Triumph Hurdle 2016 - Festival Focus

Victory Dance - Let's Dance taken to Triumph in Friday's opener.

The Triumph Hurdle is usually one of the more difficult races to approach ante-post at the Cheltenham festival, but with this year’s renewal looking the widest open of all the major races there is plenty of value to be had.

Last Saturday’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown quite often has a major bearing on the Triumph Hurdle market and this year is no exception as hot favourite Ivanovich Gorbatov was well and truly put in his place at the weekend.

It’s easy to say now, but he had looked woefully short for both based on what he had achieved to that point and the subsequent drift for the Triumph following Saturday’s comprehensive defeat sees his price more in line with where it should have been all along, though still remains too short in my humble opinion.

Other than the Aidan O’Brien trained favourite, Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Alan King have the top of the market sewn up for the juvenile feature. Alan King in particular looks to have a particularly strong hand with Sceau Royal looking the pick of his squadron to me, he is very slick over his obstacles and has impressed thus far, but he is now half the price of the other horse I like for this race so is bypassed on value grounds.

Horses have tasted defeat in the Spring Juvenile and gone on to win the Triumph – most recently Tiger Roll two years ago – and I fancy that could be the case again this year and I’m not talking about the favourite.

In fact I’m actually talking about the horse that was beaten at odds on by Ivanovich Gorbatov over Christmas.

Willie Mullins’ Let’s Dance has yet to gain a victory since joining the all conquering Irish Champion’s yard, but has run with promise on both occasions and, though beaten by both lesser fancied stable mates, was the eye-catcher of the race for me this past weekend.

Travelling strongly Let’s Dance looked to find nothing when things got serious in the straight, but was then staying on again at the finish to almost snatch second on the line.

This immediately screamed of a horse that wants further to me and you need to stay to win a Triumph, which she should being by the same sire as the likes of Don Poli, so an extra furlong and the Cheltenham hill therefore should be ideal come the 18th March.

The ground was so appalling in Ireland at the weekend you’d have to think that she’d improve for better ground at the festival, in which case if you’re excusing the favourite’s poor run on going grounds, Let’s Dance does not deserve to be a 16/1 shot.

She’ll get a handy mares allowance and though defeat by two stable mates last time out opens up the can of worms of what Ruby Walsh will select to ride in the race, she is at least an intended runner as owner Rich Ricci had suggested win, lose or draw at the weekend, she’d head for the Triumph.

If owner and trainer enjoy the week they are forecasted to have prior to the final day Let’s Dance has the look of a horse that could shorten up significantly in the betting, couple that with the possibility that Ruby does in fact elect to ride her and 16/1 could look a steal come 1.30pm on Gold Cup day.

It’s a volatile market and without the NRNB concession as yet there is a degree of risk to a bet in some of the novice and juvenile markets at present, but with risk comes reward and I’m happy to take a punt on the Spring Juvenile once again being the key piece of form for the Triumph and a beaten horse improving to win at Cheltenham.

It wouldn’t be the first time Mullins had peaked a horse for Cheltenham and it most certainly won’t be the last.

Recommendation:

Let’s Dance 0.5pt each way @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes)