 |
| Jack the Lad - Jack Hobbs looks the value alternative to the favourite in the Derby. |
As impressed as I was with Golden Horn’s Dante win, at a general 7/4 and given his owner-breeder’s fears over his stamina you simply have to try and take him on and be prepared to look foolish in doing so if his undoubted class is enough to get him home in front or if he in fact does stay and all this speculation is proved unfounded.
That said, it’s easier said than done to find an alternative with question marks hanging over so many of the field for one reason or another.
Prior to the Chester Vase I had a daft each-way bet on Hans Holbein at a ridiculous price which given how many of the other Coolmore battalion have failed to make it to the race or even impress on their way to it in the case of some of the survivors no longer seems that daft.
Though he’s still an each-way price he doesn’t exactly scream value really though and you’d have to be concerned about how desperate Ballydoyle seemingly were to add a curveball entry to the Derby in spite of having him, even though this never did materialise in the end.
Hans Holbein does look though, unlike the favourite, a guaranteed stayer hitting the line in the Chester Vase in good style and struggling to be pulled up afterwards.
I expect him to once again bounce out and try to make all here which would seem the sensible option given the stamina doubts over many of his rivals and in some cases the potential worry over whether they’ll handle Epsom’s idiosyncratic course, trying to get them out of their comfort zone as quickly as possible.
Recent money would suggest though that in fact Giovanni Canaletto is going to be Aidan O’Brien’s first string, and if that does transpire to be the case then there is the concern Hans Holbein will be sacrificed as a pacemaker for his stable mate, it also means Ryan Moore will likely ride the former, but when you can call on the jockey that has landed two of the last three renewals of the Derby as a stand in it’s not a bad thing really I suppose.
Giovanni Canaletto had been a bit of a buzz horse over the winter and in the early part of this season, but he was beaten at evens when he finally returned to the racecourse last month and though he was doing his best work at the end, suggesting a step up in trip would suit, I was thoroughly put off by his high head carriage.
He looked a difficult ride and doesn’t appeal to me as an Epsom type at all, it will likely take all of Ryan Moor’s genius in the saddle to steer him home victorious, not something you want in a Derby horse against a red hot favourite.
Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park constantly improved last season and proved me wrong at Doncaster and he could do so again here because I don’t fancy his chances in the Derby at all.
We’ve repeatedly been told he needs dig in the ground, which he looks unlikely to get, he looked to struggle with Epsom’s camber at Breakfast with the Stars and his jockey has reportedly refused to completely commit to the ride in spite of his other potential mounts looking a couple of no-hopers.
Couple that with the fact that though he will probably stay and finished third in the Dante he might not have the turn of foot to match some of his rivals here and I’d be tempted to lay him for a place as a result.
Dermot Weld’s Zawraq has drifted in the betting today on the back of coming in lame from his morning work, and though connections remain hopeful of getting him to Epsom it’s not exactly an ideal prep and at a short enough price already it’s enough to put me off a horse, that although admittedly impressive thus far, has only had two starts to date.
Success Days, like Golden Horn supplemented for the race, would also likely want rain to have a realistic chance, but he has been impressive in that sort of ground so far this season and couldn’t have done more than he has, this is a different test altogether though but it would be some story if he could do it.
Perceived Coolmore third string Kilimanjaro, though a trial winner, looks up against it given that the Lingfield Derby Trial is anything but what it’s name suggests and though he too will surely get home he’ll need to show a great deal of improvement to make the frame against these much better rivals.
If his horse whisperer can work his magic at the start then Criquette Head-Maarek’s Epicuris is no back number and rates a bit of value at 25/1, but it’s a risk to back a horse that could blow its chance before the race even begins.
With Storm The Stars held by Hans Holbein on Chester form that really only leaves Jack Hobbs and if you can get past the stat that no Dante runner-up has ever reversed the form with his York conqueror at Epsom then there’s a lot to like about John Gosden’s recent Godolphin purchase.
He looked electric at Breakfast with the Stars handling Epsom’s undulations with aplomb and given that the Dante was only his third start he could still have more to offer.
He was well beaten by Golden Horn at York there’s no argument about that and with that one also only having his third start you can’t blame his inexperience as the deciding factor however with the stamina question seemingly not as much of a concern for this lad that could shorten the gap between the two Gosden horses further and at four times the price it’s Jack Hobbs that looks the value given how far the two of them came clear of their rivals in the Dante.
I think the theme for this Derby is if Golden Horn stays he wins, but if he doesn’t then it looks wide open and it’s a tough call between Hans Holbein and Jack Hobbs as the selection.
The former is still the better price for an each-way punt but the latter looks to hold the more realistic chance and is still slightly better at the prices than an each-way bet to nothing so shades the vote.
Recommendation:
Jack Hobbs 0.5pt each-way @ 6/1 (Bet Victor, Boylesports, Betfair Sportsbook)
No comments:
Post a Comment