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| Cloudy With a Chance Again - Many Clouds has a great chance of making history. |
As has become tradition I’ve spent the last couple of weeks compiling a runner-by-runner guide for the big race, assessing each of the combatant’s chances of securing their place in history and winning the Grand National.
I’ve also highlighted a few of the horses I’ll be backing for the race so whether you’re after a tip, want to see if the horse your pin landed in or you got in the work sweep has any actual chance or just want to pick out a horse with a name that means something to you this is the guide for you!
The National remains a controversial race and sadly probably always will, and there will surely be the usual propaganda and out-of-context facts trotted out by it’s detractors, but the race remains the one time each year that horse racing captures the imagination of the wider public like it never can for the other 364 days of the year and as such should be celebrated for the incredible day it is.
It’s a great spectacle and statistically a much safer, and thus enjoyable, one since the modifications and hopefully that will remain the case this year as forty horses give their all as they tackle thirty unique obstacles in the greatest test of equine ability and jockeyship this great sport of ours has to offer.
So sit back, relax (and perhaps grab yourself a drink as this might take a while) as the field for the 2016 Grand National are put under the microscope.
1. Many Clouds – Last year’s winner and must have an excellent chance of emulating the mighty Red Rum and winning back to back renewals racing off just 5lbs higher than last year. Left disappointing reappearance in Charlie Hall behind in three subsequent starts this season chasing home Gold Cup third Don Poli at Aintree giving him 5lbs, before filling runner-up spot behind Hennessy winner Smad Place at Cheltenham in January. Impressive winner of Listed Kelso chase last time out giving weight away all round jumping well and all signs, including good record of National winners returning the following year, point to another huge run.
2. Silviniaco Conti – Dual King George hero that proved once and for all that Cheltenham is not his course when only seventh in the Gold Cup having been sent off favourite. Disappointing this season until wind operation following his King George defeat saw him bounce back to something like his best when runaway winner of Ascot Chase in February over 2m5f. Has very good record at this meeting on the Mildmay course having landed the Grade 1 Bowl for last two years as well as a Grade 2 Novice event back in 2012. Precision jumping has always suggested he’d take to the National fences and won both King Georges by outstaying his rivals, so providing he is back to near his best could be exceptionally well treated off officially 6lbs well in.
3. First Lieutenant – Perpetual bridesmaid that hasn’t won a race since taking the Bowl here in 2013. Multiple Graded placings since though, including the two Hennessys he’s contested in the last four years. Completed last year but could only manage 16th and his advancing years can only be a barrier to bettering that this time around. Talented on his day, but was pulled up in Irish Gold Cup last time out and would be some performance from all concerned if the race he finally got his head back in front in was the biggest of them all.
4. Wonderful Charm – Paul Nicholls inmate that doesn’t look particularly well-handicapped, even on the best of his form. Only seen once this season, when a well beaten second in a Cheltenham handicap back in December and has only won once since racking up a three-timer during his novice chase season two years back. Third in the race that precedes the National on this card last year, but pulled up in Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3m5f on only attempt at long distance event to date. Difficult to envision him getting involved here, but trainer did win this in 2012.
5. Ballynagour – Sent off a ridiculously short price for Festival Plate at Cheltenham in 2013 when a supposed handicap blot but ultimately disappointed. Duly made amends twelve months later in same race and placed in Grade 1 events at this meeting for the last two years including when narrowly touched off in the Bowl by Silviniaco Conti twelve months ago. Won valuable hurdles race at Auteuil at end of last season but has largely disappointed in staying chase campaign this time around since third to Cue Card in the Charlie Hall back in October. More promising signs though when seventh in Festival Plate off top weight at Cheltenham last time, still lightly raced for a ten-year-old, clearly talented on his day and good ground looks key to him but all told be bit of a shock were he able to win this.
6. O’Faolains Boy – 2014 RSA winner that missed all of last season through injury. Left poor comeback effort behind when a ready winner at Newbury in December but pulled up behind Smad Place and Many Clouds at Cheltenham in January and down the field back over hurdles at Chepstow in February. Travelled well for a long way in the Gold Cup before fading in to a distant seventh and tough to see him landing a blow here. Plenty of talent, sound jumper and Newbury win shows the fire still burns but it’d take a brave man on the majority of this season’s form to suggest he can recapture former glories in a race as competitive as this.
7. Gilgamboa – Grade 1 winner but tends to always come up short at the highest level, talented horse nonetheless and has right connections for a race of this nature. Below best this season though and remains winless since taking that Grade 1 novice event at Punchestown at the end of last season. Been campaigned over variety of distances but always appealed as a stayer and has been running on at the end of his races this season without ever troubling the speedier types. Jumps well and could be one to run in to a place if taking to the course.
8. On His Own - Really admirable veteran that’s been a credit to connections. Likely to be having his last run here and despite advancing years is no lost cause. Fell on both previous attempts at the National but sent off second favourite in 2013 so one that has clearly been well thought of for the race in the past. Age against him now in all likelihood but that hasn’t stopped him placing in Graded events over last two seasons and was only denied by the narrowest of margins in 2014 Gold Cup. Jockey gets on well with him and in spite of his previous misfortune round here it’d be no surprise to see him give a good account.
9. The Druids Nephew – Travelling like the winner when coming down in front at the 26th last year. That was likely his big chance at this having been so well in at the weights following his runaway success at Cheltenham the previous month, but in spite of him not being as well treated this time around it’s hard to forget how eye-catching he was before his unlucky departure twelve months ago. Well below best on two starts towards tail end of 2015 but has surely been campaigned with this in mind and caught the eye running a good trial for this with runner-up effort behind The Last Samuri in the Grimthorpe last time out, running on well from the back. Impossible to leave out of calculations and with better luck this time around should go well once again.
10. Triolo D’Alene – Won the Topham on this course in 2013 but pulled up when reasonably well considered for this a year later following his impressive Hennessy win earlier that season. Absent for over a year when returning with wide margin Kempton win in 3-runner affair back in January but failed to build on that when well beaten in Ascot Chase behind Silviniaco Conti next time out. Still only nine though and previous course win a major plus, but struggling a long way out on his only National start. Better age for it now, jumps the fences and certainly stays so if bounce factor at play for Ascot stuffing last time out wouldn’t be without a chance.
11. Rocky Creek – My idea of the winner of this for the last two years and jumped like a stag before just tiring on the run in two years ago but massively disappointing as second favourite twelve months ago when never really travelling and losing place a long way out before trailing home seventeenth. Very possible has had too many chances in the race now, especially after being so well treated last year following his Betbright Chase romp after the weights announcement. Badly out of form this season thus far though, other than comeback run at Down Royal when he chased home subsequent Gold Cup winner Don Cossack. Very difficult to make a case for this time around given form he’s in but jumping is an asset and he has at least completed on both attempts.
12. Sir Des Champs – Enhanced excellent Cheltenham record (won at two previous festivals) when second in 2013 Gold Cup and winner of multiple Grade 1s. Returned from near two year absence through injury with Listed win at Thurles back in November but hasn’t gone on from that since, finishing down the field in Grade 1 Lexus and Irish Gold Cup. Well treated on best of his form and still only ten, but would be some performance were he able to taste victory here. Would put nothing past his genius trainer however and no surprise to see him run well.
13. Holywell – Spent a good portion of summer before last as favourite for the Gold Cup on the back of good novice campaign, winning four in a row including Grade 1 at this meeting slamming recent Gold Cup winner Don Cossack no less by 10l. Didn’t really go on as expected but did finish a respectable fourth in last year’s Gold Cup before finishing third here in the Grade 1 bowl. Disappointing this season, but handicap mark has plummeted as a result and took advantage when a good second in a handicap at Cheltenham. Comes alive at this time of year and now officially 4lbs well in after that Cheltenham effort. Jumping has let him down in the past but trainer knows how to get one ready for this and he looks handicapped to run a big race.
14. Shutthefrontdoor – Sent off favourite twelve months ago to give Sir AP McCoy a win with his last National ride but only managed fifth, a great run nonetheless. McCoy factor the main driving force behind his price last year but as a former Irish National winner and running so well last year the horse must merit serious consideration again. Only seen twice since last year’s race however and hasn’t exactly looked in the form of his life finishing third over hurdles before pulling up over two and a half miles last time out. Campaign will have been completely geared around this though and races from 3lb lower than last year.
15. Soll – Big, brute of a horse that was well fancied for this twelve months ago. Ran well for a long way up with the pace, before fading late on to finish a well beaten 9th. Much worse off at the weights this time around and now an eleven-year-old so suspicion would be that he’s had his chance. Did show ability still there with fourth in the Becher over this course earlier in season before landing Veterans’ series Final at Sandown in January, stuffed at Kelso since though. Also completed this in 2013 when seventh and made it round in Topham in 2014 so plenty of experience of the course and no surprise to see him get round again but minor honours probably best he can hope for now all things considered.
16. Buywise – Enigmatic sort that has consistently frustrated his band of followers with his late-rallying run style. Lightly raced for a nine-year-old and usually hitting the frame, his staying on efforts have marked him out as a horse that might appreciate this marathon trip. One large problem round Aintree though could be his inability to adequately jump a fence, and unless all thirty fences are somehow omitted he will likely blunder away his chance. Would not surprise one iota was he picking off beaten horses at the elbow but a place is surely the best he can hope for jumping as he does and he hasn’t won over fences for almost two years now, his two victories in that time coming over hurdles.
17. Boston Bob – A horse I’ve followed off the cliff and back again and guess what, he’s starting to look appealing again (I’ll never learn). Was a top class novice hurdler but has largely frustrated over larger obstacles since his novice campaign, which itself rather tapered off towards the end. I still believe he’d have won the RSA in 2013 had he not fallen at the last and he justified my unwavering faith when winning the Melling on the Mildmay over two and a half at this meeting and then lifting the Punchestown Gold Cup later that same month back in 2014. Had been winless since, until victory in leading Irish trial for this race last time out when beating stable mate On His Own by a head. Goes well on spring ground and his hold up run style has always suggested the National might be within his wheelhouse, often looking outpaced at the top level. Looks well handicapped on his best form following barren spell.
18. Aachen – Admirable veteran for Venetia Williams, who won this with 100/1 shot Mon Mome in 2009 so rule her horses out at your peril. Probably had his day in the sun though now at twelve but did win back to back races in December including a valuable Cheltenham handicap. Narrow second behind Soll in Sandown Veterans’ Final in January would give him somewhat of a chance here but twice well beaten since and tends to thrive, as is the case with many of his trainer’s horses, when the mud is flying. With father time against him and ground unlikely to be in his favour it’s tough to really make a case for him.
19. Morning Assembly – Grade 1 winning hurdler that has a novice chase victory over Gold Cup winner Don Cossack to his name. Also placed twice at Grade 1 level as a novice chaser, including a third in the RSA at Cheltenham. Returned from mammoth injury lay off of almost two years with agonisingly tight defeat at Fairyhouse at the end of January and followed up with a respectable second in a Grade 2. Ran well to take fourth in a hot handicap at Cheltenham last month (Holywell second). Could be well treated if back to his best and has looked something like being since return, pick of form has come on easier surface but does have form on decent ground and could go well off this mark if fully back to health.
20. Double Ross – Front-running Cheltenham specialist that was sent off a very well backed favourite for the Grand Sefton on this course back in December. Bold-jumping style had suited the rigours of the National course previously having run well for a long way in 2014 Topham but ultimately proved very disappointing this time around and now winless now since January 2014. Has run with merit in some hot handicaps during this drought though, but since his lucrative 2013-2014 season has largely been inconsistent. Seemed to run out of steam when beaten in the Topham so tough to envision him seeing out the National trip, but could give a bold show out in front for a while.
21. Goonyella – My long range pick for the race as far back as last summer following good win in Midlands National and narrow defeat in Scottish version at the end of last season. Sparingly raced and a thorough stayer, he has been campaigned all season with this race in mind which hopefully explains his rather poor efforts since those two big National performances last year. More signs of life the last twice though when fourth over hurdles and runner-up back over fences, both over inadequate trips so hopefully building to a big performance here. Best form is on bad ground but Scottish National second was on good quick spring ground, a slight worry however would be how badly he has performed at Aintree on his two visits to date. He unseated at the first in the Becher in 2014 before running no sort of race in the same contest twelve months on, he did at least complete second time around though. Trainer is a dab hand with these staying types and providing he doesn’t get too far back he looks handicapped to go close.
22. Ucello Conti – Unlucky not to land two big handicap pots over the winter when filling places in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown and the Thyestes Chase at Gowran. Covered huge amount of extra ground in the latter having gone wide throughout and performance probably deserves marking up quite a bit as a result. Extremely lightly raced and has still only had three runs for Gordon Elliot, jumped out at a lot of people from decent mark when weights were revealed and could be somewhat of a handicap blot for his shrewd trainer. All form on soft ground or worse however and though ran well in big field handicaps the last twice may just lack a bit of experience for something like the National. Interesting contender though that I wouldn’t put anyone off.
23. Unioniste – Reasonably well fancied twelve months ago when coming down at the fifth, this Paul Nicholls grey has seemingly been around forever having landed Cheltenham’s December Gold Cup off a feather weight as only a four-year-old back in 2012. Has been well talked up for staying events since and has twice won on Aintree’s Mildmay Course in his career to date. National Course record is less stellar though having only managed eighth in this season’s Becher in addition to his fall in this last year. Hadn’t won for over twelve months when taking Ivan Straker Memorial Chase at Kelso reasonably impressively back in February but subsequently well and truly put in his place at same course by Many Clouds. No back number on best form, but hit and miss at best these days and though a more suitable age now trends-wise, recent efforts in decent company and poor National Course record temper enthusiasm.
24. Le Reve – Sandown specialist that supposedly can’t go left handed, which doesn’t bode well for Aintree. Enhanced already impressive Sandown record when landing Betfred Masters Handicap Chase there back in February, but has since been well beaten at Kempton in the Betbright Chase. Did run okay at Doncaster in January having been set a nigh on impossible task by his jockey to somewhat dispel the course alignment preference theory but poor record at the likes of Cheltenham and Newbury as opposed to his form at Kempton and Sandown makes for relatively grim reading. Not out of it on best form but enthusiasm would be far greater were this run at Sandown. Has never lined up at Aintree before, has no course experience and though by no means handicapped out of it looks to have a task on his hands everything taken in to account.
25. Gallant Oscar – Lightly raced ten-year-old for connections that always need a second look in races such as this. Trainer Tony Martin as shrewd as they come and a dab hand at ‘plotting one up’ for a big handicap; less easy to do that in something like the National with the unique weight structure but anything he runs warrants respect nonetheless. Third in a red hot Cheltenham Festival handicap behind The Druids Nephew last year he was also fourth to dual Gold Cup runner up Djakadam in the Thyestes at Gowran in January 2015 giving his form a strong look. Has won a couple of competitive big field handicaps but doesn’t get his head in front that much, has generally been on the premises in his races since joining Tony Martin though and campaign this term looks to have been geared around this race. On form of last season he’s a big player but has been less taking this season, rule out at your peril with these connections however.
26. Onenightinvienna – Philip Hobbs novice bidding to become first novice to win the race since 1958. Was a decent bumper performer and enjoyed fruitful novice hurdle campaign last season. Form had been as strong if not more so over fences this term until well beaten at Ascot last time out, did get racing early enough that day though which probably led to his downfall and the form took a couple of significant boosts at Cheltenham. Chased home subsequent RSA winner Blaklion at Cheltenham in December but general lack of experience is surely a big barrier to success here. Looks tailor made for the race in time though so well worth watching with an eye to future editions of the world’s greatest race. Likely beyond him at this stage of his career but perhaps telling connections opt to give it a go and stranger things have happened.
27. The Last Samuri – Taken form to new levels this season since joining National-winning trainer Kim Bailey as part of the major exodus of all Paul and Clare Rooney’s horses from Donald McCain. Had shown fair level of form over both hurdles and fences for McCain, but placed effort in Newcastle’s Listed Rehearsal Chase and win at Kempton over Christmas marked him out as a potentially live contender for this race for his new trainer. Grimthorpe Chase win at Doncaster at beginning of March once weights for this were announced (beating The Druids Nephew convincingly – albeit getting weight) confirmed this promise and he is now officially 12lb well in as a result. Doesn’t jump all that well which could find him out around Aintree but does nothing but stay and should be involved at the business end of affairs if putting in a clear round off a very favourable mark.
28. Kruzhlinin – Another Rooney defector from the McCain yard, now in the care of Philip Hobbs. Completed this in 2014, finishing a never nearer 10th behind Pineau De Re, but solid experience of the rigours of the race and seventh in 2014 Becher also added to National Course experience. Won first time out for new trainer at Kempton in January, staying on well to beat Le Reve, before highly respectable fifth place finish in red hot Cheltenham handicap at the festival. Three yards in just over four years suggests he’s perhaps not the easiest to train but with a master now and though arguably not as well handicapped as his owners’ other runner, looks a solid proposition you could do a lot worse than backing.
29. Rule The World – Incredibly still a novice over fences but has run some excellent races in defeat, including when second in last year’s Irish National. Grade 2 winner over hurdles and was second to The New One in 2013 Neptune at Cheltenham. Second in five of his seven races over larger obstacles last season and unlucky not to have got off the mark yet. Be some story if first win came at Aintree but winless record over fences aside there is plenty of encouragement he could be a player. Form in these big field staying handicaps is rock solid, would have gone close in Galway Plate last summer but for slipping up on the flat and third to stable mate Rogue Angel in the Kerry National last September now reads extremely well following that one’s exploits in the Irish National just last week. Has also been fifth in the Thyestes this season, as well as chasing home the ill-fated No More Heroes in a Grade 1. Less to be excited about last time out when well beaten at Naas but has rock solid place claims off a decent mark even if winning as a novice could be rather fanciful.
30. Just A Par – Good novice hurdler for Paul Nicholls (was second to Many Clouds on only second rules start) that had never quite lived up to expectations until landing Bet365 Gold Cup last season under inspired ride from Sean Bowen. Trainer originally seemed to have high hopes for him over fences but endured largely disappointing novice campaign, including trailing in last of six here in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase two years ago. Did plenty of racing last season and ran well for the most part if not setting world alight, did pull up in the Becher on this course when second favourite though. Been disappointing again this season, but that big Sandown win at end of last season would give hope he’ll handle the competitive nature of the National and better run last time out not long since suggests he might be coming good again at a time of year he’s run well at before. Plenty of others appeal more including others from trainer’s own yard but not one that you’d rule out with supreme confidence.
31. Katenko – Formerly promising Venetia Williams inmate that has been blighted by problems. Wins at Sandown and in a strong Cheltenham handicap in January 2013 had some heralding him as a potential Gold Cup horse in time but little gone right since having battled back from colic amongst other things. Only raced three times in last two years and his form in that time reads PP0. Trailed in a distant 13th on last start in strong Cheltenham festival handicap and though trainer won this with longshot in 2009, unless someone somehow builds a time machine and brings the 2013 version of this horse in to 2016 with them he looks to have a mountain to climb.
32. Vics Canvas – Likeable, veteran Irish raider that was an excellent second to Just A Par in last season’s Bet365 Gold Cup. Went chasing unusually late in career but has made a good fist of things over fences, including winning the Cork National in November 2014. Third in the Paddy Power Chase the following month he was reasonably well fancied for last year’s Irish National but fell at the first obstacle. Duly made amends with that Sandown run at the end of last season but largely disappointing to date this time around, other than a decent fifth in the Becher on this course back in December. Pulled up in the Thyestes and only sixth in the Bobbyjo since would temper confidence but will stay and has had a good spin round here before. Tough to see him putting in a career best at thirteen though.
33. Black Thunder – Decent hurdler for Paul Nicholls that made really good start to chase career winning his first three starts over fences. Never quite built on that though, consistently coming up short at the top level with only a Listed Sandown win at odds on coming in the last two years. Fell in 2014 RSA but was second in valuable Ascot handicap later that year and not disgraced behind The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham last year when seventh in big opening day handicap. Disappointing this season though including when unseating in the Welsh National back at the start of the year. Stamina shouldn’t be an issue but his jumping might be if put under pressure as all his incompletions have come in fiercely competitive races at the highest level. Trainer can never be ruled out but looks unlikely that he’ll regain the winning thread after so long in a race like the National.
34. Ballycasey – Typical Willie Mullins-Rich Ricci horse that was hyped as the second coming early in his career. Somewhat justified lofty expectations initially though, only tasting defeat once in first six starts under rules including a Grade 1 win over current Gold Cup champion Don Cossack. Was duly when sent off joint favourite for O’Faolains Boy’s RSA but could only manage fourth and was then runner up behind Carlingford Lough in that season’s Punchestown equivalent. Won on following seasonal reappearance in November 2014 but wheels well and truly come off since and has not got his head in front subsequently. Has slipped to really attractive handicap mark as a result and though too early to really tell, had done nothing wrong in this last year when unfortunate to be brought down in the melee that injured Balthazar King. Fifth in strong Cheltenham handicap last month shows the fire still burns and though always promised so much but not quite delivered, is one that could give a good account if getting the breaks racing from an eye-catching mark.
35. Hadrian’s Approach – Lightly raced nine-year-old that looks well treated as a former Bet365 Gold Cup winner if you can look past his often suspect jumping. Beat The Druids Nephew on first chase start and was subsequently twice placed at Grade 1 level that season, including when third in the RSA at Cheltenham. Unseated when quietly fancied for the following season’s Hennessy and though only midfield in good Cheltenham handicap subsequently, bounced right back to form landing the aforementioned big end of season prize at Sandown. Only raced twice last season, disappointing on both occasions, comeback run from over a year off back in February this year not without promise though finishing seventh in the Betbright Chase at Kempton. Off a good mark on pick of his form but dodgy jumping and recent problems don’t inspire confidence in his chance and though trainer has been enjoying fine campaign bringing formerly top class horses back from injury, were he to pull this off it just might be his best training performance yet.
36. Vieux Lion Rouge – Made brilliant start to career with David Pipe only tasting defeat twice in first eight rules starts for the Pond House handler (two defeats both coming at Cheltenham Festival). Made similarly hot start over fences, winning first three, including latterly valuable Haydock handicap in good style. Fell at Cheltenham in December when sent off favourite and never looked convincing when well held at Ascot time before last. Solid effort when sixth in the four-miler at Cheltenham last month but this much tougher and he’ll need to improve a good deal to get on terms. Still only a novice though so potential he will, but inexperienced for a race of this nature and jumping hasn’t always convinced. Majority of best form on bad ground also a worry but did win two summer jumps races in 2015. Not a lost cause but it would be some training performance from legendary yard if they can pull it off with this one.
37. Pendra – Interesting contender that’s always threatened to land a big pot and looks attractively treated to do so yet again. Well backed and well fancied for Coral Cup at Cheltenham three years ago but failed to live up to the hype, good efforts in hurdles up until then though and in chases after, including third in first day handicap at Cheltenham two years ago, followed that up with tenth place finish in Irish National so should stay. Missed a lot of last season but still managed fifth in hot Cheltenham handicap on day one again. Returned this season with good win in Ascot’s Grade 3 Sodexo Gold Cup but only fifth in Listed Silver version in December. Not seen since, but well weighted and no surprise to see him run well if fully seeing out the marathon trip.
38. Saint Are – Last year’s runner up and leaps off the page at the weights. Also completed (9th) in 2013 and has also placed in a Becher and won twice at this meeting on the Mildmay previously too, including a Grade 1 hurdle win. Lost his way towards the end of his time with Tim Vaughan but rejuvenated since move to Tom George’s yard. Place on every start last season, including good Catterick win as well as chasing home Many Clouds in this running out of his skin having been up with the pace throughout. Jumping was a little sticky at times but clearly loves Aintree and the National course and must have a great chance of bucking the trend and improving on last year’s effort. Far from disgraced in two efforts at tail end of 2015 in a Cheltenham Cross Country and the Becher (7th) again and back to winning ways last time out at Doncaster once weights for this were published. Officially well in and huge chance of making the frame again, having reportedly also had a wind op since last run.
39. Home Farm – Irish raider now with top trainer Henry De Bromhead that has good record in big field handicaps. Placed in the Irish National in 2013 but pulled up in the same race twelve months later. Has also run well in a Paddy Power Chase but mainly been campaigned at the highest level since joining his current yard. Pulled up in the Gold Cup last year and generally well beaten when completing last term, has had hurdles only campaign this time around though suggesting this has been the plan all year. In on a good mark considering how highly tried he is, but not really shown any sort of spark for eighteen months or so now and only has one win to his name in the last three years. No forlorn hope but looks up against it on recent form unless he’s been completely plotted up for this, which isn’t exactly his trainer’s style.
40. The Romford Pele – Decent hurdler for Rebecca Curtis that was far from disgraced in against some good horses during novice chase campaign two seasons ago. Enjoyed fruitful summer campaign over fences in 2014, but without a win now since October of that year. Not at his best chasing at start of the season but more promise on two runs this year back over hurdles, chasing home World Hurdle-winning machine Thistlecrack at Cheltenham in January before a respectable eighth in the fiercely competitive Coral Cup at the festival last month. Should stay and form generally consistent, trainer also has a good record with these type of horses and no surprise were he to out run his odds and make the frame if probably not being quite good enough to win.
Verdict:
It’s a boring place to start but last year’s winner, and this year’s probable favourite, Many Clouds looks to have a rock solid chance of making history and winning back to back runnings of the world’s greatest race. He’s well treated due to the compressed handicap compared to if this race was a traditional handicap, comes here arguably in better form than twelve months ago and crucially has been targeted at the race this season, whereas last year it was more of an afterthought. He’s versatile ground-wise and other than top weight, and big weights are becoming less and less of a barrier to success in the race, it is difficult to pick too many holes in his chance.
This is the Grand National though and luck needs to be on your side and there are plenty of solid alternatives to last year’s history-chasing winner and at a single figure price he doesn’t really stack up as a bet I can recommend.
Silviniaco Conti also looks to hold excellent claims off a very favourable mark with his precision jumping likely to be a big asset round Aintree, but he’s not far behind Many Clouds in the betting at the time of writing so there is perhaps better value to be had elsewhere.
The Druids Nephew will surely also prove popular given how well he was travelling before coming down last year, but that is perhaps clouding people’s judgement somewhat and he doesn’t look to be arriving in the same form as twelve months ago and is now much worse off at the weights. It’d be no surprise to see him go well for a long way, but again at the prices there are some others that stand out more.
So like a sucker attention is turned to my old friend BOSTON BOB who has long appealed as a horse that might appreciate a marathon trip given how outpaced he often gets in the top races. He usually hits form at this time of year and looks very well treated on the best of his form, a win last time out only adds to his appeal and though he is the definition of a cliff horse for me, he genuinely looks to hold solid claims.
The ground may put an end to the chance of my longest term fancy for the race GOONYELLA as he would ideally want it much softer than it is likely to be, he did however run exceptionally well in last season’s Scottish version of this on good ground. His Aintree record would be a worry but he’s been campaigned specifically for this race for almost a year now and it’s hard to forget his two performances in marathon events this time twelve months ago. He looks to be coming back to the boil just at the right time and I can’t let him go unbacked, with any rain between now and the off only of benefit to his chances.
Of the remainder, last year’s runner-up SAINT ARE looks to have plenty going for him in his bid to go one better than last year carrying less weight this time around. Reported recent tinkering with his breathing should surely only aid his cause in seeing out the trip that little bit stronger than twelve months ago and a recent win would give you major hope he arrives in every bit as good a form as last year.
While as a more speculative shot, RULE THE WORLD, in spite of still being a novice over fences, has plenty of form in the book that would give him an excellent chance of running a big race here if he takes to the course. It’s a huge ask as a novice but that is surely factored in to his price and the National is a race built on improbable stories.
1-2-3-4-5:
1. Many Clouds
2. Boston Bob
3. Goonyella
4. Saint Are
5. Rule The World
Recommendations:
Boston Bob 0.25pt each way @ 25/1 (Bet365) [5 Places] [NRNB]
Goonyella 0.25pt each way @ 20/1 (Paddy Power) [5 Places] [NRNB]
Saint Are 0.25pt each way @ 16/1 (Bet365, Sky Bet) [5 Places] [NRNB]
Rule The World 0.25pt each way @ 40/1 (Bet Victor) [6 Places] [NRNB]
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