up, and if she rolls in the Vermeille as she did last year then who’s to say she can’t, but given the stats and her current price she’s not going to be carrying my money for a second successive year.
Derby winner Australia seems unlikely to run so he’s quickly ignored here, if he were to turn up though then obviously he’s a major player.
Sea The Moon looked a ridiculous price to me before the weekend just gone and that defeat has seen him drift to a more appropriate price, but I wasn’t convinced before and no matter how much they left to work on for the Arc unless he was to drift out even further still he wouldn’t be of interest to me.
The same sort of sentiment applies to Taghrooda, yes she’s an Oaks and King George winner but both were pretty sub par renewals and no matter how impressive she was there she was put firmly in her place by Tapestry at York with no discernable excuses.
Given 3YO fillies’ records in this race she is dismissed at your peril but there are two other horses falling in to that bracket that rate better and more sporting value to me.
The Japanese are desperate to win this race and have come agonisingly close on so many occasions, but given the shaky nature of most of the leading protagonists for this year’s renewal this could finally be the year they do it.
Just A Way would seem the most likely of their contingent to finally land the Arc but there are stamina doubts and though I’m sure they’ll all be in rude health come the first Sunday in October the traveling is always a concern for me. Orfevre took in a trial race too once arriving in Europe, whereas this time around it’s straight to the Arc for the raiders, again for me not necessarily a positive.
If Japan were to do it the benefit to the sport would be exponential so if I am able to witness history firsthand then I’ll be celebrating with the best of them, I’m just not overly confident that it will happen for them any time soon.
The one horse in the Arc market that has been consistently overlooked – until recently at least – is, like Treve last season, a dual French Guineas and Oaks winner and her name is Avenir Certain.
I say until recently as she’s now joint second favourite with Paddy Power. There is still some 8/1 about though and for an unbeaten horse with a very similar profile to last year’s runaway winner and that of course falls in to that dominant 3YO filly category that still seems a good price to me.
If Avenir Certain was from sexier connections one can’t help but feel maybe she’d have been talked about more in the build-up to this year’s race. Yes there are stamina concerns and her prep race was nothing more than a routine piece of work but she’s risen to every challenge she’s been faced with this season and to my eye looks have a touch of brilliance about her. She wasn’t stopping in the Diane and has shown she can handle the hustle and bustle of French racing.
I can genuinely see her – given the huge amounts of luck you tend to need in this race – flying home down the outside with that deft turn of foot she’s exhibited on more than one occasion already this season.
Jean-Claude Rouget’s charge should handle whatever ground Longchamp throws up on Arc day and though an appearance in a major trial would have been preferable there’s not much you can knock this horse for and she should be shorter than 8/1 for me given the volatility at the head of the market. When others have fluffed their lines she’s been a model of consistency and we still may not have seen the best of her.
A perhaps more left of field pick for this year’s Arc is a filly called We Are trained by the master Freddy Head.
Technically unbeaten, though the record books will now show otherwise due to two disqualifications, We Are looked a filly of the highest order when landing the Prix Saint-Alary back in May and was one of the favourites for the Prix Diane before fate took a cruel hand in her story.
Scratched due to not being right in the lead up to the race, it was later discovered she was suffering from an ovarian tumour. Successfully operated on and now back in training I had hoped to see her line up in the Vermeille, but she is unfortunately absent with the Prix du Prince d’Orange at Longchamp later this month reportedly now the target.
Having been disqualified from all but one of her wins due to elevated testosterone levels caused by the tumour it would be some tale if We Are could win the Arc.
Of course she’ll have to be something very special indeed to do so given her health issues this year but this a race that often produces something incredible and with some silly prices still floating around on Betfair for small amounts I can’t resist advising a small exchange bet on We Are.
If anyone can get this filly back to the top of her game it’s Freddy Head and prior to her ailment I’d have put her not far behind the best 3YO fillies in France which theoretically should see her appear a lot more prominently in the market for the Arc, theoretically.
If she wins her trial she will surely shorten dramatically and if that was to happen we could then have a very interesting bet on our hands, of course the alternative alas is probably much more likely.
Either way, this year’s Arc is looking even more open than usual and you’d be a brave punter to wager that the market won’t be in for another dramatic shake-up after trials day on Sunday. For now though I’m going to dare to dream that history may just repeat itself come 5th October.
Recommendation(s):-
Avenir Certain 1pt win @ 8/1 (Sky Bet, Bet365)
We Are 0.25pt win @ 90.0 (Betfair)
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