National Hunt Chase 2016 - Festival Focus

Battle Royale - Southfield Royale is fancied in the 4-miler.

The National Hunt Chase or the 4-miler as it is more colloquially known was the first race I put a bet up for at this year’s Cheltenham Festival back at the start of the season when I posted my Ten To Follow for this jumps season and suggested Milsean was made for the race.

Well here we are just a week before the race and Milsean has not made an appearance this season having met with a set back and thus will not be lining up a week on Tuesday.

As a result I need to revisit the race and with the market thrown somewhat in to disarray of late with the news that long time favourite Black Hercules could be rerouted to a shorter trip and that crack, and in-demand, amateur Derek O’Connor has jumped off Colin Tizzard’s plodder extraordinaire Native River to ride new favourite and constant source of frustration Minella Rocco.

Roi Des Francs, also a mainstay a head of the market this season, is also reportedly off to pastures shorter, leaving the race looking there for the taking.

Step forward Neil Mulholland’s Southfield Royale, who, rather splendidly if you fancy him, will have the services of the mighty Nina Carberry for the race and who looks a cracking bet at a best price of 9/1 with the Non Runner No Bet concession.

A decent if not brilliant hurdler last season Southfield Royale has taken to the chasing game in the manner you would expect a Presenting horse to.

Being beaten on debut over the larger obstacles by a horse that has subsequently finished second in a Grade 2 is no disgrace, and he was closing on Twelve Roses all the way to the line that day over an inadequate trip marking himself out as a horse that wants a stamina test.

Stepped up to 3m on his next two starts he duly obliged by a combined 33l, his 20l hammering of the useful Zeroshadesofgrey at Wetherby really impressing.

He wasn’t unconsidered in the Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day but there were better fancied horses in the field including the aforementioned Native River and he ran a good race in defeat beating Native River in to third.

Making a bold sight out in front the track probably played more to the strengths of a horse with his best form at shorter trips given its speed favouring nature and a 4l defeat to Tea For Two again was no disgrace.

In spite of doing the donkey work he was still staying on at the end if not reaching the winner and in doing so suggested the 4-miler would be his race at the festival.

His trainer is adept at bringing along young emerging horses and he looks to still be improving, compare that with something like Rule The World who is shorter in some markets than Southfield Royale, even though that one, for all he is tough, has surely showed his hand over fences without ever tasting victory and you’d have to say for an unexposed, improving sort 9/1 is a great each way bet in a wide open race.

Obviously once the Mullins plans are firmed up, whatever Patrick rides will have to be respected but Mulholland’s move to secure Nina certainly suggests to me that a big run is expected from Southfield Royale, and with uncertainty still remaining over many at the head of the betting’s participation and major question marks over some of the favoured confirmed runners, Southfield Royale looks the stand out bet in the race at this stage to give his trainer a landmark success on day one of the festival.

Recommendation:

Southfield Royale 0.5pt each way @ 9/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred) [NRNB]