Gold Cup 2016 – Festival Focus

Poli Express - Don Poli can enhance his Festival record to 3 out of 3 by winning the big one.

This year’s Gold Cup has been billed as one of the best in recent years and whilst a great race is surely in prospect, it is difficult to suggest a winner beyond the first six or so horses in the betting, indicating that perhaps this year’s race won’t be the deep, deep contest many had suggested.

As such, with the clutch of horses one can argue could win the race numbering but a few, there look to be some very solid place claims at the head of the market and with there still no out and out clear favourite there looks to be some boring – but sensible – each way bets to nothing or a small profit to be had, none more so than the selection.

Rather than go through why the other six or seven ‘big guns’ can and can’t win the race, as there are legitimate question marks hanging over all the main protagonists, I’ll focus on why the horse I think will win can land the festival blue riband.

In the wake of last year’s RSA I pegged Don Poli as a Gold Cup winner in waiting and backed him to ascend to such heights this season accordingly. 

A subsequent flop at Punchestown which can be stricken from the record immediately and two perceived lack lustre performances in victory this season have led to name-calling in some quarters and a general drift in the market.

He’s two from two at the festival though, showing a real liking for the gruelling Cheltenham hill and you’d have to think the way the race looks set to be run will set it up for him.

With Coneygree out there was the worry this might not be run at a frenetic pace but with Smad Place now set to fill that trail-blazing role the make-up of the race does look similar to how it did with the defending champ still in it, which is the scenario I had envisioned and led to me backing Don Poli last march.

There’s an argument to be made that if they go a relentless gallop akin to last year that given Don Poli’s often lazy racing style he could become dangerously detached from proceedings. I take the view though that given the stamina doubts that still linger over the two main pace angles in the race that this year’s Gold Cup should set up perfectly for an out and out stayer like Don Poli.

It takes a plodder to win the Gold Cup usually and Don Poli is a plodder of the highest order. Festival form resurfaces year after year in March, and in spite of what he may have done during the season to date, one thing you can guarantee given his trainer is that he’ll be at his absolute peak for Cheltenham.

He doesn’t have to do it prettily he just has to do it, and Don Poli has proven on more than one occasion now that he’s got the intestinal fortitude to outlast his opponents when it comes to a battle. He may not win by far but he keeps on winning and ultimately that’s all that matters.

I honestly think it will take some serious efforts to keep him out of the frame and as such he rates a fantastic each way play at his current best price of 6/1.

Recommendation:

Don Poli 0.75pt each way @ 6/1 (Bet365, William Hill, 32Red) [NRNB]