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| Believe in Belief - Shared Belief can win the Breeders' Cup Classic |
Time has conspired against me somewhat this week preventing me from going quite as in depth as I would like on every race – I did however get Mile and Juvenile previews up last week which you can view by clicking the respective links – so I’ll simply have to put up my fancies for the weekend and try to explain why I’ve backed them.
Starting on the Friday, and first up we have the Dirt Mile and Goldencents. Last year’s winner is my idea of the weekend’s banker and providing he can get out and get on to the lead from his draw in one then he should take some stopping once again.
His form this season might not look all that on paper but that doesn’t tell the whole story and he’s been running some mighty figures in defeat with legitimate excuses when coming up short.
Forget the controversy surrounding his trainer, it is essentially just a name change and nothing else, Goldencents can become yet another horse to back up at the Breeders’ Cup, and though not all out disastrous it will be a disappointing start to the weekend if he’s beaten.
Also on Friday night Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable, if able to overcome a wide draw, should take all the beating in the Distaff. Without doubt the best 3YO filly in America her task in the Distaff was made all the more easier last week with the defection of Beholder.
Running some monster races in the first part of the season Untapable’s only defeat this term came when taking on the boys in the Haskell, when in all honesty nothing went right for Rosie Napravnik’s mount.
She returned at Parx in September with a workmanlike effort but almost certainly needed the run, yet still did enough to win and she should be spot on for the Distaff as a result.
Her work in the lead up to the race has been attracting plaudits trackside and though I’m not as confident as I was going in to the Oaks, if she can put last year’s flop at Santa Anita behind her and not get caught too wide (as she did in the Haskell) from the draw, Untapable looks to have a strong in the Ladies Classic.
Moving on to Saturday and we start with another defending champion in Dank – the price has fallen apart a bit in the last few days and her lack of a recent outing is far from ideal, but people crabbing the form she’s been in this season as opposed to last are probably over-exaggerating slightly.
Third in Dubai and then fifth at Royal Ascot, both races were of the highest calibre and she was hardly disgraced in either. If anyone can bring her back to the boil for this it’s Sir Michael Stoute and she will of course have the services of the greatest jockey in the world in Ryan Moore.
This looks a winnable race and though short she sets a clear standard, if she is to be beaten this could be one of the turf races usually plundered by the Europeans that the home team take a hand in this time around and though Stephanie’s Kitten will undoubtedly be popular it’s Emollient I like as an each-way alternative to the favourite.
In the Filly and Mare Sprint I’m really keen on the chances of Artemis Agrotera and have been for a while, even before Midnight Lucky’s defection. The selection’s price has obviously contracted since the ante-post favourite dropped out, but still remains a good price given the strength of some of the performances she’s turned in so far this season, specifically a demolition job in the Ballerina at Saratoga back in August.
Not as good last time out, she still overcame adversity to get up and just grab the win and even though east coast horses don’t exactly have a stellar record when shipping out west for the Breeders’ Cup, any replication of that Ballerina romp and it will take a good horse to beat her.
Dangers abound still though in a race that has depth in spite of a high profile absentee, but after Groupie Doll lit up this race for the last two years I’m hoping Artemis Agrotera can continue the trend of scintillating performances in the Filly & Mare Sprint.
In the Turf, perhaps somewhat surprisingly given that I’m usually against him, I’m sweet on the chances of Telescope in a race that will almost surely go to a raider.
Put away with this in mind after some huge performances over the summer – that Hardwicke romp followed by a great effort in the King George before being found out over an inadequate trip in the Juddmonte.
Telescope’s form ties in with all the best middle distance European strands from this season, he’ll also race on Lasix for the first time, gets that man Ryan Moore in the saddle and finally gets some road-like ground which he’ll adore.
The draw in one is not ideal for avoiding trouble, but if any man can keep him out of harm’s way it should be Ryan Moore and on the plus side at least he should save plenty of ground.
Flintshire’s Arc second also puts him at the head of the European raiding party but I’ve been burned by Arc also rans at this meeting before and as strong as that form is, and although he too finally gets ground he’ll be crying out for, I get the sense that Telescope might just be primed to put in a huge performance.
In the Sprint it’s another of last year’s returning heroes and the only horse bidding for a three-peat this year Secret Circle. Bob Baffert executed a training performance up there with his best to get this horse back to the track to land a Breeders’ Cup race last year.
This year he bids for history as he attempts to become only the second horse to win three Breeders’ Cup races (Goldikova being the other) after winning the Juvenile Sprint in 2011 and this very race last year.
His preparations this time around give you more confidence that he can do it and with a good draw and a master trainer behind him you’d be brave to bet against it happening and bringing down the house.
It’s a tough race though and Hong Kong raider Rich Tapestry – bidding for his own piece of history to – looks a formidable barrier to Secret Circle achieving immortality; while Palace, who, other than a blip last time out, would probably be disputing favouritism would be dangerous to underestimate if bouncing back to form.
Call me a sentimentalist though but I’m going with the fairytale here.
Finally it’s the big one, the Breeders’ Cup Classic and although my heart would love to see Kentucky Derby and Preakness hero California Chrome back to his best, my head is telling me that Shared Belief could just cement himself as America’s next great superstar with victory here.
Having missed the Triple Crown races after suffering a set back at the start of the year, America’s champion two-year-old from last year has gone from strength to strength in the second half of the season, including victories in the Pacific Classic and the Awesome Again Stakes.
He looks the real deal and has been putting in performances that mark him down as a potential great.
The Classic is never an easy race to win though and California Chrome aside the competition is fierce – albeit dominated by three-year-olds – including Haskell winner Bayern, Triple Crown-spoiling Belmont winner Tonalist and our very own Toast Of New York.
Shared Belief is a short enough price for the centrepiece of Breeders’ Cup weekend, but in my mind rightly so and he can achieve the greatness already bestowed upon him by many by claiming victory in the final race of the meeting.
Recommendation(s):
Dirt Mile – Goldencents 2pts win @ 5/4 (Bet Victor)
Distaff – Untapable 1pt win @ 10/3 (Coral)
Filly and Mare Turf – Dank 1pt win @ 2/1 (Bet 365, Sky Bet, Bet Victor)
Filly and Mare Sprint – Artemis Agrotera 1pt win @ 3/1 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor, Bet 365)
Turf – Telescope 1pt win @ 7/2 (Betfred)
Sprint – Secret Circle 1pt win @ 5/1 (Betfred, Paddy Power)
Classic – Shared Belief 2pts win @ 7/4 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor)
Already Advised:
Mile – Seek Again 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1
Juvenile – Daredevil 1pt win @ 7/2
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