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| 2011 July Cup winner Dream Ahead beating Bated Breath & Hoof It in the Sprint Cup. |
Another Saturday, another Group 1.
This week sees Newmarket’s July Festival take place, the highlight of which is Saturday’s Darley July Cup, won last year by Dream Ahead with Hayley Turner winning her first Group 1 on board the now retired colt.
This year’s renewal looks as competitive as ever and several horses hold a great chance of landing the spoils. With the final field yet to be finalised the market and make-up of the race could yet change drastically; and with the deluge we’re currently experiencing in Britain that more than likely will happen.
Below though are short comments and analysis of each horse’s chance as things stand at the five day stage:
Bated Breath – Arguably the UK’s top sprinter at present, however still chasing that elusive first Gp1 win. Beaten ½l by Dream Ahead in this last year and then beaten by same horse by just a nose in the Sprint Cup at Haydock in September. International campaign in the winter was disappointing but right back to best when posting hugely impressive display in Gp2 Temple Stakes at Haydock on seasonal reappearance on favoured quick ground. Some debate over Royal Ascot target but eventually opting for the King’s Stand and found only Hong Kong raider Little Bridge too good that day on Good to Soft ground. Worth his place at the head of the market on form but soft ground would be a concern.
Dandy Boy – Impressive winner of the Wokingham at Royal Ascot winning in a quicker time that Black Caviar posted in the Jubilee. That win without a doubt a career best performance but supplementation to the race by connections shows confidence in his ability to improve again and make the leap from handicaps to Group company as so many have done before. Will need to improve again to land this and suspicion that Wokingham win might have been a fluke when looking at previous form but has been supported in the market and is an unknown quantity ground-wise; one to keep an eye on.
Elnawin – Well beaten in Gp3 Coral Charge last weekend over 5f and also engaged at Newbury same day as this race so looking an unlikely runner. If he was to take his chance he’d need to improve drastically to be competitive as without a win for over a year now and Group race record patchy to say the least.
Genki – Admirable performer, but very much Roger Charlton’s second string behind Bated Breath. Winless since landing Gp3 Chipchase at Newcastle last June and could only manage 11th in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot last month. Sixth in this last year though and consistently sniffing around the places in Group races for remainder of the year. Has looked well below his best this year though and although it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see him snatch a place he looks up against it.
Hawkeyethenoo – You’ll have to forgive my bias here as Hawkeyethenoo is one of my favourite horses in training. Scottish-trained flying machine who has been a consistent sort in handicaps for few years now and deserving of a first crack at Group race glory on the back of a strong-finishing third in the Wokingham behind Dandy Boy when meeting trouble in running. Last win was in 2011 Victoria Cup and disappointed when bidding for repeat in that race this year. Will be a huge surprise to see him good enough to hang with some of these but could outrun big odds, if that’s not a case of heart ruling head.
Hitchens – Made step up to Group company in 2011, including when landing Gp3 at the Curragh last May. Outclassed in Group races here though apart from when surprise third in this last year. Campaigned in Dubai over the winter and landed a second Gp3 when beating Krypton Factor in the Al Shindagha Sprint over this distance in February. Subsequently beaten twice by that horse, including when fourth in Golden Shaheen; and only fourth on European return at The Curragh in May. Not completely ruled out at a price but soft ground would be a big concern.
Hoof It – Popular horse co-owned by Lee Westwood, who progressed rapidly through handicap ranks in 2011 to become one of the UK’s top sprinters by end of the year. Posted unbelievable performance when carrying huge weight to victory in Goodwood’s Stewards Cup last July, earning crack at Group level races. Below best when sixth in Gp1 Nunthorpe when slowly away and bitterly unlucky when only third in Gp1 Sprint Cup after being badly hampered. Well below par in two runs so far this season when fifth both times, first time looking in need of the run and last time out being unsuited by extended trip. Those two runs should have him spot on for this, so no excuses if he doesn’t deliver; a contender if back on song and could be over-priced.
Krypton Factor – Formerly trained by Sir Mark Prescott in this country, has developed in to smart Group race performer since joining Bahrain-based Fawzi Nass. Took Gp1 Golden Shaheen at Meydan in March when seeing off Rocket Man but failed to fire when only sixth in the Diamond Jubilee last month, suspicion he wouldn’t have liked the ground that day and with more of the same forecast for Saturday he could struggle again. Top international performer though so would be no surprise to see him involved.
Libranno – Richard Hannon four-year-old who has become a bit of a 7f specialist. Took Gp3 Criterion Stakes two weeks ago beating Hoof It and had previously taken listed race at Salisbury to snap losing streak dating back to August. Hat-trick bid looks far trickier though and with suspicion he is best over 7f and soft ground being a concern looks to have it all to do.
Mayson – Richard Fahey four-year-old who became a bit of a talking horse when landing back to back races earlier in the season, including Gp3 Palace House Stakes over 5f. Well-beaten in two Group races since though and soft ground again a concern; would take a career-best performance to make an impact here.
Sepoy – Fascinating contender for Godolphin making first start since switching from Australia. Has winning form over this distance in some good races down under and that must make him a contender. Disappointed when last seen in Dubai though and you’re taking a risk with so many unknowns about him on these shores but really interesting that he’s pitched in here for his first European run; respected.
Sirius Prospect – Good handicap performer, winning four in a row at end of last season. Disappointing so far this campaign, well beaten in two listed contests and then two Group contests; seventh in Gp1 Diamond Jubilee last time out not a disgrace but would need to make huge improvement to get involved in this.
Society Rock – Last year’s Golden Jubilee winner and second in same race year before. Never quite equalled those performances in Group contests elsewhere but the way this year’s race unfolded would suggest had he not missed the break that he’d have been there or there abouts at the finish. Well beaten in this in 2010, but on best performances has to be considered, although suspicion remains he saves big runs for Ascot.
Soul – Another former Australian horse from Godolphin. Won good handicap at Meydan in March and decent unplaced efforts in Group races since switching to the UK including when fourth in Diamond Jubilee last month; however looks more likely to run at Newbury than Newmarket on Saturday too.
Strong Suit – Another very interesting contender now dropped back down in trip. Has four Group race victories to his name already including two highly impressive Gp2 wins over 7f last season. Got no luck at Breeder’s Cup in November and well below best when firmly put in his place behind the mighty Frankel at Royal Ascot last time out. Capable of being a major player on pick of form but hasn’t looked himself of late and ground is again a concern, plus my personal suspicion is that hold-up style of running will be of detriment here; can’t be ruled out but others better value.
The Cheka – Admirable performer from Eve Johnson Houghton yard whose finest hour came when landing Haydock Gp3 last May. Second behind useful Tiddliwinks in Gp2 Duke of York earlier this season but well beaten in Diamond Jubilee last time out. Not completely out of place in this company but surely just a supporting player and will find several of these too good.
Ortensia – The other Aussie mare who made the trip for Royal Ascot who had gone from strength to strength since joining up and coming young trainer Paul Messara. Won Gp1 Al Quoz Spring at Meydan in March in impressive fashion but disappointed spectacularly at Royal Ascot when ninth in the King’s Stand. Got really worked up that day though and it’s been suggested that was her undoing. Soft ground was a concern at Ascot though and that is obviously an issue once again but the booking of man of the moment William Buick for the ride is really interesting and she looks to have outstanding each way claims on her best form.
Power – Another fascinating potential runner. One of Aidan O’Brien’s top three-year-olds who enjoyed a fantastic juvenile campaign last year. Huge disappointment in 2000 Guineas on first start this season but more than made up for that with win in Irish equivalent next time out. Lost all chance when hampered in St. James’s Palace over 1m at Royal Ascot last time out and has Group race form over this distance. Very intriguing to see him dropped back in trip and if taking his chance has to be respected.
Reply – Second O’Brien three-year-old still with an entry although you have to think Power will be first choice runner so will probably only go if that horse does. Pick of form are thirds in Gp1 Irish Guineas (behind Power) and last year’s Middle Park over this distance. Will almost certainly find this too tough against older horses if running.
After – Third O’Brien three-year-old this time from the fillies division so would get big pull at weights if running but even on best of her form has no chance here.
Fire Lily – Another Irish three-year-old, this one from David Wachman yard. Holds After on two Gp3 victories and has placed efforts to her name in several other Group races. Again this looks far too tough though and although consistent she’ll do well to get in the places here.
July Cup – Best Odds:
Bated Breath 7/2
Society Rock 7/1
Ortensia 10/1
Strong Suit 11/1
Power 12/1
Dandy Boy 14/1
Hoof It 14/1
Sepoy 14/1
Libranno 16/1
Sirius Prospect 20/1
Soul 20/1
Krypton Factor 20/1
Fire Lily 20/1
Mayson 25/1
Hitchens 33/1
The Cheka 33/1
Reply 33/1
Genki 50/1
Hawkeyethenoo 50/1
Elnawin 50/1
After 66/1
Verdict:
Competitive stuff, Bated Breath is the clear form pick but with concerns about the ground and his inability to seemingly land the big one at 7/2 he’s worth taking on. The ground is going to be an issue for several of these though including Ortensia who still must have a great each way chance if handling proceedings a lot better than she did at Ascot; Power, Strong Suit and Sepoy look the other likeliest contenders if handling the ground.
My preference though is for Hoof It who again may not like the ground but looks over-priced at 14/1 on the pick of his form. He’s not been at his best this season but I’m willing to keep the faith one last time…
…My heart won’t let me get away without also having a little each-way bet on Hawkeyethenoo at 50/1 either.
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