The Derby 2015 Preview

Jack the Lad - Jack Hobbs looks the value alternative to the favourite in the Derby.

Unlike the Oaks, the Derby has a strong favourite taking a big chunk out of the market meaning there are some bigger prices about some of the leading contenders as things stand.

As impressed as I was with Golden Horn’s Dante win, at a general 7/4 and given his owner-breeder’s fears over his stamina you simply have to try and take him on and be prepared to look foolish in doing so if his undoubted class is enough to get him home in front or if he in fact does stay and all this speculation is proved unfounded.

That said, it’s easier said than done to find an alternative with question marks hanging over so many of the field for one reason or another.

Prior to the Chester Vase I had a daft each-way bet on Hans Holbein at a ridiculous price which given how many of the other Coolmore battalion have failed to make it to the race or even impress on their way to it in the case of some of the survivors no longer seems that daft.

The Oaks 2015 Preview

Crystal Ballin' - Crystal Zvezda looks a major player in the Oaks.

It took a while to get there, but with the middle two classics of the season just days away now the markets for this year’s Derby and Oaks have finally taken shape.

The fancy prices may have disappeared now but with so much uncertainty over so many contenders in both races over the last few months playing the waiting game with Epsom 2015 has probably been a smart move.

With a short-priced favourite in the Derby there definitely looks to be some value lurking and although the Oaks looks more open, at least as far as the betting goes, I’m pretty keen on the chances of one of the main challengers.

The filly in question is Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Zvezda, an impressive winner of a Listed race at Newbury last month, the same race last year’s Oaks third Volume won en route to Epsom.

The Derby 2014 - Ante-Post

Take Cover - Bunker (background, right [in grey]) could be a live Derby contender

My ante-post punting over the last twelve months is the main reason I’m not showing a healthier profit on here than I am. However in spite of the pitfalls and frustrations that come along with long range bets, there’s just something about it I can’t resist.

Sitting on a ticket at a massive price when everybody else is on at a fraction of your odds allows you to feel smug and superior, until the horse gets absolutely stuffed of course (Dawn Approach in last year’s Derby for example).

I will not be deterred after last year’s Derby debacle though and I’m back for further punishment with a speculative bet on a horse I’ve been a big fan of for some time now.

He was my idea of a banker on Arc day when I was there last October but didn’t make the cross-Channel trip and with his form having stood up, he more than likely would have won.

With not holding an initial entry in the Derby there was some consternation over whether he would actually line up, but he features among the second entries for the race recently announced and having already bagged an Arc you can bet connections will be keen to have a go if they have a live chance in the race.

The Derby 2013 Preview

Battle of the Bolge - Can Jim Bolger & Dawn Approach repel the Coolmore ranks in the Derby?

It’s the most prestigious classic of the season on Saturday as Epsom plays host to The Derby.

With fifteen horses still in the reckoning to tackle the downs’ demanding camber and undulations as of this morning, the time seemed right to run the rule over the contenders, not all of whom are guaranteed to run as things stand.

So here in ascending order based on current price (starting with the favourite) is my runner-by-runner guide to this year’s Epsom Derby:

Dawn Approach – Unbeaten 2000 Guineas winner and heavy favourite. Has won seven from seven including three Group 1s and Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Unraced beyond 1m but sire won the Derby and looks like he should stay and handle unique demands of Epsom. Champion European two-year-old in 2012 and seems to improve with every run, dominant in 2000 Guineas and trained by a genius – the one to beat.

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2013 - Dawn Approach - Ante-post

Quick as a Flash - The copper flash can land the Arc as well as the Derby

I’m beginning to sound like a broken record here but on the back of his explosive 2000 Guineas win at the weekend and the confirmation today that he will indeed head to the Epsom Derby over 1m4f the time seems right to back Dawn Approach at what looks a big price in another market.

We’re already sitting pretty with a 12/1 slip for him in the Derby (now best priced 7/4) and if he goes on to Epsom in just under four weeks and wins then his price for what will surely then be his end of season target – the Arc – will contract massively.

A Coventry winner we know he’ll handle the large Arc field and he’s now proven he’ll go on any sort of ground, so whatever the unpredictable early October weather throws up I’d be confident he’ll handle it.

His trainer Jim Bolger is nothing short of a genius and if he elects to send this horse to Longchamp then you’d have to think that it was for good reason.

The Derby 2013 - Ante-post - Dawn Approach

Approach Play - Dawn Approach can step up and win the 2013 Derby like his sire

Jim Bolger showed off his stable star Dawn Approach at a press day yesterday and was reportedly extremely bullish about the three-year-old chestnut’s classic chances this season.

Red hot favourite for the 2000 Guineas there is no value in the colt’s price for the first classic of the season now, especially now he looks to have a very talented opponent to contend with in the Richard Hannon-trained Toronado.

However his price for the Derby – currently best priced 12/1 – looks particularly tempting as on breeding you would think he would get 1m4f; his sire New Approach of course having taken the Epsom spectacular in 2008.

I’ve always believed the step-up in trip could bring about further improvement in Dawn Approach and if that did transpire to be the case he could become one of the all time greats.

Bolger had originally not seemed entirely convinced that beyond a mile would be the way to go with his latest star but he now appears ready to find out.

Breeding as we all know doesn’t always pan out as you expect, so there’s no guarantee Dawn Approach will stay, but that is the peril of ante-post betting. If he wins the Guineas a week on Saturday, as he is widely expected to then you can almost bank on his price for the Derby contracting considerably.

For that reason the time seems right to back him for the Derby.

He’s not looked at the end of his tether in any of his runs to date over shorter trips, as his trainer points out he “switches off” so well and again that breeding does suggest greater trips would be within his wheelhouse. He is also a straight forward enough type that you would think he wouldn’t be too greatly put off by the pageantry of Derby day or the camber of Epsom.

There’s always a degree of banter in Racing in the build-up to big races but when Jim Bolger, a master of his craft, throws words around like “awesome” and describes a horse as the best he’s trained you have to sit up and take notice.

Dawn Approach has kept on winning and now having come out the other side of an atrocious winter in what for all intents and purposes appears to be pretty rude health the racing world, and classic glory, looks at his feet.

Recommendation:

2013 Derby – Dawn Approach 1pt win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)