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| Taq To The Future - Taquin Du Seuil can announce arrival in the big leagues in the Betfair Chase |
Responsible for some fabulous races since its inception a little under a decade ago, this year’s renewal looks set to be one of the most informative in a while given how open the staying chase division looks this season.
Won last year by Cue Card in tremendous style, the reigning champ and the two placed horses from last year look set to lock horns again in 2014 with all three currently heading the betting.
It’s the new kid on the block that I like this year though and much like Silviniaco Conti two years ago, the time looks right for a pretender to grab a table with the big boys.
Taquin Du Seuil translated useful French flat form in to a solid Grade 1-winning novice hurdle campaign, before rounding out an excellent novice chase season last term with victory at the festival.
The form of his JLT win at Cheltenham last March has already been boosted this season with Wonderful Charm and more recently, and impressively, Uxizandre coming out and winning and after a lacklustre reappearance himself (behind Wonderful Charm) the Jonjo O’Neill inmate ran much better at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall at the beginning of the month.
His jumping wasn’t great that day, but he was doing his best work at the finish having looked outpaced initially when things got serious and given the anomaly with the distance covered that day you’d have to think that a race run over the advertised distance this time will only aid his cause!
As surely will more juice in the ground, once thought of as simply a mudlark, Taquin Du Seuil quashed those sentiments when winning the JLT on good ground, but he’s generally been at his best when the mud is flying.
The going at Haydock is currently soft and with smatterings of rain forecast in the these parts over the next few days, including on Saturday, the ground should be closer to his optimum than the good ground he chased Menorah home on at Wetherby come race time.
The slower ground should also help him brush up the jumping and with a course victory under his belt everything looks in place for a big run.
Barry Geraghty will take over in the saddle from the injured AP McCoy and Geraghty has ridden the horse once before, so while having a different jockey on board for such a huge race is not ideal, he has at least ridden him before and obviously it’s Barry Geraghty so you couldn’t really ask for a better substitute.
To me Taquin Du Seuil will be very difficult to keep out of the places here and with question marks surrounding almost everything in the race this could be the day he announces himself as a major player in a division lacking a stand-out performer at present.
Of course, it won’t be easy but with Cue Card returning here off the back of an injury and a tame effort in the Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance there’s enough evidence to be taking him on at 3/1.
That Haldon run was a prep for this of course and if allowed to dictate like he did last year he’ll take some stopping.
As would an on-song Silviniaco Conti, but he ran really badly at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall, again in an admitted prep run at a time when Paul Nicholls’s horses were all needing the run, and needs to improve for that reappearance.
He’s started to look far from straight forward on occasion and though probably the best horse in the race on form if he turned up in one of his errant moods he’s certainly beatable.
The same can also be said for Dynaste – the biggest danger to the selection for me – he nearly rewarded my support last year when running his best race up to that point in chasing home Cue Card, and he atoned for festival disappointment in 2012 by winning the Ryanair back in March, he has however been known to chuck in a stinker every now and again, and winning this first time up will be a big ask.
David Pipe’s horses are going well though, as are Philip Hobbs’ and Charlie Hall winner Menorah, who had several of these behind that day, probably deserves to be a bit shorter.
He’s probably priced up on the fact that he too is an inconsistent sort and for every Charlie Hall-esque performance, he is as likely to turn in an absolute horror show. The yard is absolutely flying though and you’d be a brave man to suggest they can’t keep this run going, but whether Menorah is truly up to this I have my doubts.
Of the rest, Harry Topper would want the ground a lot softer you’d think, Double Ross looks out of his depth (though did travel well for a long way in the Charlie Hall), Medermit would need a glorious return to his best form to get involved and The Giant Bolster looks about the hardest horse in training to predict – other than that he’ll run an absurdly good race in the Gold Cup – to be carrying any sort of confident money.
In closing, though there is a bit still to prove for Taquin Du Seuil he looks to have a lot going for him coming in to this race and might just have a fitness edge on some of these, all of whom also have doubts about them.
It’ll be a surprise to see something outside of the top four in the betting emerge victorious in all honesty, so with that in mind, at the prices, it could pay to side with the young pretender still to show his hand in a division right there for the taking.
Best Odds:
Cue Card 3/1
Silviniaco Conti 7/2
Dynaste 4/1
Taquin Du Seuil 7/1
Menorah 8/1
Harry Topper 16/1
Double Ross 20/1
Medermit 25/1
The Giant Bolster 40/1
Recommendation:
Taquin Du Seuil 0.5pt each way @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
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